UMBC Retrievers vs Morgan State Bears Prediction, 11/11/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: UMBC Retrievers vs Morgan State Bears

Date: Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Location: Hill Field House in Baltimore, MD

TV: ESPN+

The UMBC Retrievers (1-1) are traveling to Hill Field House on Tuesday where they will attempt to defeat the Morgan State Bears (1-1).

The UMBC Retrievers stepped onto the hardwood against Dayton and ended up losing by a score of 77-71 in their last contest. UMBC ended having earned a 44.8% field goal percentage (26 out of 58) and knocked down 11 of their 26 shots from beyond the arc. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Retrievers converted 8 of their 10 attempts for a percentage of 80.0%. In regard to rebounding, they compiled 27 with 9 of them being offensive. They also dished out 13 assists for the contest in addition to forcing the opposition into 9 turnovers and getting 5 steals. When talking about defense, UMBC allowed 51.0% from the floor on 26 of 51 shooting. Dayton doled out 15 dimes and had 10 steals in the game. On top of that, Dayton pulled down 26 rebounds (5 offensive, 21 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. Dayton finished the contest at 79.2% at the free throw line by knocking down 19 of 24 attempts. They also knocked down 6 out of their 19 attempts from beyond the arc. When it comes to fouls, the Retrievers ended up finishing with 17 while Dayton totaled 11 fouls.

Jose Roberto Tanchyn is one guy who was a factor in this matchup. He notched 16 points on 6 of 7 shooting. He played for 23 mins and also totaled 6 rebounds. He ended up going 85.7% from the field and recorded 1 assist.

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UMBC comes into this matchup with a win-loss mark of 1-1 this season. They have an average of 72.5 points per contest (276th in Division 1) while shooting 43.8% from the field. The Retrievers are hitting 40.7% on shots from 3-point land (22 of 54) and 73.9% from the charity stripe. As a team, UMBC is collecting 36.0 rebounds per game and has earned 27 dimes for the campaign, which is 256th in college hoops in terms of passing the ball. They lose possession via turnover 13.0 times per contest and as a team they commit 16.5 personal fouls every game.

When they are on defense, the Retrievers are forcing 11.0 turnovers every game while drawing 11.5 fouls. They rank 93rd in D-1 in giving up assists to their opponents with 20 relinquished on the year. The Retrievers defense is giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 42.3% (47 of 111) and they surrender 32.0 boards per contest as a squad. They are giving up 21.9% from 3-point land and they are 106th in the country in points per game allowed (65.0).

The last time they took the hardwood, the Morgan State Bears walked away with a victory by a final of 101-77 when they faced Central Penn. The Bears were able to snag 22 defensive boards and 10 offensive boards for a total of 32 for this contest. They gave up possession of the ball 17 times, while recording 14 steals for the game. Central Penn committed 23 fouls in the game which took the Bears to the free throw line for a total of 34 attempts. They were able to knock down 25 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 73.5%. When discussing 3-point shots, Morgan State knocked down 6 out of 21 tries (28.6%). When all was said and done, the Bears shot 35 out of 63 from the floor which had them sitting at 55.6%. The Bears allowed Central Penn to knock down 29 of 57 tries from the floor which gave them a percentage of 50.9% for this contest. They went 45.0% from three-point range by hitting 9 out of 20 and ended up going 10 out of 20 from the free throw line (50.0%). With respect to how they rebounded, Morgan State permitted Central Penn to snag 19 overall (6 on the offensive side).

Rob Lawson pitched in for the Bears in the matchup. He totaled 20 points in his 32 mins on the hardwood and earned 5 dimes in this matchup. He knocked down 6 out of 11 in this game for a field goal rate of 54.5%, and had 2 rebounds.

Morgan State has a mark of 1-1 for the year. When it comes to offensive execution, the Bears are shooting 47.9% from the field, which ranks 137th in the nation. Morgan State has scored 171 pts this year (85.5 per game) and they collect 37.5 rebounds per contest. They are assisting teammates 13.5 times per game (237th in the nation) and they are turning it over 16.5 times per contest. The Bears commit 22.0 personal fouls every game and they connect on 72.4% from the charity stripe.

The Morgan State defense surrenders 28.3% on three-point shots (13 of 46) and their opponents are knocking down 62.7% of their foul shots. They have relinquished 15.0 assists and 33.0 rebounds on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 266th and 137th in those categories on the defensive end. The Bears on the defensive end are ranked 286th in college hoops in PPG surrendered with 82.0. They are able to force 14.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 46.7% from the floor (288th in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take UMBC

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