Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 2/17/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Location: Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX

TV: ESPN+

The Louisville Cardinals (19-6) are en route to Moody Coliseum on Tuesday where they will attempt to beat the SMU Mustangs (17-8).

The Louisville Cardinals faced off with Baylor and took home the win by a score of 82-71 in their last contest. Louisville finished the contest with a 56.0% field goal percentage (28 of 50) and made 8 of their 18 3-pointers. From the charity stripe, the Cardinals converted 18 of their 20 tries for a percentage of 90.0%. In reference to pulling down rebounds, they collected a total of 27 with 4 of them being on the offensive end. They also dished out 18 assists for this contest in addition to forcing the opposition into 9 turnovers and getting 6 steals. Regarding defending, Louisville allowed 36.7% from the floor on 22 out of 60 shooting. Baylor earned 10 assists and had 7 steals in the matchup. In addition, Baylor snagged 25 rebounds (11 offensive, 14 defensive), but didn't notch a block. Baylor went 83.3% at the free throw line by making 25 of their 30 attempts. They also knocked down 2 out of their 22 attempts from 3-point land. Concerning personal fouls, the Cardinals ended up finishing with 20 while Baylor racked up 17 personal fouls.

Mikel Brown Jr. is a guy who was important in this matchup. He was able to score 29 points on 8 out of 14 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 35 mins played and snagged 3 rebounds. He walked away from this one shooting 57.1% from the field and earned 6 dimes.

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Louisville will play this game with a mark of 19-6 on the year. They are giving up possession 11.6 times per contest and as a team are committing 18.8 personal fouls every game. As a unit, Louisville is grabbing 39.9 rebounds per game and has totaled 447 dimes for the season, which is 32nd in the country in terms of passing. The Cardinals are shooting 35.7% on shots beyond the perimeter (291 of 816) and 77.2% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 86.9 pts per contest (16th in Division 1) while connecting on 47.3% from the floor.

On the defensive end of the court, the Cardinals are able to force 12.2 turnovers per game and they draw 18.7 personal fouls. They are relinquishing 32.3% on shots from distance and they are 100th in college hoops in PPG allowed (70.9). The Cardinals defensively are allowing a field goal percentage of 40.3% (607 of 1,507) and they surrender 33.7 rebounds per contest as a team. They rank 45th in college in allowing assists to their opponents with 292 relinquished for the year.

The last time they took the court, the SMU Mustangs took a loss by a score of 79-78 when they played Syracuse. When talking about team rebounding, SMU permitted Syracuse to get 32 in total (8 on the offensive glass). They finished shooting 36.7% from beyond the arc by shooting 11 out of 30 and finished the game at 14 out of 18 from the free throw line (77.8%). The Mustangs allowed Syracuse to convert 27 of 60 attempts from the floor which left them shooting 45.0% for the contest. Overall, the Mustangs finished shooting 29 for 67 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 43.3%. When talking about three-point attempts, SMU made 7 of 20 attempts (35.0%). They were able to make 13 of those for a percentage of 76.5%. Syracuse was called for 16 personal fouls in this contest which got the Mustangs to the free throw line for 17 tries. They gave up possession of the ball 6 times, while getting 6 steals in this contest. The Mustangs were able to snag 24 defensive boards and 12 offensive rebounds totaling 36 for this contest.

Jaden Toombs ended up being a factor for the Mustangs in the game. He knocked down 7 out of 11 for the contest giving him a rate of 63.6%, and tallied 5 rebounds. He recorded 19 points in his 30 mins on the hardwood, but went home with no dimes.

SMU has a record of 17-8 for the season. The Mustangs are responsible for committing 17.2 fouls per contest and they hit 76.2% from the charity stripe. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 17.6 times per game (24th in the nation) and they are turning it over 11.5 times per contest. SMU has scored 2,155 pts for the season (86.2 per contest) and they collect 38.1 rebounds per game. As an offense, the Mustangs are hitting on 49.5% from the field, which has them ranked 23rd in the country.

The Mustangs on defense are ranked 281st in college in points per game surrendered with 77.6. They are forcing 12.6 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 43.4% from the floor (144th in college). The SMU defense gives up 32.8% on 3-point attempts (236 of 720) and opponents are knocking down 71.3% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have conceded 16.3 assists and 34.2 boards per game, ranking them 341st and 170th in college hoops.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take SMU

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