Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction, 1/14/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Location: E.A. Diddle Arena in Bowling Green, KY

TV: ESPN+

E.A. Diddle Arena is where the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (10-6) will meet the Missouri State Bears (10-6) on Wednesday.

The Missouri State Bears played FIU and walked away with a win by a score of 79-71 in their last game. Concerning fouls, the Bears ended up finishing with 17 and FIU finished the game with 21 fouls. They also buried 4 out of their 18 tries from beyond the arc. FIU ended up going 57.9% at the free throw line by knocking down 11 of their 19 tries. Furthermore, FIU snagged 29 boards (10 offensive, 19 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. FIU dished out 17 assists and had 10 steals for this contest. Pertaining to defending, Missouri State allowed the other team to shoot 44.4% from the field on 28 out of 63 shooting. They also dished out 18 assists in this matchup in addition to forcing the opposition into 11 turnovers and having 6 steals. In reference to grabbing rebounds, they collected 36 with 10 of them being offensive. At the free throw line, the Bears buried 19 of 31 attempts for a percentage of 61.3%. Missouri State ended with a 47.2% FG percentage (25 of 53) and made 10 of their 31 shots from downtown.

Keith Palek III is one player who was a major contributor in this game. He finished the game at 50.0% from the floor and earned 5 assists. He was on the court for 36 minutes played and pulled down 4 rebounds. He ended up with 22 points on 8 of 16 shooting.

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Missouri State will enter this contest with a win-loss mark of 10-6 for the campaign. They currently have an average of 75.4 points per game (221st in Division 1) while shooting 44.9% from the floor. The Bears are connecting on 30.9% on shots from downtown (116 of 376) and 67.4% from the free throw line. As a team, Missouri State is pulling down 36.1 boards per contest and has earned 227 assists for the campaign, which is 240th in D-1 in terms of passing. They are turning it over 11.4 times per game and as a team they commit 17.2 fouls per contest.

Defensively, the Bears have forced 12.1 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 19.1 personal fouls. They are currently ranked 106th in college in giving up assists to the opposition with 207 surrendered this year. The Bears defensively are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 43.3% (399 of 921) and they concede 34.4 rebounds per contest as a unit. They concede 32.4% on 3-point shots while they are 112th in college hoops in points per game allowed (70.9).

The last time they took the court, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers walked away with a victory by a final of 68-56 when they faced UTEP. When discussing how they attacked the glass, Western Kentucky allowed UTEP to pull down 32 in all (7 offensive). They finished the game shooting 22.7% from downtown by going 5 out of 22 and finished the game at 17 out of 22 from the charity stripe (77.3%). The Hilltoppers permitted UTEP to convert 17 out of their 53 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 32.1% in the matchup. At the conclusion of this game, the Hilltoppers shot 25 for 64 from the field which had them at 39.1%. Concerning shots from beyond the arc, Western Kentucky made 5 of 19 attempts (26.3%). They were able to bury 13 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 59.1%. UTEP had 17 personal fouls in this game which took the Hilltoppers to the charity stripe for a total of 22 shots. They coughed up the ball 10 times, while getting 13 steals for this game. The Hilltoppers were able to snag 26 defensive boards and 17 offensive rebounds totaling 43 in this matchup.

Teagan Moore ended up being a factor for the Hilltoppers in this game. He made 7 out of 8 for this game for a field goal percentage of 87.5%, and totaled 7 rebounds. He earned 19 points in his 25 minutes of playing time and tallied 2 dimes for the matchup.

Western Kentucky has a win-loss mark of 10-6 on the year. In terms of offensive execution, the Hilltoppers are hitting on 40.9% from the field, which ranks 338th in the country. Western Kentucky has tallied 1,296 pts on the year (81.0 per game) and they snag 42.5 rebounds per game. Their rate of earning assists is at 13.3 times per contest (263rd in the country) and they are turning it over 10.6 times per contest. The Hilltoppers commit 19.5 personal fouls every game and they shoot 73.5% from the charity stripe.

The Western Kentucky defense surrenders 34.2% from downtown (143 of 418) and opponents are knocking down 70.1% of their shots from the free throw line. They allow 14.6 assists and 38.9 rebounds every game, which ranks them 263rd and 343rd in those categories on the defensive end. The Hilltoppers defensively are ranked 243rd in college hoops in PPG allowed with 75.7. They are forcing their opponents into 13.4 TO's every game and have let teams shoot 41.5% from the floor (81st in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Western Kentucky

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