Miami RedHawks vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 3/18/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Redhawks vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Location: UD Arena in Dayton, OH

TV: truTV

Odds/Point Spread: SMU (-6)

UD Arena is where the SMU Mustangs (20-13) will take on the Miami Redhawks (31-1) on Wednesday in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. SMU opens this matchup as 6-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 164.

The Miami RedHawks took the court against UMass and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 87-83 in their last contest. In regard to personal fouls, the RedHawks finished with 17 and UMass recorded 18 personal fouls. They converted 3 of their 15 tries from beyond the arc. UMass finished the contest at 77.8% from the free throw line by making 14 of 18 tries. Moreover, UMass collected 37 rebounds (15 offensive, 22 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. UMass recorded 15 dimes and had 4 steals for this contest. Concerning defense, Miami allowed the other team to go 52.2% from the floor on 35 of 67 shooting. They also recorded 19 assists in this contest in addition to forcing 10 turnovers and having 5 steals. With respect to hauling in rebounds, they compiled 19 with 7 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the charity stripe, the RedHawks converted 13 of their 18 attempts for a rate of 72.2%. Miami ended with a 48.3% FG percentage (29 of 60) and knocked down 12 out of their 33 3-point shots.

Brant Byers is one player who had an impact in the matchup. He racked up 17 points on 5 of 11 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 30 mins and grabbed 5 boards. He finished the game at 45.5% from the floor but had no dimes when the game ended.

Get all of our NCAA Picks Tonight

Miami will play this contest with a mark of 31-1 for the season. They are averaging 90.7 points per outing (2nd in Division 1) while hitting 52.4% from the floor. The RedHawks are connecting on 39.2% on shots from distance (334 of 853) and 74.9% from the free throw line. As a team, Miami is grabbing 35.5 rebounds per game and has accumulated 516 dimes so far this year, which has them ranked 72nd in the nation in terms of passing. They lose possession by turning the ball over 10.5 times per game and as a team they are committing 16.1 fouls on a nightly basis.

When they are on defense, the RedHawks are able to force 12.9 turnovers per game and they draw 19.5 personal fouls. They are giving up 32.5% from 3-point land while they are 224th in D-1 in points per game allowed (75.3). The RedHawks defense is giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 43.6% (869 of 1,994) and they concede 33.5 rebounds per contest as a team. They currently rank 118th in college in allowing assists to the opposition with 407 surrendered on the season.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the SMU Mustangs took a loss by a final score of 62-58 against Louisville. The Mustangs earned 23 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards totaling 32 for the matchup. They also coughed up the ball 11 times, while getting 5 steals in this game. Louisville was called for 12 personal fouls in the game which took the Mustangs to the free throw line for 3 attempts. They were able to knock down 1 of those for a rate of 33.3%. In reference to 3-pointers, SMU made 9 out of their 27 tries (33.3%). When the final whistle blew, the Mustangs went 24 out of 56 from the field which had them sitting at 42.9%. The Mustangs permitted Louisville to convert 21 of 53 tries from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 39.6% in this contest. They finished 23.1% from 3-point land by going 6 of 26 and ended up shooting 14 out of 20 from the free throw line (70.0%). Concerning rebounding, SMU allowed Louisville to get 28 in total (6 offensive).

Jaron Pierre Jr. ended up having an impact for the Mustangs for the matchup. He recorded 17 points in his 39 mins on the court, but wasn't able to tally an assist. He knocked down 6 out of 10 in this matchup for a field goal percentage of 60.0%, and totaled 4 rebounds.

SMU has a mark of 20-13 for the season. The Mustangs commit 16.9 fouls per game and they hit 74.1% from the free throw line. Their rate of earning assists is at 16.9 times per game (31st in college) and they are turning it over 11.3 times per contest. SMU has scored 2,779 pts for the season (84.2 per game) and they grab 37.7 rebounds per game. As an offensive unit, the Mustangs are shooting 49.0% from the floor, which is 24th in the country.

The Mustangs on defense are ranked 284th in college in points given up per game with 77.6. They are forcing their opponents into 12.2 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 43.4% from the field (130th in the nation). The SMU defense concedes 33.9% on shots from 3-point land (325 of 960) and their opponents are making 71.8% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have allowed 16.2 dimes and 34.1 total rebounds per game, which is 342nd and 158th in the country.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take SMU (-6)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here