Morgan State Bears vs UMBC Retrievers Prediction, 11/12/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Morgan State Bears vs UMBC Retrievers

Date: Thursday, November 12, 2026

Location: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore, MD

TV: ESPN+

The UMBC Retrievers (1-2) will try to beat the Morgan State Bears (3-0) at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena on Thursday.

The Morgan State Bears faced Niagara and earned the victory with a final of 73-67 in their last game. Morgan State ended the contest having earned a 33.3% FG percentage (21 of 63) and converted 8 out of their 21 three-point attempts. From the charity stripe, the Bears made 23 of their 27 shots for a rate of 85.2%. With respect to rebounding, they earned a total of 42 with 15 of them being of the offensive sort. They also doled out 7 dimes in this matchup while forcing the opposition into 14 turnovers and earning 10 steals. With respect to the defense, Morgan State allowed the other team to shoot 34.0% from the floor on 18 of 53 shooting. Niagara doled out 13 dimes and had 7 steals for the game. Moreover, Niagara snagged 29 boards (7 offensive, 22 defensive), but wasn't able to record a rejection. Niagara finished 70.0% from the free throw line by making 21 of their 30 attempts. They also made 10 out of their 29 shots from 3-point range. In reference to fouls, the Bears ended up walking away with 25 and Niagara accounted for 22 fouls.

Keith Richard is a guy who was a major factor in the matchup. He ended up finishing with 22 points on 5 out of 13 shooting. He played 38 mins played and also grabbed 4 boards. He finished 38.5% from the floor and earned 1 assist.

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Morgan State will enter this matchup with a mark of 3-0 this season. They average 90.3 pts per game (76th in D-1) on 44.8% from the floor. The Bears are shooting 38.1% on shots beyond the perimeter (32 of 84) and 68.1% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Morgan State is snagging 52.0 rebounds per contest and has racked up 47 dimes on the season, which is 57th in the country in terms of passing. They turn it over 14.7 times per game and as a team they commit 20.7 fouls every game.

When they are on defense, the Bears are forcing 15.7 turnovers every game and they draw 19.7 fouls. They are giving up 24.6% on 3-point shots and they are 49th in college hoops in points per game allowed (59.0). The Bears are allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 29.1% (55 of 189) and they surrender 35.3 rebounds per game as a team. They currently rank 122nd in Division 1 in allowing assists to the opposition with 25 conceded this year.

When they last played, the UMBC Retrievers went home victorious with a score of 91-61 when they played McDaniel. The Retrievers earned 38 defensive boards and 15 offensive rebounds for a total of 53 for the matchup. They gave up possession of the ball 10 times, while getting 8 steals in the game. McDaniel was called for 13 fouls for this contest which got the Retrievers to the charity stripe for 11 attempts. They were able to bury 10 of those for a percentage of 90.9%. When talking about shooting from distance, UMBC converted 15 out of their 47 tries (31.9%). When the final whistle blew, the Retrievers finished shooting 33 for 78 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 42.3%. The Retrievers permitted McDaniel to make 25 out of their 68 tries from the floor which left them with a shooting percentage of 36.8% for this contest. They shot 25.9% from beyond the arc by going 7 out of 27 and finished the game at 4 out of 6 at the free throw line (66.7%). When it comes to how they rebounded, UMBC allowed McDaniel to grab 29 in total (3 on the offensive glass).

Devin Ceaser was important for the Retrievers in the matchup. He made 6 out of 12 in this matchup for a field goal rate of 50.0%, and tallied 1 rebound. He scored 17 points in his 23 minutes on the court and had 2 assists for this game.

UMBC has a record of 1-2 this season. The Retrievers have committed 17.0 personal fouls every game and they go 85.1% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 14.0 times per contest (223rd in the country) and they turn the ball over 13.7 times per contest. UMBC has accounted for 225 points this year (75.0 per game) and they pull in 42.0 boards per game. When it comes to offensive execution, the Retrievers are hitting on 39.3% from the floor, which is ranked 310th in the nation.

The Retrievers on defense are ranked 252nd in the nation in points given up per game with 77.0. They are forcing 12.3 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 40.4% from the field (163rd in college). The UMBC defense gives up 31.0% on 3-pointers (27 of 87) and their opposition knocks down 73.3% of their shots from the free throw line. They have relinquished 15.0 dimes and 42.0 total boards per game, which is 269th and 334th in those categories.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take UMBC and under the total points

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