UMBC Retrievers vs South Florida Bulls Prediction, 12/21/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: UMBC Retrievers vs USF Bulls

Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025

Location: Yuengling Center in Tampa, FL

TV: ESPN+

The USF Bulls (6-5) will go up against the UMBC Retrievers (6-5) at Yuengling Center on Sunday.

The UMBC Retrievers took the court against Army and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 63-60 in their last contest. UMBC ended with a 39.7% field goal percentage (23 of 58) and converted 8 out of their 28 shots from beyond the arc. At the free throw line, the Retrievers buried 6 of 16 tries for a rate of 37.5%. In the matter of getting rebounds, they collected a total of 35 with 6 of them being offensive. They also recorded 12 assists in the game in addition to forcing the opposition into 9 turnovers and getting 5 steals. In the matter of defense, UMBC allowed the other team to shoot 35.1% from the field on 20 of 57 shooting. Army recorded 8 assists and had 4 steals in the matchup. On top of that, Army snagged 39 rebounds (7 offensive, 32 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. Army ended up going 80.0% from the charity stripe by converting 16 of their 20 attempts. They also made 7 out of their 22 shots from distance. When it comes to fouls, the Retrievers ended up with 15 and Army recorded 18 fouls.

DJ Armstrong is one guy who was important in this contest. He accumulated 14 points on 5 of 15 shooting. He saw the court for 35 minutes played and also grabbed 2 rebounds. He finished shooting 33.3% from the field and recorded 1 assist.

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UMBC heads into this contest with a win-loss record of 6-5 on the season. They cough up possession 12.6 times per contest and as a group they commit 13.3 fouls every game. As a team, UMBC is pulling down 36.0 rebounds per game and has accounted for 153 assists so far this year, which ranks 260th in college in terms of passing the ball. The Retrievers are connecting on 34.4% from downtown (94 of 273) and 69.5% from the charity stripe. They average 74.1 points per contest (263rd in Division 1) while connecting on 46.7% from the floor.

On the defensive end of the court, the Retrievers are forcing their opponents into 10.2 turnovers every game and they draw 14.6 fouls. They are conceding 32.1% from beyond the arc and they are ranked 120th in the country in points per game allowed (70.8). The Retrievers defensively are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 43.4% (296 of 682) and they concede 34.1 rebounds per game as a team. They currently rank 41st in college hoops in giving up assists with 120 conceded on the year.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the USF Bulls went home defeated by a final of 104-93 when they faced Alabama. The Bulls corralled 21 defensive rebounds and 21 offensive boards for a total of 42 in this contest. They turned the ball over 15 times, while getting 8 steals in this matchup. Alabama earned 27 fouls for the matchup which got the Bulls to the free throw line for a total of 34 tries. They were able to bury 27 of them for a rate of 79.4%. Pertaining to three-point shots, South Florida buried 10 of 30 attempts (33.3%). When the final whistle blew, the Bulls shot 28 for 72 from the field which had them shooting 38.9%. The Bulls allowed Alabama to make 31 of 69 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 44.9% in this matchup. They went 39.4% from downtown by shooting 13 of 33 and ended up shooting 29 of 35 at the free throw line (82.9%). Concerning team rebounding, South Florida permitted Alabama to grab 42 overall (17 on the offensive glass).

Izaiyah Nelson pitched in for the Bulls in this matchup. He made 9 out of 12 in this contest giving him a field goal percentage of 75.0%, and accumulated 12 rebounds. He accumulated 25 points in his 32 minutes of playing time, but wasn't able to get an assist.

South Florida has a mark of 6-5 on the year. The Bulls are committing 22.6 fouls per game while shooting 74.8% from the charity stripe. They are dishing out assists 16.2 times per game (97th in the country) and they lose possession via turnover 12.1 times per game. South Florida has earned 979 points this year (89.0 per game) and they pull down 41.8 boards per game. As an offensive unit, the Bulls are shooting 43.2% from the floor, which ranks 284th in the nation.

The Bulls defensively are ranked 330th in D-1 in points per game surrendered with 81.8. They are forcing their opponents into 16.2 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 43.8% from the field (208th in Division 1). The South Florida defense concedes 36.1% on shots from distance (97 of 269) and their opponents are connecting on 70.8% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have relinquished 14.0 assists and 38.7 total boards per game, which ranks them 229th and 336th in college hoops.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take UMBC

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