Florida Gators vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, 3/7/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Florida Gators vs Kentucky Wildcats

Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026

Location: Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY

TV: ESPN

The Florida Gators (24-6) are headed to Rupp Arena on Saturday where they will attempt to beat the Kentucky Wildcats (19-11).

The Florida Gators faced Mississippi State and went home with a win by a final score of 108-74 in their last contest. In relation to fouls, the Gators finished with 16 while Mississippi State totaled 15 fouls. They also converted 9 out of their 26 attempts from beyond the arc. Mississippi State finished the contest at 57.9% when shooting free throws by making 11 of 19 tries. In addition, Mississippi State collected 22 rebounds (5 offensive, 17 defensive), but didn't have a block. Mississippi State totaled 14 assists and had 1 steal in the matchup. With respect to the defense, Florida allowed 45.0% from the floor on 27 out of 60 shooting. They also recorded 25 assists for this contest as well as creating 13 turnovers and getting 7 steals. When it comes to rebounding, they collected a total of 51 with 19 of them being of the offensive variety. At the free throw line, the Gators made 10 of their 17 attempts for a rate of 58.8%. Florida walked away from the game with a 54.9% FG percentage (45 out of 82) and converted 8 of their 22 3-point shots.

Alex Condon is a player who was a major contributor in this contest. He finished shooting 63.2% from the floor and totaled 3 dimes. He saw the court for 26 mins and totaled 7 rebounds. He racked up 26 points on 12 out of 19 shooting.

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Florida comes into this matchup with a win-loss record of 24-6 on the season. They average 87.8 pts per game (12th in Division 1) on 48.2% from the floor. The Gators are shooting 30.9% on shots from 3-point land (227 of 734) and 71.2% from the free throw line. As a unit, Florida is pulling in 45.7 rebounds per contest and has 505 assists for the season, which is 45th in the nation in terms of passing. They turn it over 11.7 times per game and as a unit are committing 17.7 fouls every game.

When they are on the defensive end, the Gators have forced 11.3 turnovers per contest and they draw 19.5 personal fouls. They relinquish 32.1% on shots from downtown and they rank 116th in college in points per game from their opponents (71.5). The Gators defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 40.7% (750 of 1,845) and they concede 30.9 rebounds per game as a squad. They currently rank 14th in the nation in giving up assists to the opposition with 321 conceded on the campaign.

The last time they took the hardwood, the Kentucky Wildcats took a loss by a final score of 96-85 when they played Texas A&M. With respect to team rebounding, Kentucky allowed Texas A&M to snag 34 overall (8 offensive). They finished 46.4% from 3-point land by shooting 13 of 28 and finished the game at 27 of 39 at the charity stripe (69.2%). The Wildcats allowed Texas A&M to make 28 of 58 tries from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 48.3% for the contest. When the final whistle blew, the Wildcats walked away from this one shooting 30 for 63 from the field which had them sitting at 47.6%. With respect to 3-point attempts, Kentucky converted 8 of 26 attempts (30.8%). They were able to bury 17 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 60.7%. Texas A&M had 21 fouls in this matchup which took the Wildcats to the charity stripe for a total of 28 attempts. They also gave up possession of the ball 12 times, while earning 4 steals for the contest. The Wildcats pulled down 26 defensive boards and 12 offensive rebounds totaling 38 for the game.

Otega Oweh was important for the Wildcats for the matchup. He converted 6 out of 15 for the contest giving him a field goal percentage of 40.0%, and tallied 9 rebounds. He scored 24 points in his 37 mins on the court and had 5 dimes in the game.

Kentucky has a record of 19-11 so far this season. The Wildcats commit 18.0 fouls every game while shooting 72.1% from the charity stripe. Their rate of earning assists is at 16.2 times per contest (58th in the country) and they are losing possession via turnover 10.7 times per contest. Kentucky has scored 2,441 pts on the season (81.4 per contest) and they grab 38.2 rebounds per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Wildcats are hitting on 46.8% from the floor, which has them ranked 91st in the country.

The Wildcats on the defensive end are ranked 168th in D-1 in points allowed per contest with 73.4. They have forced 10.8 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 42.1% from the floor (66th in college hoops). The Kentucky defense surrenders 31.8% on shots from beyond the perimeter (231 of 726) and their opponents are converting on 74.1% of their foul shots. They concede 14.0 dimes and 33.7 boards on a nightly basis, which ranks them 242nd and 140th in D-1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Florida

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