Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans Prediction, 1/17/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans

Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026

Location: Trojan Arena in Troy, AL

TV: ESPN+

The Arkansas State Red Wolves (12-5) are on their way to Trojan Arena on Saturday where they will take on the Troy Trojans (12-6).

The Arkansas State Red Wolves played Texas State and walked away with a win by a score of 83-82 in their last game. Arkansas State finished the game with a 40.6% field goal percentage (26 out of 64) and buried 6 out of their 24 shots from 3-point land. At the charity stripe, the Red Wolves made 25 of 32 tries for a percentage of 78.1%. In terms of grabbing rebounds, they compiled a total of 43 with 19 of them being of the offensive sort. They also doled out 16 dimes in the matchup while forcing 16 turnovers and getting 11 steals. In reference to defense, Arkansas State let their opponent shoot 52.5% from the floor on 32 of 61 shooting. Texas State recorded 11 assists and had 11 steals in this matchup. On top of that, Texas State pulled down 31 rebounds (8 offensive, 23 defensive), but didn't have a block. Texas State finished 84.2% at the charity stripe by making 16 of 19 shots. They also knocked down 2 of 11 attempts from downtown. In regard to fouls, the Red Wolves finished with 21 while Texas State had 24 fouls.

Chandler Jackson is one player who was a factor in this game. He finished shooting 37.5% from the field and dished out 4 assists. He saw the court for 26 minutes and also pulled down 2 boards. He accounted for 16 points on 3 out of 8 shooting.

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Arkansas State heads into this one with a record of 12-5 so far this season. They turn it over 14.2 times per game and as a group are committing 19.2 fouls every game. As a team, Arkansas State is snagging 39.6 boards per game and has accumulated 252 assists for the season, which is 174th in Division 1 in terms of passing the rock. The Red Wolves are connecting on 31.9% on 3-pointers (146 of 457) and 77.3% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 83.3 pts per game (71st in college) while hitting 45.1% from the field.

When they are on the defensive end, the Red Wolves are forcing 12.7 turnovers every game and they draw 19.4 fouls. They are relinquishing 32.7% on 3-point attempts while they are 297th in the country in PPG from their opponents (78.0). The Red Wolves defensively are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 45.8% (470 of 1,026) and they concede 33.4 rebounds per contest as a unit. They rank 155th in college in allowing assists with 224 conceded for the campaign.

When they last stepped on the court, the Troy Trojans walked away with a victory by a final of 91-65 when they faced Southern Miss. Concerning how they attacked the glass, Troy permitted Southern Miss to pull down 31 in all (12 offensive). They went 15.0% from three-point range by going 3 out of 20 and finished the contest at 12 of 18 at the free throw line (66.7%). The Trojans permitted Southern Miss to make 25 of 57 attempts from the floor which gave them a rate of 43.9% in this game. When the game finished, the Trojans walked away from this one shooting 34 out of 65 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 52.3%. In the matter of shots from beyond the perimeter, Troy converted 11 of their 25 tries (44.0%). They were able to knock down 12 of those for a rate of 70.6%. Southern Miss earned 12 personal fouls for the contest which got the Trojans to the free throw line for a total of 17 attempts. They turned it over 8 times, while getting 14 steals for the game. The Trojans were able to snag 22 defensive boards and 12 offensive rebounds totaling 34 in this matchup.

Thomas Dowd ended up being a major contributor for the Trojans for the game. He had 15 points in his 34 minutes on the hardwood and had 5 dimes in this contest. He buried 6 of 12 for the game giving him a field goal percentage of 50.0%, and totaled 8 rebounds.

Troy has a mark of 12-6 on the year. When it comes to offense, the Trojans are shooting 46.0% from the floor, which ranks them 149th in the nation. Troy has scored 1,552 points this season (86.2 per contest) and they pull down 39.4 rebounds per contest. They are dishing out assists 16.9 times per game (59th in the country) and they cough up possession 12.7 times per contest. The Trojans have committed 17.6 personal fouls per game and they connect on 71.1% from the charity stripe.

The Troy defense allows 33.6% on 3-point shots (141 of 420) and opponents are making 68.3% of their foul shots. They allow 13.8 assists and 36.6 boards on a nightly basis, which ranks them 219th and 284th in those categories. The Trojans defensively are ranked 255th in college hoops in PPG allowed with 76.3. They are forcing their opponents into 15.1 turnovers on a nightly basis and allow teams to shoot 43.2% from the floor (157th in the nation).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Arkansas State

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