Reds at Brewers Picks and MLB Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 7/8/2013
How can I not preview a guy looking to make baseball history by throwing consecutive no-hitters? That would of course be Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, who takes the mound tonight in Milwaukee against the Brewers.
Actually, Bailey has thrown consecutive no-hitters already. He has tossed the last two in MLB, with the other coming late last season. The only pitcher to do it in back-to-back starts was another Red, Johnny Vander Meer in 1938. I am pretty sure that record is unbreakable, but you never know. Vander Meer did it June 11 against Boston (then known as Bees) and four days later against Brooklyn. The latter was the first night game at Ebbets Field and Vander Meer was anything but sharp with eight walks.
Here is a preview of today’s Reds-Brewers tilt:
Reds at Brewers Betting Story Lines
I am not saying that Homer Bailey is the worst pitcher ever with multiple no-hitters, but, well, he might be. He was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2004 draft and really hasn't quite lived up to expectations. His best season came last year, his first making more than 22 starts in the Majors, when he went 13-10 with a career-best 3.68 ERA.
Bailey is 43-39 overall with a 4.36 ERA in his career. He's not even at .500 this year at 5-6 although he does have a solid 3.57 ERA. There are 20 pitchers who have thrown multiple no-nos. Bailey and Bob Forsch are the only two never to have been an All-Star. Still, Bailey is probably better than Bill Stoneman, a one-time All-Star with the Expos who finished with a 54-85 career record and multiple no-hitters. Bailey is the first pitcher since Nolan Ryan in 1974-75 to throw the last no-hitter of one season and the first of a next. Crazily, according to ESPN, Bailey has now thrown more no-hitters than shutouts in which he allowed a hit (one).
To say Bailey has struggled in his career against Milwaukee is an understatement. The righty is 1-6 with a 6.00 ERA career against the Brew Crew. One of his worst starts of the season came Jun 15 against Milwaukee, allowing six runs and eight hits in seven innings of a 6-0 defeat. Ryan Braun has had some of the most success of any Brewer against Bailey, hitting .360 with a homer and six RBI in 25 at-bats, but he's on the DL with an inflamed nerve in his hand and won't be back before Thursday. Second baseman Rickie Weeks has been a huge disappointment this season for Milwaukee but he loves Bailey, hitting .458 with two homers and seven RBI in 24 at-bats.
The Brewers counter with Kyle Lohse (4-6, 3.43), who might be trade bait. He cost Milwaukee a first round draft pick, which clearly looks like a mistake now even with his solid ERA. Maybe the Brewers can land a few prospects for Lohse if they deal him.
Lohse has been very good of late, with six straight quality starts if you don't count a rain-shortened stint on June 30 in Pittsburgh. He held the Nats to just a run and four hits over eight innings last time out. Lohse hasn't personally lost a game since May 30. He got a no-decision June 14 in Cincinnati, allowing three runs (one earned) in six innings. Jay Bruce likes facing Lohse as Bruce is 8-for-26 with a homer and five RBI against him. Joey Votto is 6-for-19 but hasn't gone yard.
Reds at Brewers Betting Odds and Trends
At BetOnline, the Reds opened at -126 and the Brewers +116 with a total of 8.5 (under -120 favorite). All trends entering Sunday: Cincinnati is 43-42-2 over/under (21-20-1 on road) and 42-45 on the runline. The Brewers are 48-36-2 O/U (28-16 at home) and 34-52 on the runline.
Cincinnati is 10-1 in its past 11 Monday games. The Reds are 6-1 in Bailey's past seven starts with five days of rest. They are 1-4 in their past five series openers and 2-7 in Bailey's past nine road starts. Milwaukee is 2-5 in its past seven series openers and 1-4 in its past five Monday games. The Brewers are 1-6 in Lohse's past seven against the NL Central. The under is 7-1 in Bailey's past eight following a quality start. The over is 5-0 in Milwaukee's past five home games against righty starters. The under is 11-0 in Lohse's past 11 starts against teams with a winning record. The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Miller Park.
Reds at Brewers Betting Prediction
No Braun for the Brewers, plus third baseman Aramis Ramirez is iffy for Monday after sitting Sunday with a knee injury that has bothered him all year. I'm expecting him not to play. Plus the Reds are 5-1 against Milwaukee this year (all in Cincinnati). Wouldn't it be great to see Bailey throw another no-hitter? I can't say there's a prop on that, however. Take the Reds and the ‘under’.
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