Missouri State Bears vs Liberty Flames Prediction, 3/11/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Missouri State Bears vs Liberty Flames

Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Location: Propst Arena in Huntsville, AL

TV: ESPN+

Propst Arena is where the Liberty Flames (25-6) will meet the Missouri State Bears (14-17) on Wednesday in the Conference USA Tournament.

The Missouri State Bears faced off with MTSU and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 75-63 in their last game. With respect to personal fouls, the Bears finished with 13 while MTSU finished the game with 17 personal fouls. They made 9 of their 21 attempts from distance. MTSU walked away from this one shooting 87.5% from the charity stripe by knocking down 14 of 16 attempts. Moreover, MTSU grabbed 31 rebounds (3 offensive, 28 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. MTSU recorded 17 dimes and had 6 steals in the game. Pertaining to the defense, Missouri State allowed 46.4% from the field on 26 out of 56 shooting. They also doled out 16 assists for this contest while creating 8 turnovers and having 2 steals. With regard to pulling down boards, they earned 29 with 6 of them being offensive. At the charity stripe, the Bears converted 12 of 17 attempts for a rate of 70.6%. Missouri State walked away from the game with a 41.8% FG percentage (23 out of 55) and buried 5 of 23 3-point shots.

Michael Osei-Bonsu is one player who was a factor in this matchup. He walked away from this one shooting 64.3% from the field and dished out 5 assists. He played for 35 minutes played and also snagged 11 boards. He finished with 20 points on 9 out of 14 shooting.

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Missouri State enters this matchup with a record of 14-17 for the campaign. They are averaging 75.3 points per game (195th in the nation) while shooting 44.5% from the floor. The Bears are hitting 32.4% on 3-pointers (234 of 722) and 68.2% from the free throw line. As a unit, Missouri State is collecting 35.0 boards per game and is sitting with 447 assists so far this year, which ranks 153rd in the country in terms of passing. They are giving up possession 11.3 times per game and as a unit they are committing 17.8 fouls on a nightly basis.

Defensively, the Bears are forcing 11.6 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 18.7 fouls. They concede 34.5% from beyond the arc while they are 187th in D-1 in points per game allowed (73.9). The Bears defensively are giving up a FG percentage of 45.3% (795 of 1,754) and they concede 33.7 rebounds per game as a team. They are ranked 125th in D-1 in giving up assists to their opponents with 400 relinquished this season.

In their last game, the Liberty Flames took home the win by a final score of 79-72 when they played Sam Houston State. When talking about cleaning up the glass, Liberty permitted Sam Houston State to pull down 37 overall (15 on the offensive side). They shot 50.0% from 3-point land by shooting 8 out of 16 and ended up going 8 of 15 at the free throw line (53.3%). The Flames allowed Sam Houston State to convert 28 of their 62 tries from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 45.2% for this contest. At the conclusion of this game, the Flames went 28 out of 55 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 50.9%. When discussing shooting from beyond the arc, Liberty made 14 of their 36 tries (38.9%). They were able to knock down 9 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 81.8%. Sam Houston State committed 13 personal fouls for the game which took the Flames to the free throw line for a total of 11 shots. They also turned it over 8 times, while getting 3 steals in this game. The Flames earned 24 defensive boards and 6 offensive boards for a total of 30 for the matchup.

Zach Cleveland was important for the Flames in the matchup. He buried 9 of 10 for this contest for a field goal rate of 90.0%, and earned 9 rebounds. He earned 19 points in his 37 mins of playing time and totaled 9 dimes in this game.

Liberty has a win-loss mark of 25-6 for the year. When it comes to offense, the Flames are shooting 51.7% from the field, which is 3rd in the country. Liberty has accumulated 2,432 pts on the year (78.5 per game) and they average 29.1 boards per game. They are assisting teammates 17.3 times per contest (25th in the country) and they are turning it over 8.9 times per contest. The Flames are committing 14.0 fouls per contest and they connect on 70.5% from the charity stripe.

The Liberty defense gives up 37.4% on three-point shots (250 of 668) and their opponents are connecting on 71.9% of their shots from the free throw line. They concede 11.9 dimes and 33.3 rebounds per contest, which has them ranked 65th and 111th in Division 1. The Flames on the defensive side of the court are 79th in college in PPG allowed with 70.2. They are forcing their opponents into 11.3 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 44.9% from the floor (232nd in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Missouri State

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