Missouri State Bears vs MTSU Blue Raiders Prediction, 1/17/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Missouri State Bears vs MTSU Blue Raiders

Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026

Location: Murphy Center in Murfreesboro, TN

TV: ESPN+

Murphy Center is the location where the MTSU Blue Raiders (10-7) will try to defeat the Missouri State Bears (10-7) on Saturday.

The Missouri State Bears stepped onto the hardwood against Western Kentucky and took a loss by a score of 87-72 in their last contest. Missouri State ended the contest having earned a 42.1% field goal percentage (24 out of 57) and buried 9 out of their 35 three-point attempts. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Bears converted 15 of their 20 attempts for a percentage of 75.0%. When talking about grabbing rebounds, they collected a total of 26 with 11 of them being on the offensive end. They also doled out 18 assists in this contest in addition to forcing 6 turnovers and having 5 steals. With regard to defense, Missouri State allowed the other team to shoot 50.9% from the floor on 28 of 55 shooting. Western Kentucky distributed 15 dimes and had 8 steals in this game. On top of that, Western Kentucky collected 31 rebounds (10 offensive, 21 defensive), but wasn't able to put a block in the stat sheet. Western Kentucky shot 82.8% at the charity stripe by burying 24 of 29 attempts. They knocked down 7 of 16 tries from beyond the arc. In the matter of fouls, the Bears finished with 18 while Western Kentucky recorded 17 fouls.

Keith Palek III is one player who was a major factor in this game. He walked away from this one shooting 50.0% from the floor and totaled 5 assists. He was on the hardwood for 36 mins and also collected 4 rebounds. He ended up scoring 22 points on 8 of 16 shooting.

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Missouri State steps onto the court with a mark of 10-7 for the year. They currently have an average of 75.2 pts per contest (225th in the country) while hitting 44.8% from the floor. The Bears are shooting 30.4% on shots from 3-point land (125 of 411) and 67.8% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Missouri State is collecting 35.8 rebounds per game and has earned 245 assists so far this season, which has them ranked 198th in Division 1 in terms of passing the rock. They are turning it over 11.5 times per contest and as a team they commit 17.2 personal fouls per contest.

When they are on the defensive end, the Bears are able to force 11.8 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 19.0 personal fouls. They are currently ranked 144th in college hoops in giving up assists to their opponents with 222 surrendered on the campaign. The Bears defense is giving up a FG percentage of 43.8% (427 of 976) and they concede 34.4 boards per game as a squad. They are giving up 33.0% on shots from distance while they are 139th in college in points per game from their opponents (71.8).

In their last game, the MTSU Blue Raiders went home defeated by a final of 59-58 when they faced Louisiana Tech. The Blue Raiders collected 29 defensive boards and 10 offensive rebounds totaling 39 for the matchup. They turned it over 12 times, while getting 3 steals in the matchup. Louisiana Tech was called for 14 personal fouls for the game which took the Blue Raiders to the free throw line for a total of 18 attempts. They were able to bury 9 of those for a clip of 50.0%. In reference to 3-point attempts, MTSU converted 7 of 20 tries (35.0%). In all, the Blue Raiders walked away from this one shooting 21 for 54 from the field which had them shooting 38.9%. The Blue Raiders allowed Louisiana Tech to make 21 of 58 tries from the field which left them with a rate of 36.2% for the contest. They finished 8.3% from beyond the perimeter by shooting 1 of 12 and walked away from this one shooting 16 out of 21 at the free throw line (76.2%). When it comes to rebounds, MTSU permitted Louisiana Tech to collect 30 in all (9 offensive).

Torey Alston pitched in for the Blue Raiders for the matchup. He knocked down 4 out of 8 for this game for a field goal percentage of 50.0%, and totaled 5 rebounds. He earned 16 points in his 32 mins on the court and had 1 assist in this contest.

MTSU has a record of 10-7 on the year. As an offense, the Blue Raiders are shooting 44.1% from the floor, which is ranked 252nd in the country. MTSU has 1,271 pts on the campaign (74.8 per game) and they average 37.2 rebounds per game. They are assisting teammates 14.2 times per game (192nd in college) and they are giving up possession 11.3 times per game. The Blue Raiders are committing 17.7 fouls every game and they hit 68.4% from the free throw line.

The Blue Raiders are ranked 72nd in college in points per game surrendered with 68.8. They are able to force 11.8 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 41.9% from the field (92nd in college). The MTSU defense concedes 27.7% on shots from 3-point land (92 of 332) and their opponents are knocking down 72.0% of their free throw attempts. They have allowed 11.5 assists and 35.9 boards every game, which ranks 47th and 265th in the nation.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Missouri State

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