Tarleton State Texans vs Baylor Bears Prediction, 11/14/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tarleton State Texans vs Baylor Bears

Date: Friday, November 14, 2025

Location: Foster Pavilion in Waco, TX

TV: ESPN+

The Baylor Bears (2-0) welcome the Tarleton State Texans (2-2) at Foster Pavilion on Friday.

The Tarleton State Texans played Merrimack and took home the win by a score of 76-62 in their last contest. Tarleton State wrapped up the game having earned a 49.1% field goal percentage (28 of 57) and converted 2 out of their 11 shots from beyond the perimeter. At the charity stripe, the Texans made 18 of their 25 tries for a percentage of 72.0%. Regarding grabbing rebounds, they compiled 34 with 11 of them being offensive. They also doled out 12 assists for the contest as well as creating 20 turnovers and earning 10 steals. When it comes to the defense, Tarleton State allowed the other team to shoot 32.8% from the floor on 19 of 58 shooting. Merrimack totaled 7 dimes and had 5 steals for this contest. Moreover, Merrimack snagged 26 boards (13 offensive, 13 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. Merrimack finished the game at 79.2% at the charity stripe by making 19 of their 24 attempts. They buried 5 of their 28 attempts from distance. In the matter of personal fouls, the Texans left the arena with 19 and Merrimack finished the game with 21 personal fouls.

Chris Mpaka is a guy who was a contributor in this game. He ended up walking away with 24 points on 10 out of 12 shooting. He played for 30 mins played and pulled down 9 rebounds. He ended up shooting 83.3% from the field but had no dimes when the game ended.

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Tarleton State comes into this game with a win-loss record of 2-2 on the season. They are turning it over 13.5 times per contest and as a team are committing 23.8 fouls per contest. As a team, Tarleton State is pulling in 30.8 boards per contest and has accumulated 43 assists on the season, which ranks 207th in college in terms of passing the rock. The Texans are shooting 36.4% on shots from distance (24 of 66) and 77.4% from the free throw line. They are averaging 74.3 points per contest (258th in the country) while shooting 42.4% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Texans are forcing 15.3 turnovers every game and they draw 22.5 personal fouls. They currently rank 337th in Division 1 in giving up assists to their opponents with 56 relinquished so far this year. The Texans are giving up a FG percentage of 49.5% (105 of 212) and they relinquish 34.0 boards per contest as a team. They relinquish 34.1% on 3-point shots while they are 301st in college in PPG allowed (82.8).

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Baylor Bears got the victory with a final of 78-69 when they played Washington. The Bears were able to collect 25 defensive boards and 6 offensive rebounds for a total of 31 in this matchup. They also coughed up the ball 9 times, while recording 7 steals for this game. Washington earned 22 fouls for the matchup which took the Bears to the charity stripe for 29 attempts. They were able to bury 20 of those for a percentage of 69.0%. Regarding shots from beyond the perimeter, Baylor knocked down 6 of 21 attempts (28.6%). When all was said and done, the Bears ended up shooting 26 for 56 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 46.4%. The Bears allowed Washington to knock down 28 out of their 68 tries from the field which had them shooting 41.2% for the game. They went 15.0% from behind the 3-point line by going 3 out of 20 and ended up shooting 10 of 15 from the charity stripe (66.7%). In regard to rebounding, Baylor permitted Washington to snag 38 in total (15 on the offensive side).

Cameron Carr pitched in for the Bears for this contest. He earned 16 points in his 24 mins on the hardwood and accumulated 1 assist for the contest. He converted 4 of 7 for the matchup for a field goal rate of 57.1%, and earned 6 rebounds.

Baylor has a win-loss mark of 2-0 for the campaign. The Bears are committing 14.5 fouls per contest and they connect on 67.2% from the free throw line. They are assisting teammates 15.0 times per contest (197th in college hoops) and they are giving up possession 10.0 times per game. Baylor has scored 174 points on the season (87.0 per contest) and they average 37.5 rebounds per contest. As an offense, the Bears are shooting 47.9% from the floor, which is ranked 122nd in the nation.

The Baylor defense surrenders 29.8% on shots from distance (14 of 47) and their opponents are knocking down 76.9% of their foul shots. They surrender 11.5 assists and 34.0 total rebounds per game, which is ranked 113th and 156th in those defensive categories. The Bears on the defensive side of the court are 223rd in college in points given up per game with 75.0. They are able to force 12.0 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 45.0% from the field (258th in college hoops).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Tarleton State

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