Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, 1/3/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs

Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026

Location: Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA

TV: ESPN+

The Boise State Broncos (9-4) are hitting the road to Viejas Arena on Saturday where they will attempt to defeat the San Diego State Aztecs (8-4).

The Boise State Broncos faced off with New Mexico and took home the win by a score of 62-53 in their last game. Boise State ended having earned a 35.7% field goal percentage (20 out of 56) and made 6 of their 30 three-point shots. From the free throw line, the Broncos knocked down 16 of their 25 attempts for a rate of 64.0%. Regarding getting rebounds, they earned 44 with 8 of them being of the offensive sort. They also distributed 7 assists for the game as well as forcing 7 turnovers and having 5 steals. In reference to defending, Boise State allowed the other team to go 30.8% from the field on 20 of 65 shooting. New Mexico recorded 4 assists and had 5 steals in the game. On top of that, New Mexico totaled 36 rebounds (9 offensive, 27 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. New Mexico walked away from this one shooting 62.5% at the free throw line by burying 10 of 16 tries. They converted 3 of 25 attempts from beyond the perimeter. When talking about personal fouls, the Broncos ended up finishing with 18 and New Mexico finished the game with 23 personal fouls.

Spencer Ahrens is a guy who was important in this contest. He accounted for 12 points on 5 of 7 shooting. He played 21 mins and pulled down 8 rebounds. He finished shooting 71.4% from the field and also distributed 1 assist.

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Boise State comes into this contest with a win-loss mark of 9-4 on the year. They currently have an average of 75.8 pts per contest (221st in the nation) while hitting 43.9% from the field. The Broncos are shooting 33.7% on 3-pointers (103 of 306) and 74.4% from the free throw line. As a unit, Boise State is grabbing 38.2 rebounds per game and has earned 174 dimes for the year, which is 286th in the nation in terms of passing the ball. They turn the ball over 12.0 times per contest and as a team they are committing 17.2 fouls every game.

Defensively, the Broncos are forcing their opponents into 10.4 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 20.8 fouls. They are ranked 38th in the nation in giving up assists with 145 relinquished on the campaign. The Broncos defensively are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 43.1% (320 of 743) and they concede 29.8 boards per game as a unit. They are giving up 30.7% on shots from downtown and they are ranked 89th in college hoops in points per game allowed (69.1).

The last time they took the court, the San Diego State Aztecs walked away with a victory by a final of 81-68 when they played San Jose State. In the matter of rebounds, San Diego State allowed San Jose State to pull down 28 in total (11 on the offensive side). They finished 23.1% from beyond the perimeter by connecting on 6 of 26 and ended up shooting 22 out of 24 from the free throw line (91.7%). The Aztecs allowed San Jose State to convert 20 out of their 58 tries from the floor which gave them a percentage of 34.5% in the game. At the conclusion of this game, the Aztecs finished the game shooting 28 for 53 from the field which had them shooting 52.8%. When talking about shooting from beyond the arc, San Diego State converted 6 out of 11 attempts (54.5%). They were able to knock down 19 of them for a rate of 73.1%. San Jose State was called for 21 fouls in the matchup which got the Aztecs to the free throw line for a total of 26 attempts. They also gave up possession of the ball 16 times, while recording 8 steals for the contest. The Aztecs snagged 23 defensive rebounds and 11 offensive boards for a total of 34 for this game.

BJ Davis was important for the Aztecs in this matchup. He had 18 points in his 21 minutes on the court and accounted for 2 dimes in the matchup. He buried 7 of 10 in the matchup for a field goal percentage of 70.0%, and had 3 rebounds.

San Diego State has a mark of 8-4 on the campaign. The Aztecs are responsible for committing 18.9 fouls per game and they go 75.1% from the free throw line. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 16.7 times per contest (81st in college) and they lose possession via turnover 13.3 times per game. San Diego State has accumulated 983 points on the season (81.9 per game) and they pull in 36.7 rebounds per contest. As an offense, the Aztecs are connecting on 48.0% from the field, which has them ranked 76th in the country.

The San Diego State defense concedes 33.0% on shots from 3-point land (109 of 330) and their opponents are converting on 72.9% of their shots from the charity stripe. They concede 13.3 assists and 33.5 rebounds per game, which ranks 180th and 128th in college hoops. The Aztecs are ranked 159th in the nation in PPG given up with 72.1. They are able to force 15.3 TO's every game and allow teams to shoot 40.7% from the field (70th in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Boise State

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