Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC San Diego Tritons Prediction, 3/11/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC San Diego Tritons

Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Location: Lee's Family Forum in Henderson, NV

TV: ESPN+

The UC San Diego Tritons (22-10) will play the Cal Poly Mustangs (14-18) at Lee's Family Forum on Wednesday in the Big West Tournament.

The Cal Poly Mustangs played CSU Bakersfield and took home the win by a score of 108-76 in their last game. Regarding personal fouls, the Mustangs left the arena with 17 and CSU Bakersfield accounted for 18 personal fouls. They also converted 7 of 23 shots from downtown. CSU Bakersfield finished the game shooting 65.0% when shooting free throws by making 13 of their 20 attempts. On top of that, CSU Bakersfield collected 36 rebounds (12 offensive, 24 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. CSU Bakersfield earned 11 dimes and had 5 steals for this contest. In regard to the defense, Cal Poly allowed their opponent to shoot 41.8% from the floor on 28 of 67 shooting. They also doled out 21 assists in this contest in addition to forcing 18 turnovers and having 11 steals. With respect to pulling down boards, they earned 41 with 14 of them being offensive. At the free throw line, the Mustangs buried 19 of their 24 shots for a percentage of 79.2%. Cal Poly finished the game having earned a 48.1% FG percentage (38 of 79) and made 13 out of their 36 shots from downtown.

Hamad Mousa is one guy who was a major contributor for this contest. He finished shooting 60.0% from the floor and earned 3 dimes. He was on the hardwood for 25 mins played and also pulled down 6 rebounds. He scored 23 points on 9 of 15 shooting.

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Cal Poly will enter this matchup with a record of 14-18 on the campaign. They average 82.5 points per game (51st in the nation) while shooting 43.4% from the floor. The Mustangs are hitting 33.6% on shots from downtown (352 of 1048) and 78.6% from the charity stripe. As a team, Cal Poly is pulling in 38.2 rebounds per game and has racked up 436 dimes this year, which ranks 186th in D-1 in terms of passing the rock. They are giving up possession 15.3 times per contest and as a team they commit 19.3 fouls per game.

On defense, the Mustangs have forced 12.5 turnovers per game while drawing 19.8 fouls. They are 334th in college in giving up assists to the opposition with 505 conceded on the year. The Mustangs defensively are giving up a field goal percentage of 46.0% (966 of 2,099) and they surrender 37.7 rebounds per game as a group. They relinquish 34.6% on 3-point attempts and they are 361st in college in points per game allowed (85.4).

For their last game, the UC San Diego Tritons got the victory with a final of 64-63 when they faced UC Santa Barbara. The Tritons were able to collect 19 defensive boards and 6 offensive boards totaling 25 for this game. They also gave up possession 7 times, while getting 16 steals for the matchup. UC Santa Barbara committed 18 fouls in this game which got the Tritons to the charity stripe for a total of 18 attempts. They were able to bury 12 of the free throws for a percentage of 66.7%. With respect to shooting from distance, UC San Diego knocked down 2 out of 15 tries (13.3%). Overall, the Tritons finished shooting 25 out of 54 from the field which gave them a percentage of 46.3%. The Tritons permitted UC Santa Barbara to make 22 out of 48 attempts from the floor which left them with a rate of 45.8% for this game. They finished 37.0% from beyond the arc by hitting 10 out of 27 and walked away from this one shooting 9 of 9 from the free throw line (100.0%). In regard to cleaning the glass, UC San Diego permitted UC Santa Barbara to snag 34 in all (7 on the offensive side).

Bol Dengdit ended up being a factor for the Tritons in the matchup. He made 5 of 12 for this game for a rate of 41.7%, and had 4 rebounds. He recorded 15 points in his 27 minutes on the hardwood, but finished this game without an assist.

UC San Diego has a win-loss mark of 22-10 on the campaign. The Tritons are responsible for committing 16.1 fouls per game and they hit 69.0% from the charity stripe. They are assisting teammates 15.0 times per game (113th in college hoops) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 11.3 times per contest. UC San Diego has accumulated 2,431 points for the campaign (76.0 per game) and they grab 37.0 boards per game. As an offensive unit, the Tritons are hitting on 46.0% from the floor, which ranks 136th in the country.

The Tritons on the defensive side of the court are 70th in the country in PPG given up with 70.0. They are forcing their opponents into 12.0 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 41.6% from the field (50th in college hoops). The UC San Diego defense surrenders 32.6% on 3-point shots (269 of 824) and their opponents are connecting on 71.4% of their free throw attempts. They have given up 13.8 dimes and 35.5 boards per game, which ranks them 215th and 251st in the nation.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cal Poly

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