Missouri State Bears vs Sam Houston State Bearkats Prediction, 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Missouri State Bears vs Sam Houston State Bearkats

Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Location: Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum in Huntsville, TX

TV: ESPN+

The Sam Houston State Bearkats (20-8) will compete against the Missouri State Bears (13-15) at Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum on Saturday.

The Missouri State Bears faced Louisiana Tech and ended up losing by a score of 72-70 in their last game. Missouri State wrapped up the game having earned a 40.7% FG percentage (22 out of 54) and made 6 of their 17 3-point attempts. From the charity stripe, the Bears made 20 of their 24 shots for a percentage of 83.3%. In regard to rebounding, they compiled a total of 30 with 12 of them being of the offensive variety. They also doled out 14 assists in the game while forcing the other team into 14 turnovers and having 9 steals. When talking about defense, Missouri State let their opponent shoot 48.0% from the floor on 24 of 50 shooting. Louisiana Tech dished out 10 assists and had 7 steals for the matchup. On top of that, Louisiana Tech collected 29 boards (8 offensive, 21 defensive), but wasn't able to record a rejection. Louisiana Tech finished shooting 62.5% at the free throw line by burying 15 of 24 attempts. They also converted 9 out of their 25 shots from long range. When it comes to fouls, the Bears finished with 17 and Louisiana Tech recorded 15 fouls.

Keith Palek III is a player who was a factor for this contest. He ended up walking away with 29 points on 10 of 19 shooting. He saw the court for 35 mins and pulled down 6 rebounds. He finished 52.6% from the floor and dished out 3 dimes.

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Missouri State comes into this game with a win-loss record of 13-15 on the campaign. They turn the ball over 11.7 times per game and as a unit they commit 17.9 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Missouri State is pulling in 35.4 boards per game and has totaled 397 dimes so far this season, which is 197th in D-1 in terms of passing. The Bears are connecting on 32.4% on shots from beyond the arc (213 of 657) and 67.9% from the free throw line. They average 75.1 pts per game (206th in the nation) while connecting on 44.2% from the field.

On defense, the Bears are forcing 12.0 turnovers per game and they draw 18.9 personal fouls. They are ranked 122nd in college in allowing assists to the opposition with 365 relinquished on the campaign. The Bears defensively are allowing a FG percentage of 45.2% (715 of 1,582) and they relinquish 33.6 rebounds per game as a unit. They are relinquishing 34.4% on three-point shots and they rank 174th in college hoops in points per game allowed (73.5).

When they last played, the Sam Houston State Bearkats got the victory with a final of 100-67 against FIU. In regard to attacking the glass, Sam Houston State permitted FIU to grab 22 in total (6 on the offensive side). They wrapped up this game 16.7% from distance via 3 of 18 and ended up shooting 22 of 29 at the free throw line (75.9%). The Bearkats permitted FIU to bury 21 of their 54 tries from the field which gave them a rate of 38.9% in the matchup. When the final whistle blew, the Bearkats shot 35 out of 58 from the floor which gave them a rate of 60.3%. With regard to three-point attempts, Sam Houston State converted 10 of their 16 tries (62.5%). They were able to make 20 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 80.0%. FIU committed 21 fouls for the matchup which got the Bearkats to the charity stripe for a total of 25 shots. They also gave up possession of the ball 13 times, while getting 12 steals in this contest. The Bearkats earned 27 defensive rebounds and 11 offensive boards for a total of 38 in this game.

Jacob Walker was important for the Bearkats in this game. He converted 6 of 9 for the contest giving him a field goal percentage of 66.7%, and accounted for 3 rebounds. He had 20 points in his 29 minutes on the hardwood and added 1 assist for this game.

Sam Houston State has a win-loss record of 20-8 on the campaign. When it comes to offensive execution, the Bearkats are connecting on 47.1% from the field, which is 73rd in the nation. Sam Houston State has accumulated 2,334 points on the campaign (83.4 per game) and they pull down 40.9 rebounds per game. They are assisting teammates 15.8 times per game (78th in the country) and they turn it over 12.1 times per contest. The Bearkats have committed 17.7 fouls every game and they go 73.3% from the free throw line.

The Sam Houston State defense gives up 30.3% on three-point shots (217 of 717) and their opponents are converting on 69.9% of their foul shots. They allow 12.5 assists and 34.0 rebounds every game, which has them ranked 105th and 154th in college. The Bearkats on the defensive end are ranked 182nd in college in PPG surrendered with 73.7. They are forcing their opponents into 11.7 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 41.6% from the field (57th in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Missouri State

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