Yankees at Rangers Picks and MLB Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 7/24/2013
Look for the trade market to really heat up now in advance of next Wednesday's non-waiver deadline after the Chicago Cubs traded their ace and presumably the best pitcher available, right-hander Matt Garza, to the Texas Rangers on Monday. The Cubs know they aren't likely to contend until at least 2015, and Theo Epstein did quite well in landing a batch of quality prospects for a guy who will be a free agent this offseason. For example, the Cubs certainly appear on the surface to have gotten more for Garza than the Milwaukee Brewers did last year for Zack Greinke to the Angels.
Garza was supposed to start Monday night in Arizona but was scratched beforehand. He will go Wednesday night in Game 3 of a four-game set in Arlington against the Yankees. Ironically, the Yankees also could have a big-name Cub on their roster by Wednesday. As of this writing, the Yankees reportedly were close to bringing Alfonso Soriano back to the Bronx. Their offense is struggling without Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira, the latter done for the year. Yankee production from left fielders and designated hitters has been among the worst in the league, and Soriano would play both.
Soriano is batting .259 with 17 homers and 51 RBI for the Cubs entering Tuesday and is red hot at the moment. I'm fairly certain the Yankees now don't expect A-Rod to play this season after what happened to Ryan Braun on Monday. Jeter could be back this weekend and Granderson the first week of August. Soriano has a no-trade clause as a 10-and-5 guy, but it's expected he would approve a deal to New York. The Yanks would essentially pay the rest of his salary this year, with the Cubs picking up next year's $18 million while getting a prospect in return for that.
Yankees at Rangers Betting Story Lines
The Texas pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries. Ace Yu Darvish just returned from the DL on Monday and was brilliant in shutting out New York. He took Justin Grimm's spot on the 25-man roster; Grimm was the only current big-leaguer included in that Cubs deal. Alexi Ogando came off the DL to start Tuesday. Garza will slide into the No. 2 role between Darvish and Derek Holland. Should the Rangers also get injured Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison back at some point, they could really have something. That would also allow Ogando to potentially be sent back to the bullpen. I fully expect Texas to now catch Oakland in the AL West unless the A's make their own move -- they were also in on Garza. And, of course, possible suspensions to the Rangers' Nelson Cruz and A's pitcher Bartolo Colon could come into play any day. Cruz almost assuredly would take his suspension immediately, so perhaps he could get back by the playoffs and not have it hovering over him when he's a free agent this offseason. Texas is +120 on Sportsbook.ag to win the West with Oakland at -175.
Garza (6-1, 3.17) is 5-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his past six starts. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of those six, the longest streak of his career. Batters are hitting just .125 with runners in scoring position in those starts. Texas entered Monday ranking just 20th in MLB in ERA, and only one team has finished that low in ERA the past 15 years and won a World Series: St. Louis seven years ago. Garza is 1-4 with a 4.48 ERA in 66.1 career innings against the Yankees. Robinson Cano loves Garza as the New York second sacker is batting .345 with two homers and six RBI in his career against Garza. Ichiro Suzuki is at .286 with a homer in 21 at-bats.
New York counters with veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (7-7, 4.47). He's starting to look like a 41-year-old. He is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in his past seven starts, and opponents are hitting .311 off him in that stretch. New York is 3-4 in those seven games. One of those losses was June 26 against Texas in which Pettitte allowed four runs and six hits in six innings. Adrian Beltre is hitting .313 in 16 at-bats off Pettitte. Cruz is just 1-for-16 in his career. David Murphy is at .308 with a homer.
Yankees at Rangers MLB Betting Odds and Trends
At BetOnline, the Rangers opened at -171 and the Yankees at +161 with a total of 9. All trends entering Tuesday: New York is 38-54-7 “over/under” (17-27-4 on road) and 50-49 on the runline. Texas is 36-58-5 O/U (16-32-2 at home) and 45-54 on the runline.
The Yankees are 2-5 in their past seven Game 3s of a series. New York is 1-9 in its past 10 road games against teams with a winning record. It is 1-8 in Pettitte's past nine starts against AL West teams. The Rangers are 1-5 in their past six against the AL East. The over is 4-1-1 in Pettitte's past six starts. The under is 11-3-1 in New York's past 15 against the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rangers' past four Game 3s. The under is 7-1-1 in Texas' past nine overall. The under is 12-4 in the Rangers' past 16 home games against a lefty starter. New York is 4-9 in the past 13 in Texas.
Yankees at Rangers Picks and Betting Predictions
Texas won two of three in New York in late June and took the series opener in Arlington on Monday. I think the Rangers will be pretty jacked up with Garza on the mound, but I wonder if Garza himself will be? Still, it's hard to see the Yankee lineup as currently constructed doing much against him. Take Texas, as well as on the runline (+115), and the under.
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