Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, 3/21/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans

Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026

Location: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Michigan State (-4)

KeyBank Center is the location where the Michigan State Spartans (25-7) will attempt to defeat the Louisville Cardinals (23-10) on Saturday in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State opens this matchup as 4-point favorites from oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 151.

The Louisville Cardinals played South Florida and walked away with a win by a score of 83-79 in their last game. When discussing personal fouls, the Cardinals ended up walking away with 17 while South Florida had 21 personal fouls. They buried 5 of their 33 attempts from downtown. South Florida went 87.5% at the free throw line by making 14 of their 16 tries. In addition, South Florida grabbed 36 rebounds (17 offensive, 19 defensive), but wasn't able to record a block. South Florida doled out 14 dimes and had 15 steals for the game. Regarding defending, Louisville allowed their opponent to shoot 39.0% from the floor on 30 of 77 shooting. They also doled out 17 assists for this contest in addition to forcing 9 turnovers and earning 5 steals. Regarding grabbing boards, they collected 38 with 11 of them being of the offensive variety. From the charity stripe, the Cardinals converted 14 of their 25 attempts for a percentage of 56.0%. Louisville wrapped up the contest with a 53.8% field goal percentage (28 out of 52) and knocked down 13 out of their 25 shots from beyond the arc.

Isaac McKneely is someone who was a contributor in this matchup. He ended up going 72.7% from the field and also earned 2 assists. He played for 28 mins and also grabbed 3 rebounds. He scored 23 points on 8 out of 11 shooting.

Get all of our NCAA Picks Tonight

Louisville comes into this game with a mark of 23-10 on the campaign. They cough up possession 11.6 times per game and as a unit they are committing 18.4 personal fouls per game. As a unit, Louisville is snagging 38.5 boards per game and has 564 assists on the year, which is 27th in the country in terms of passing. The Cardinals are hitting 35.7% on shots from downtown (380 of 1065) and 76.9% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 84.8 pts per contest (20th in D-1) while hitting 47.0% from the floor.

On the defensive end of the court, the Cardinals have forced 11.8 turnovers per game and they draw 17.7 fouls. They surrender 32.7% on 3-point attempts while they are 132nd in college in points per game allowed (72.2). The Cardinals defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 42.4% (832 of 1,964) and they surrender 33.1 rebounds per contest as a squad. They currently rank 98th in college hoops in giving up assists with 402 relinquished for the season.

The last time they took the court, the Michigan State Spartans took home the win by a final score of 92-67 when they played North Dakota State. The Spartans pulled down 31 defensive rebounds and 3 offensive boards for a total of 34 in the game. They coughed up the ball 12 times, while earning 5 steals in the game. North Dakota State had 17 fouls for this contest which took the Spartans to the charity stripe for a total of 18 shots. They were able to make 16 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 88.9%. When discussing shots from downtown, Michigan State buried 10 out of their 20 tries (50.0%). Overall, the Spartans finished shooting 33 out of 56 from the field which gave them a percentage of 58.9%. The Spartans permitted North Dakota State to bury 25 out of 57 attempts from the floor which left them with a rate of 43.9% for this contest. They finished 24.0% from distance by shooting 6 out of 25 and ended up going 11 out of 17 from the charity stripe (64.7%). When it comes to how they attacked the glass, Michigan State permitted North Dakota State to collect 19 in all (1 offensive).

Carson Cooper was important for the Spartans for the matchup. He made 7 of 9 in this contest for a field goal percentage of 77.8%, and had 10 rebounds. He recorded 20 points in his 30 mins of playing time and accumulated 3 assists for this contest.

Michigan State has a record of 25-7 so far this year. When it comes to executing on offense, the Spartans are hitting on 47.1% from the field, which is ranked 66th in college. Michigan State has scored 2,526 pts for the year (78.9 per contest) and they average 39.8 boards per contest. They are assisting teammates 18.5 times per game (6th in the country) and they cough up possession 11.5 times per contest. The Spartans are responsible for committing 16.3 fouls per game and they go 76.3% from the charity stripe.

The Spartans on the defensive end are ranked 43rd in the country in points given up per game with 68.4. They are forcing 9.9 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 41.0% from the floor (36th in college). The Michigan State defense allows 32.9% on shots from 3-point land (275 of 836) and opponents are making 75.1% of their shots from the charity stripe. They relinquish 13.2 assists and 28.3 rebounds per contest, which has them ranked 166th and 1st in Division 1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Michigan State (-4)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here