Padres at Giants Picks and MLB Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 6/17/2013
When 5Dimes posted the San Diego Padres' “over/under” wins total of 74.5, I was pretty confident in the under. I mean, the club didn't have a stud pitcher, and no one in the lineup scared opposing pitchers outside of third baseman Chase Headley, and he might have been a one-season fluke in 2012 (starting to look that way). Yet there the Padres are very much in contention in the NL West. Not sure if that's so much a testimony to San Diego overachieving or that it's probably the worst division in the National League. The Padres figured to be sellers ahead of the July 31 trade deadline but perhaps not now.
San Francisco has definitely underachieved but is also right on the heels of the first-place Snakes despite a negative overall run differential entering Sunday. The Giants should definitely be buyers ahead of the trade deadline. Maybe they revisit getting Alfonso Soriano from the Cubs. San Francisco had a trade in place last season, but Soriano strangely invoked his no-trade clause. Maybe he prefers losing in Chicago to winning in San Francisco. Two of the Giants' best offensive players, third baseman Pablo Sandoval and second baseman Marco Scutaro, the World Series and NLCS MVPs from a year ago, respectively, are both hurt. Sandoval is on the disabled list. Scutaro isn't on the DL but hasn't played since June 11 supposedly because of something called “mallet finger" (can't say I've heard that one before). That’s an injury to the tendon that extends the finger. He's likely out again Monday although he hopes to play through the injury at some point.
Padres at Giants Betting Story Lines
Look for reigning NL MVP Buster Posey to sit this one out despite getting hot recently. Manager Bruce Bochy is trying to keep his catcher fresh and occasionally uses him at first base. However, Hector Sanchez is expected to be behind the plate in Monday's series opener, and Posey likely to sit it out against the Padres' right-handed starter as San Francisco returns home from a nine-game road trip.
The Padres start Edinson Volquez (5-5, 5.87), who has been a disappointment. Maybe a light came on last time out, however. He allowed just a run and struck out nine over seven innings in a win over Atlanta. Prior to that he was rocked for nine runs in 2.1 innings in Colorado. He started April 19 in San Francisco, allowing two runs and eight hits in six innings in a 3-2 loss. Volquez is 2-1 with a 5.00 ERA in 36 career innings against the Giants. Hunter Pence is the only Giant with a homer in his career of Volquez but is batting just .154.
Meanwhile, it's “iffy” if one of San Diego's best hitters, Carlos Quentin, plays. He missed a second straight game Sunday because of a sore left shoulder. Mark Kotsay, who has been in the majors since like the 1960s it seems like, started in his place. San Diego also remains without second baseman Jedd Gyorko, an NL Rookie of the Year candidate who is on the 15-day DL.
San Francisco starts Barry Zito (4-5, 5.79). The enigmatic southpaw was rocked for eight runs and 11 hits over 4.2 innings last time out in Pittsburgh. But he's good at home, 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA compared to a 11.28 road ERA. He did lose his last home start, however, ending a 13-game regular-season winning streak for San Francisco in his home starts. That had been the team's longest for any starter since 1982-83 when it won 18 in a row behind Atlee Hammaker. Zito faced the Padres in back-to-back starts in late April. In the home one he was great, blanking the "Fathers" over seven innings. In the road one, he was lit up for six runs in 3.2 innings. He's 5-9 with a 4.46 ERA career against San Diego. Headley is hitting .250 with a homer and six RBI off Zito. Outfielder Jesus Guzman should be in the lineup as he's 5-for-11 with a homer and five RBI in his career off Zito.
Padres at Giants MLB Betting Odds and Trends
At BetOnline, the Giants opened at -120 and the Padres at +110 with the total at eight. All trends entering Sunday: The Padres are 35-31-2 over/under (17-16 on road) and 39-29 on the runline. The Giants are 37-28-2 O/U (15-15-2 at home) and 26-41 on the runline.
San Diego is 4-1 in its past five series openers and in its past five against lefty starters. The Padres are 2-7 in Volquez's past nine road starts. They are 0-4 in his past four series openers. San Francisco is 4-1 in its past five home games against righty starters. The Giants are 8-2 in Zito's past 10 series opening starts. The over is 5-1 in San Diego's past six road games against lefty starters. The over is 6-1 in Volquez's past seven starts. The under is 5-1 in Zito's past six home starts. The under is 5-0 in Zito's past five home starts against San Diego. The Padres are 3-13 in the past 16 in San Francisco.
Padres at Giants Picks and Betting Predictions
This series is tied at 3-3, with each team sweeping a series at home. This seems like a huge trap game for San Francisco as it had to play the Sunday night ESPN game in Atlanta and then fly cross-country. San Diego played Sunday afternoon at home and had just the short flight. Plus, you add in the Giants' three best hitters are likely out, and this seems like extremely good value. Take San Diego and the under. However, if Posey and Scutaro play, jump on the Giants. I'd also recommend covering yourself regardless and taking San Francisco at +170 on the runline just in case Zito is that good at home again.
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