Virginia at Florida State Picks and NCAA Basketball Odds
by Dave Schwab - 3/7/2013
The Virginia Cavaliers will look to bounce back from a tough road loss their last time out when they make the trip to the Donald L. Tucker Center this Thursday night to face the Florida State Seminoles. This ACC matchup is set to tip off at 7 p.m. (ET), and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.
After stunning No.3 Duke 73-68 last Thursday as one-point home underdogs, the Cavaliers came out flat in a 53-52 loss to Boston College as four-point road favorites this past Saturday. Overall, they are 20-9 straight up (17-8-1 against the spread) and 10-6 SU in conference play.
Florida State has just two SU victories in its last seven games to fall to 15-14 SU on the year and 7-9 in conference play. It is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games and 10-16-1 ATS on the year. The total has gone “over” in five of its last six games.
Virginia at Florida State Betting Storylines
Virginia remains in pretty good shape to earn a spot in this year’s NCAA Tournament, but it cannot afford another bad loss in its final two regular season games heading into next week’s ACC Tournament. Right now the Cavaliers are tied with NC State for the fourth seed in the conference and could possibly move up further in the standings if they win out and get some help.
While Joe Harris continues to light up the scoreboard with an average of 17.8 points a game, Virginia will most likely rely on its shut-down defense to get the win in this matchup. It has held teams to an average of 54.4 points a game this season, including a 56-36 victory over the Seminoles earlier this season as a six-point home favorite. This number has climbed over the past few weeks, especially on the road, where it is giving up an average of 62.4 points a game. However, defense remains the primary strength of this team.
Florida State’s best chance to pull off the upset on Thursday night lies in the ability of Michael Snaer (14.4 points) and Okaro White (12.2) to elevate their games. They are the only two players scoring in double figures for a Seminoles team that is averaging 67 points a game. As a whole, the team is shooting 44 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from three-point range.
Defense has not been Florida State’s strong suit this season as it is giving up an average of 68.6 points a game. This number has gotten even worse during its current slide, and the Seminoles have now allowed 70 points or more in five of their last seven games. They have been downright horrible under the boards this season with an average of just 31.3 rebounds a game.
Virginia at Florida State NCAA Basketball Betting Odds and Trends
Virginia has been opened as a 3.5-point road favorite by BetOnline for this ACC matchup with the total line still off the board as of our deadline for this article.
The Cavaliers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road but a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss. The total has gone over in seven of their last nine conference games.
The Seminoles are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The total has gone over in four of their last five games at home.
The road team in this series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the total has stayed “under” in eight of the last nine games. Virginia is just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games against Florida State.
Virginia at Florida State Picks and Betting Predictions
Given the current form of both these teams, you have to heavily discount the past trends in this matchup. The Cavaliers fully understand the importance of winning this game, while Florida State appears to be just riding out the string over the past few weeks. Stick with Virginia to bounce back on the road to easily cover the 3.5-point spread.
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