Merrimack Warriors vs Tarleton State Texans Prediction, 11/11/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Merrimack Warriors vs Tarleton State Texans

Date: Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Location: Wisdom Gym in Stephenville, TX

TV: ESPN+

Wisdom Gym is the location where the Tarleton State Texans (1-2) will try to beat the Merrimack Warriors (0-2) on Tuesday.

The Merrimack Warriors faced Auburn and took a loss by a final of 95-57 in their last contest. Merrimack ended with a 28.6% field goal percentage (16 out of 56) and converted 8 of their 32 three-point shots. At the free throw line, the Warriors converted 17 of 24 shots for a rate of 70.8%. When talking about pulling down boards, they compiled 22 with 8 of them being of the offensive sort. They also dished out 7 dimes for this contest while forcing 8 turnovers and having 7 steals. With respect to the defense, Merrimack allowed the other team to go 50.0% from the floor on 31 out of 62 shooting. Auburn distributed 14 dimes and had 7 steals for the contest. Additionally, Auburn had 50 boards (19 offensive, 31 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. Auburn ended up shooting 73.0% at the free throw line by knocking down 27 of 37 attempts. They knocked down 6 out of their 24 tries from distance. When talking about personal fouls, the Warriors finished with 27 and Auburn totaled 20 personal fouls.

Ernest Shelton is a player who was a contributor for the contest. He shot 50.0% from the floor but finished the game without an assist. He saw the court for 36 minutes played and also collected 4 boards. He walked away with 23 points on 6 out of 12 shooting.

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Merrimack steps onto the court with a mark of 0-2 for the season. They have an average of 61.5 points per contest (342nd in college) while connecting on 30.4% from the field. The Warriors are shooting 26.2% on shots from distance (16 of 61) and 76.5% from the charity stripe. As a team, Merrimack is pulling in 27.5 rebounds per game and has tallied 16 assists for the campaign, which ranks 338th in the nation in terms of passing the rock. They are losing possession via turnover 11.0 times per contest and as a group they are committing 24.0 personal fouls per game.

On defense, the Warriors are forcing their opponents into 11.0 turnovers per game while drawing 19.0 fouls. They are giving up 31.0% on shots from beyond the arc while they are 312th in college in opponents PPG (85.0). The Warriors defensively are giving up an opponent FG percentage of 46.2% (55 of 119) and they concede 49.5 rebounds per game as a team. They are ranked 245th in the country in giving up assists to their opponents with 31 conceded this season.

In their last game, the Tarleton State Texans walked away with a victory by a final of 85-77 when they played Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The Texans snagged 25 defensive boards and 8 offensive boards for a total of 33 in this contest. They also coughed it up 13 times, while recording 5 steals in this game. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi was called for 27 personal fouls in this contest which got the Texans to the free throw line for a total of 37 tries. They were able to convert 29 of those for a percentage of 78.4%. With regard to shooting from beyond the arc, Tarleton State made 8 out of 15 attempts (53.3%). When this game wrapped up, the Texans ended up going 24 out of 47 from the floor which had them at 51.1%. The Texans permitted Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to make 25 of their 58 tries from the floor which gave them a rate of 43.1% in this matchup. They wrapped up this game 42.9% from distance by shooting 9 out of 21 and finished the contest at 18 out of 29 from the charity stripe (62.1%). Regarding how they rebounded, Tarleton State permitted Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to collect 25 overall (11 on the offensive glass).

Dior Johnson ended up being a factor for the Texans in the matchup. He scored 32 points in his 33 mins on the court and had 2 assists for the contest. He knocked down 9 out of 16 in the matchup for a field goal rate of 56.3%, and accounted for 6 rebounds.

Tarleton State has a record of 1-2 on the campaign. As an offensive team, the Texans are shooting 40.0% from the floor, which is 303rd in college. Tarleton State has accounted for 221 points this season (73.7 per contest) and they average 28.0 boards per game. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 10.3 times per game (334th in the country) and they are turning it over 12.3 times per contest. The Texans have committed 25.3 personal fouls every game while shooting 78.9% from the charity stripe.

The Texans on defense are ranked 329th in D-1 in points per game surrendered with 89.7. They are able to force 13.3 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 55.8% from the floor (357th in the nation). The Tarleton State defense concedes 42.1% on shots from distance (24 of 57) and their opponents are knocking down 73.0% of their free throw shots. They have allowed 16.3 dimes and 34.0 rebounds every game, ranking them 292nd and 164th in those defensive categories.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Merrimack

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