Illinois State Redbirds vs Dayton Flyers Prediction, 3/25/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Illinois State Redbirds vs Dayton Flyers

Date: Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Location: UD Arena in Dayton, OH

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Illinois State (+5)

UD Arena is the location where the Dayton Flyers (25-11) will try to defeat the Illinois State Redbirds (21-12) on Wednesday in the NIT Quarterfinals. Dayton opens this matchup as 5-point favorites. The over/under is 138.

The Illinois State Redbirds took the court against Wake Forest and went home with a win by a final score of 78-75 in their last game. Illinois State finished the contest having earned a 41.0% FG percentage (25 of 61) and made 10 of their 33 shots from distance. From the charity stripe, the Redbirds converted 18 of their 21 tries for a rate of 85.7%. Pertaining to pulling down boards, they earned a total of 30 with 9 of them being offensive. They also dished out 12 assists in this matchup in addition to forcing the other team into 10 turnovers and earning 6 steals. In regard to the defense, Illinois State allowed the other team to shoot 50.0% from the floor on 28 of 56 shooting. Wake Forest doled out 15 dimes and had 7 steals for the matchup. Additionally, Wake Forest snagged 32 boards (7 offensive, 25 defensive), but didn't notch a block. Wake Forest ended up shooting 66.7% from the charity stripe by knocking down 14 of their 21 tries. They also made 5 of 16 shots from beyond the arc. With respect to personal fouls, the Redbirds ended up finishing with 18 and Wake Forest recorded 15 personal fouls.

Ty Pence is someone who was a contributor for this contest. He left the arena with 23 points on 8 of 11 shooting. He saw the court for 27 minutes played and also collected 4 boards. He ended up going 72.7% from the field and also earned 1 assist.

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Illinois State will take the court with a win-loss mark of 21-12 so far this season. They are giving up possession 11.1 times per game and as a team they commit 16.7 personal fouls per contest. As a team, Illinois State is collecting 35.9 rebounds per contest and is sitting with 453 dimes on the season, which ranks 178th in D-1 in terms of passing the ball. The Redbirds are hitting 35.3% on shots from 3-point land (288 of 816) and 70.1% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 75.2 points per outing (191st in college) while shooting 46.5% from the field.

On the defensive end of the court, the Redbirds are forcing their opponents into 11.0 turnovers per contest while drawing 17.3 fouls. They currently rank 130th in college in giving up assists to the opposition with 418 surrendered so far this season. The Redbirds are giving up a field goal percentage of 43.3% (811 of 1,874) and they surrender 32.6 boards per contest as a unit. They concede 32.5% on shots from downtown while they are 40th in college hoops in PPG allowed (68.1).

The last time they took the court, the Dayton Flyers went home victorious with a score of 80-61 against UNC Wilmington. Regarding how they rebounded, Dayton allowed UNC Wilmington to snag 26 in all (9 on the offensive glass). They went 14.3% from beyond the perimeter by going 3 of 21 and finished the contest at 10 of 16 at the free throw line (62.5%). The Flyers allowed UNC Wilmington to knock down 24 of their 57 attempts from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 42.1% for the game. When this game wrapped up, the Flyers ended up shooting 29 out of 56 from the field which had them at 51.8%. When talking about 3-pointers, Dayton buried 9 out of their 25 tries (36.0%). They were able to make 13 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 81.3%. UNC Wilmington had 17 personal fouls for this contest which took the Flyers to the free throw line for 16 attempts. They turned it over 10 times, while earning 7 steals for the game. The Flyers recorded 25 defensive rebounds and 8 offensive rebounds totaling 33 in the matchup.

De'Shayne Montgomery ended up being a factor for the Flyers for the matchup. He made 8 of 13 in the matchup for a field goal percentage of 61.5%, and earned 2 rebounds. He earned 20 points in his 33 mins on the court and earned 2 dimes in this contest.

Dayton has a win-loss record of 25-11 for the campaign. The Flyers commit 16.6 fouls per game and they shoot 75.4% from the free throw line. They are dishing out assists 14.3 times per contest (145th in college hoops) and they turn the ball over 11.7 times per game. Dayton has accounted for 2,688 points this year (74.7 per game) and they pull in 32.8 boards per game. As an offensive team, the Flyers are connecting on 45.0% from the floor, which is 192nd in college.

The Dayton defense surrenders 35.4% on shots from beyond the arc (286 of 809) and their opposition makes 70.6% of their free throw shots. They give up 12.1 dimes and 33.6 boards on a nightly basis, which is ranked 75th and 126th in those defensive categories. The Flyers on defense are ranked 64th in the nation in PPG given up with 69.5. They have forced 14.3 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 43.6% from the field (142nd in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Illinois State (+5)

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