Cal State Northridge Matadors vs Cal Poly Mustangs Prediction, 2/5/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cal State Northridge Matadors vs Cal Poly Mustangs

Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026

Location: Mott Athletics Center in San Luis Obispo, CA

TV: ESPN+

The Cal State Northridge Matadors (13-10) are on their way to Mott Athletics Center on Thursday where they will try to beat the Cal Poly Mustangs (9-14).

The Cal State Northridge Matadors faced UC-San Diego and walked away with a win by a score of 81-64 in their last game. Cal State Northridge ended the contest with a 45.2% FG percentage (28 of 62) and buried 7 out of their 21 3-point shots. From the free throw line, the Matadors made 18 of their 23 shots for a percentage of 78.3%. In regard to grabbing boards, they collected 39 with 8 of them being of the offensive sort. They also distributed 21 dimes for the contest in addition to forcing the other team into 10 turnovers and getting 3 steals. With respect to defending, Cal State Northridge allowed 34.3% from the field on 24 out of 70 shooting. UC-San Diego recorded 16 assists and had 12 steals in this game. Moreover, UC-San Diego snagged 30 rebounds (13 offensive, 17 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. UC-San Diego finished the game shooting 44.4% from the charity stripe by making 8 of 18 shots. They knocked down 8 of 28 shots from three-point range. When talking about fouls, the Matadors walked away with 18 and UC-San Diego totaled 21 fouls.

Mahmoud Fofana is one player who was a major contributor for the game. He shot 72.7% from the floor and also earned 1 assist. He played 29 mins and also snagged 10 rebounds. He accounted for 22 points on 8 out of 11 shooting.

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Cal State Northridge steps onto the hardwood with a mark of 13-10 on the campaign. They average 81.0 points per outing (89th in Division 1) while going 44.8% from the floor. The Matadors are shooting 32.2% on shots from distance (168 of 522) and 66.2% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Cal State Northridge is snagging 42.1 rebounds per game and has totaled 393 assists for the campaign, which ranks 29th in D-1 in terms of passing the ball. They turn it over 13.6 times per contest and as a team they are committing 18.7 fouls on a nightly basis.

On defense, the Matadors are forcing their opponents into 12.4 turnovers per game while drawing 18.9 fouls. They rank 320th in college in allowing assists with 348 conceded on the year. The Matadors are giving up a shooting percentage of 42.3% (603 of 1,427) and they surrender 35.5 rebounds per game as a team. They are surrendering 33.9% on 3-pointers and they are 313th in college hoops in points per game allowed (79.3).

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Cal Poly Mustangs got the win with a final of 94-87 when they played UC Riverside. When it comes to rebounding, Cal Poly permitted UC Riverside to get 37 overall (19 on the offensive side). They finished the game shooting 40.0% from distance by shooting 8 out of 20 and finished the game at 17 of 26 from the free throw line (65.4%). The Mustangs permitted UC Riverside to make 31 of their 66 tries from the floor which left them with a rate of 47.0% for this game. When the final whistle blew, the Mustangs finished 34 for 64 from the field which had them sitting at 53.1%. In the matter of 3-point attempts, Cal Poly buried 9 of their 26 tries (34.6%). They were able to bury 17 of the free throws for a clip of 81.0%. UC Riverside had 20 personal fouls for the matchup which got the Mustangs to the free throw line for a total of 21 attempts. They turned it over 12 times, while earning 9 steals in this contest. The Mustangs were able to snag 16 defensive boards and 11 offensive boards totaling 27 in this contest.

Hamad Mousa was important for the Mustangs for the matchup. He knocked down 10 of 20 for this game giving him a rate of 50.0%, and totaled 6 rebounds. He scored 26 points in his 34 minutes of playing time and accumulated 4 assists in this game.

Cal Poly has a mark of 9-14 so far this year. When it comes to executing on offense, the Mustangs are connecting on 43.3% from the floor, which has them ranked 284th in the nation. Cal Poly has scored 1,874 points so far this season (81.5 per contest) and they collect 37.5 boards per game. They are earning an assist 13.2 times per game (252nd in the country) and they are losing possession via turnover 16.0 times per contest. The Mustangs have committed 19.9 fouls per game while shooting 76.5% from the charity stripe.

The Mustangs are ranked 361st in college in points given up per game with 86.4. They have forced 12.7 TO's every game and allow teams to shoot 46.6% from the floor (315th in D-1). The Cal Poly defense concedes 34.9% on three-point shots (224 of 641) and their opposition makes 72.4% of their free throw shots. They have relinquished 16.2 dimes and 37.3 boards every game, which ranks 332nd and 325th in the country.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Cal Poly

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