Illinois State Redbirds vs St. Mary's Gaels Prediction, 11/2/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Illinois State Redbirds vs St. Mary's Gaels

Date: Monday, November 2, 2026

Location: University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, CA

TV: ESPN+

The Illinois State Redbirds (23-13 last year) are en route to University Credit Union Pavilion on Monday where they will take on the St. Mary's Gaels (27-6 last season).

The Illinois State Redbirds faced off with Wake Forest and walked away with a win by a score of 78-75 in their last game. Illinois State wrapped up the game having earned a 41.0% field goal percentage (25 out of 61) and made 10 of their 33 shots from distance. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Redbirds buried 18 of 21 shots for a rate of 85.7%. In regard to grabbing boards, they earned 30 with 9 of them being of the offensive variety. They also doled out 12 dimes in the matchup in addition to creating 10 turnovers and earning 6 steals. When discussing defending, Illinois State allowed the other team to go 50.0% from the floor on 28 out of 56 shooting. Wake Forest recorded 15 dimes and had 7 steals for this contest. Additionally, Wake Forest grabbed 32 boards (7 offensive, 25 defensive), but wasn't able to record a rejection. Wake Forest ended up going 66.7% at the free throw line by converting 14 of 21 attempts. They converted 5 of their 16 shots from downtown. In relation to personal fouls, the Redbirds left the arena with 18 while Wake Forest racked up 15 personal fouls.

Ty Pence is someone who had an impact in the matchup. He ended up walking away with 23 points on 8 of 11 shooting. He saw the court for 27 mins and pulled down 4 rebounds. He ended up shooting 72.7% from the field and totaled 1 assist.

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Illinois State comes into this matchup after finishing with a mark of 23-13 last year. They averaged 74.7 pts per contest (209th in D-1) while going 46.5% from the field. The Redbirds shot 35.3% on three-point shots (314 of 890) and 70.5% from the charity stripe. As a team, Illinois State grabbed 35.5 rebounds per contest and had 492 dimes last year, which had them ranked 119th in college in terms of passing the rock. They lost possession via turnover 11.4 times per contest and as a team committed 16.6 personal fouls per game.

When they were on the defensive end, the Redbirds forced their opponents into 10.8 turnovers per contest while drawing 17.1 fouls. They gave up 32.5% on shots from beyond the perimeter and they were 46th in college in PPG allowed (68.5). The Redbirds allowed an opponent shooting percentage of 43.5% (892 of 2,049) and they conceded 32.5 rebounds per contest as a squad. They were 229th in college hoops in giving up assists to the opposition with 462 surrendered last season.

When they last stepped on the court, the St. Mary's Gaels took a loss by a score of 63-50 against Texas A&M. The Gaels recorded 20 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive rebounds totaling 29 for the contest. They also coughed up the ball 16 times, while earning 5 steals for this contest. Texas A&M had 16 personal fouls in this contest which got the Gaels to the free throw line for 11 shots. They were able to make 4 of those for a rate of 36.4%. In reference to shots from beyond the arc, St. Mary's knocked down 10 of their 23 attempts (43.5%). When the final whistle blew, the Gaels shot 18 out of 47 from the floor which had them shooting 38.3%. The Gaels allowed Texas A&M to make 23 of their 52 tries from the floor which left them with a shooting percentage of 44.2% in this matchup. They finished 34.8% from 3-point land by shooting 8 out of 23 and ended up shooting 9 out of 13 at the charity stripe (69.2%). When talking about team rebounding, St. Mary's allowed Texas A&M to collect 29 overall (8 offensive).

Joshua Dent was important for the Gaels for the matchup. He scored 18 points in his 36 minutes of playing time and tallied 4 dimes in the game. He made 7 out of 14 for the matchup for a rate of 50.0%, and had 4 rebounds.

St. Mary's had a win-loss record of 27-6 last season. The Gaels were responsible for committing 15.5 personal fouls every game and they connected on 79.8% from the free throw line. They got an assist 15.2 times per game (101st in Division 1) and they lost possession by turning the ball over 11.0 times per game. St. Mary's scored 2,552 points last year (77.3 per contest) and they averaged 40.1 rebounds per game. As an offense, the Gaels hit 45.9% from the field, which ranked them 135th in the country.

The Gaels on defense were ranked 7th in college hoops in points given up per game with 64.5. They were able to force 10.3 TO's per game and allowed teams to shoot 40.6% from the floor (24th in D-1). The St. Mary's defense gave up 31.0% on shots from distance (218 of 703) and opponents knocked down 72.0% of their free throw attempts. They relinquished 30.5 dimes and 29.2 rebounds per contest, which was ranked 351st and 5th in college.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Illinois State

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