Marlins at Padres Picks and MLB Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 5/6/2013
It's the series we've been waiting all baseball season for: Marlins at Padres in a huge three-game set that begins Monday night at Petco Park. Yeah, not so much. But anyone can preview the big games in MLB -- it takes talent and determination to dig up relevant betting facts on two dregs of the league. Hey, this game could determine the top pick in the 2014 draft! One never knows.
Do you realize that the Marlins and Padres have never been really good at the same time? Miami has reached the playoffs twice since joining MLB in 1993, and the Fish won the World Series in 1997 and 2003. The Padres were well under .500 both of those years. San Diego has reached the postseason four times since the Marlins began play: 1996, '98, 2005 & '06. The Marlins finished over .500 in just one of those years and it was barely (83-79) in 2005.
Both franchises are currently in cost-cutting rebuilding mode this year despite playing in two of the newest stadiums in baseball and in warm-weather locales that would seem to be a big lure for free agents. Each team has one excellent player that other teams would love to pry away -- Miami outfielder Giancarlo Stanton and San Diego third baseman Chase Headley -- and not much else. While Stanton is almost a lock to leave via trade (my prediction is to prospect-rich Texas next offseason), the Padres are prepared to give Headley the biggest deal in franchise history.
The Marlins won five of six meetings last year between these teams, including a three-game sweep in San Diego.
Marlins at Padres Betting Story Lines
Miami is 3-3 since putting Stanton on the disabled list with a Grade 2 strained right hamstring that will sideline him for more than the 15 days -- probably all of May at a minimum. He was hurt Monday. It's a shame because Stanton had gotten off to a horrendous start but homered last Saturday and then had four hits, two homers and three RBI last Sunday. He's at .227 with three homers and nine RBI on the season. Stanton missed five games earlier this year with a bruised left shoulder.
One of Miami's top prospects, 22-year-old Marcell Ozuna, was called up from Double-A and has taken Stanton's spot in right field. The Marlins can afford to play inexperienced prospects because they have no illusions of winning this year. Ozuna is hitting .478 with a homer and four RBI in 23 at-bats. Another of the team's top prospects is shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, who was acquired in that big offseason Blue Jays trade and was arguably the most important piece. He missed a few weeks but returned from the DL on Thursday. He's hitting just .190 but tied a team-record with seven RBI in Sunday's win over the Phillies. Miami could be good in a couple of years.
Lefty Wade LeBlanc (0-4, 6.23) gets the call for Miami. He has allowed eight earned runs and 16 hits over 11.2 innings in his past two starts. He only has one quality start all year and has lost seven straight decisions dating to last August. LeBlanc could be headed to the bullpen when Henderson Alvarez, who was also acquired in that trade with the Blue Jays, is activated off the DL. That could be by next week. LeBlanc pitched 2.2 innings of relief against the Padres a year ago and didn't allow a hit or run. No Padre has more than three at-bats against him. Headley struck out in his lone at-bat.
San Diego counters with big right-hander Andrew Cashner (1-2, 4.24). He has big-time stuff and huge upside but has trouble staying healthy. He was a former first-round pick of the Cubs who was acquired by San Diego in the Anthony Rizzo trade. Cashner's average fastball velocity (around 94.8 mph) is No. 2 in the NL this year. Control can be a problem as he had four walks and allowed five runs in four innings in his last start, against the Cubs. Cashner had two relief appearances against Miami last year and allowed four runs and four hits in one inning. Marlins first baseman Greg Dobbs has the lone homer of current Marlins against Cashner. No one has faced him for more than four at-bats. Headley is currently on a 10-game hitting streak. He missed the first two weeks of this season due to a fractured thumb and has said he won't negotiate with the team during the season.
Marlins at Padres MLB Betting Odds and Trends
At WagerWeb, San Diego is -184 and Miami +162 with the total at 7. The Marlins are 12-18-2 “over/under” (7-8-1 on road) and 18-14 on the runline. The Padres are 15-15-1 O/U (9-5-1 at home) and 17-14 on the runline.
The Marlins are 1-7 in their past eight series openers. Miami is 1-10 in LeBlanc's past 11 starts as a dog and 0-4 in his past four road starts. San Diego is 11-5 in its past 16 as a home favorite. The Padres are 1-4 in their past five Monday games. The under is 5-0-2 in LeBlanc's past seven road starts. The over is 5-1 in San Diego's past six vs. a lefty starter. The Marlins have won five of the past six meetings. The over has hit in six of the past nine.
Marlins at Padres Picks and Betting Predictions
You won't see the Padres as such big favorites very often this year, and that's why I tend to lean toward Miami here just on value. Cashner is quite capable of walking about seven guys. It is a long trip from Philly to San Diego for a turnaround game, but Miami and the under is the pick.
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