MTSU Blue Raiders vs Missouri State Bears Prediction, 3/7/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: MTSU Blue Raiders vs Missouri State Bears

Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026

Location: Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, MO

TV: ESPN+

The Missouri State Bears (13-16) will try to beat the MTSU Blue Raiders (15-14) at Great Southern Bank Arena on Saturday.

The MTSU Blue Raiders played New Mexico State and earned the victory with a final of 86-85 in their last game. When it comes to personal fouls, the Blue Raiders ended up finishing with 14 while New Mexico State finished the game with 21 personal fouls. They buried 7 out of their 25 attempts from 3-point land. New Mexico State finished 75.0% at the charity stripe by knocking down 12 of 16 attempts. Moreover, New Mexico State collected 32 rebounds (14 offensive, 18 defensive), but wasn't able to put a block in the stat sheet. New Mexico State dished out 10 assists and had 9 steals for the game. With regard to defense, MTSU let their opponent shoot 44.6% from the floor on 33 out of 74 shooting. They also doled out 11 dimes for this contest while forcing the other team into 7 turnovers and getting 3 steals. In reference to grabbing rebounds, they compiled 34 with 9 of them being offensive. At the free throw line, the Blue Raiders made 21 of 27 attempts for a percentage of 77.8%. MTSU finished the game having earned a 50.9% field goal percentage (29 out of 57) and converted 7 of their 22 shots from beyond the arc.

Jahvin Carter is one guy who was a factor in the matchup. He finished shooting 58.8% from the field and dished out 7 assists. He played for 33 minutes and grabbed 3 rebounds. He accounted for 27 points on 10 of 17 shooting.

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MTSU will enter this matchup with a mark of 15-14 on the season. They have an average of 75.8 points per game (180th in D-1) while hitting 44.7% from the floor. The Blue Raiders are shooting 33.6% on shots from 3-point land (267 of 795) and 69.6% from the charity stripe. As a unit, MTSU is pulling down 36.4 rebounds per contest and has earned 414 dimes for the year, which ranks 207th in D-1 in terms of passing the ball. They are turning it over 11.3 times per contest and as a team they commit 17.1 personal fouls per contest.

On defense, the Blue Raiders are forcing 11.1 turnovers every game and they draw 15.7 fouls. They are ranked 37th in college hoops in giving up assists to the opposition with 342 conceded on the year. The Blue Raiders defensively are allowing and opponent field goal percentage of 44.1% (742 of 1,681) and they concede 34.2 boards per game as a team. They are giving up 33.0% on 3-point attempts while they are 160th in college in PPG allowed (73.1).

When they last played, the Missouri State Bears walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 86-81 when they faced Sam Houston State. The Bears snagged 17 defensive boards and 8 offensive boards totaling 25 in this matchup. They also turned it over 8 times, while earning 5 steals in the matchup. Sam Houston State committed 16 personal fouls for the game which got the Bears to the free throw line for a total of 21 shots. They were able to make 15 of those for a percentage of 71.4%. Pertaining to shots from beyond the arc, Missouri State buried 6 out of their 21 attempts (28.6%). Overall, the Bears ended up going 30 out of 62 from the field which gave them a percentage of 48.4%. The Bears allowed Sam Houston State to bury 29 of their 58 tries from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 50.0% in this game. They went 46.2% from distance by going 6 out of 13 and finished the game at 22 of 28 from the charity stripe (78.6%). Regarding rebounds, Missouri State allowed Sam Houston State to get 31 overall (7 on the offensive glass).

Michael Osei-Bonsu was important for the Bears for the game. He totaled 24 points in his 27 mins of playing time and added 1 assist for the game. He knocked down 10 of 15 in the game giving him a field goal percentage of 66.7%, and had 5 rebounds.

Missouri State has a win-loss mark of 13-16 for the year. As an offense, the Bears are connecting on 44.4% from the floor, which ranks them 234th in college. Missouri State has tallied 2,183 pts so far this year (75.3 per game) and they collect 35.3 rebounds per contest. They are dishing out assists 14.3 times per game (152nd in college hoops) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 11.6 times per game. The Bears commit 17.9 personal fouls per game while shooting 68.0% from the charity stripe.

The Bears are ranked 187th in college hoops in PPG allowed with 73.9. They are able to force 11.9 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 45.4% from the floor (258th in college). The Missouri State defense concedes 34.6% on 3-point attempts (202 of 583) and opponents are converting on 71.0% of their free throw attempts. They have relinquished 13.0 assists and 33.7 boards every game, which ranks them 146th and 142nd in D-1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Missouri State

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