Merrimack Warriors vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers Prediction, 2/5/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Merrimack Warriors vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026

Location: Knott Arena in Emmitsburg, MD

TV: ESPN+

The Merrimack Warriors (14-9) are traveling to Knott Arena on Thursday where they will take on the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (10-14).

The Merrimack Warriors faced Sacred Heart and took home the win by a score of 75-58 in their last contest. Merrimack walked away from the game having earned a 39.7% field goal percentage (25 of 63) and buried 9 out of their 30 shots from 3-point land. At the charity stripe, the Warriors converted 16 of 19 attempts for a rate of 84.2%. Concerning grabbing boards, they collected 21 with 5 of them being on the offensive end. They also doled out 14 assists in the game while forcing 15 turnovers and having 11 steals. In terms of defending, Merrimack allowed their opponent to shoot 42.2% from the field on 19 of 45 shooting. Sacred Heart recorded 9 assists and had 3 steals for the matchup. In addition, Sacred Heart pulled down 44 rebounds (25 offensive, 19 defensive), but couldn't earn a rejection. Sacred Heart finished the game at 88.9% at the free throw line by making 16 of their 18 shots. They also made 4 of 14 shots from long range. With respect to personal fouls, the Warriors finished with 11 while Sacred Heart totaled 15 personal fouls.

Tye Dorset is a guy who played a role for this contest. He scored 16 points on 6 out of 13 shooting. He was on the court for 40 mins and collected 1 board. He went 46.2% from the floor and recorded 3 assists.

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Merrimack will enter this game with a mark of 14-9 so far this season. They average 67.3 points per contest (338th in Division 1) while shooting 41.0% from the field. The Warriors are shooting 31.6% on three-point attempts (179 of 566) and 77.2% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Merrimack is snagging 28.5 boards per game and has earned 274 assists on the year, which ranks 304th in college in terms of passing the rock. They turn it over 10.0 times per contest and as a team are committing 17.1 fouls per game.

On the defensive end of the court, the Warriors are forcing their opponents into 12.8 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 16.9 fouls. They are conceding 29.9% from beyond the arc and they rank 59th in D-1 in opponents points per game (68.6). The Warriors defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 42.8% (546 of 1,277) and they relinquish 39.1 boards per contest as a squad. They rank 185th in Division 1 in giving up assists with 299 conceded on the season.

In their last game, the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers went home victorious with a score of 72-65 when they played Manhattan. When talking about rebounds, Mount St. Mary's allowed Manhattan to snag 28 in total (12 on the offensive glass). They finished 25.0% from downtown by going 8 out of 32 and finished the game at 11 of 13 from the free throw line (84.6%). The Mountaineers permitted Manhattan to bury 23 of their 60 attempts from the floor which left them with a rate of 38.3% in the matchup. When the game finished, the Mountaineers finished the game shooting 25 for 61 from the field which had them shooting 41.0%. With regard to shots from distance, Mount St. Mary's buried 9 out of 24 attempts (37.5%). They were able to knock down 13 of the free throw tries for a rate of 92.9%. Manhattan committed 15 fouls in this contest which took the Mountaineers to the free throw line for a total of 14 shots. They also coughed it up 13 times, while getting 6 steals in this contest. The Mountaineers corralled 23 defensive rebounds and 11 offensive boards totaling 34 for this contest.

Arlandus Keyes ended up being important for the Mountaineers in this game. He made 4 of 9 in this matchup for a rate of 44.4%, and added 5 rebounds. He earned 13 points in his 34 mins of playing time and tallied 4 assists for the contest.

Mount St. Mary's has a win-loss record of 10-14 this year. When it comes to offense, the Mountaineers are shooting 43.2% from the field, which ranks them 289th in D-1. Mount St. Mary's has scored 1,620 pts this year (67.5 per contest) and they grab 36.5 boards per game. Their rate of earning assists is at 13.5 times per game (225th in the nation) and they cough up possession 15.8 times per contest. The Mountaineers commit 17.9 fouls every game and they hit 67.7% from the free throw line.

The Mountaineers on defense are ranked 136th in D-1 in PPG given up with 72.0. They are forcing 11.1 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 40.3% from the floor (32nd in college). The Mount St. Mary's defense gives up 33.9% on 3-point attempts (213 of 629) and their opposition knocks down 74.9% of their free throw attempts. They have given up 12.5 dimes and 34.0 rebounds on a nightly basis, which is 108th and 158th in D-1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Merrimack

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