New Mexico Lobos vs Fresno State Bulldogs Prediction, 2/21/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New Mexico Lobos vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026

Location: Save Mart Center in Fresno, CA

TV: ESPN+

The New Mexico Lobos (20-6) are hitting the road to Save Mart Center on Saturday where they will go up against the Fresno State Bulldogs (12-14).

The New Mexico Lobos faced Air Force and walked away with a win by a score of 98-61 in their last game. New Mexico wrapped up the game with a 54.8% field goal percentage (34 of 62) and made 15 of 31 three-point attempts. At the charity stripe, the Lobos converted 15 of 24 tries for a rate of 62.5%. In terms of pulling down boards, they compiled 46 with 14 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 22 assists for the game as well as forcing the other team into 9 turnovers and getting 7 steals. In terms of the defense, New Mexico allowed the other team to go 37.5% from the field on 21 out of 56 shooting. Air Force dished out 12 assists and had 7 steals in this game. Additionally, Air Force collected 21 rebounds (3 offensive, 18 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. Air Force finished 63.2% at the charity stripe by knocking down 12 of their 19 shots. They also converted 7 of their 31 attempts from 3-point land. In reference to fouls, the Lobos ended up with 18 and Air Force racked up 16 fouls.

Antonio Chol is someone who came through for this contest. He ended up shooting 53.8% from the floor and distributed 1 assist. He played for 27 minutes and totaled 5 rebounds. He ended up walking away with 20 points on 7 out of 13 shooting.

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New Mexico enters this one with a win-loss mark of 20-6 for the season. They currently have an average of 81.5 points per game (69th in the nation) while connecting on 46.3% from the floor. The Lobos are hitting 36.6% on shots from distance (253 of 692) and 74.4% from the charity stripe. As a unit, New Mexico is snagging 36.6 rebounds per game and has totaled 392 dimes for the season, which is 134th in college in terms of passing. They are turning it over 10.9 times per game and as a team they commit 17.5 personal fouls every game.

When they are on the defensive end, the Lobos are forcing their opponents into 14.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 19.0 personal fouls. They currently rank 68th in the nation in giving up assists to their opponents with 313 surrendered for the campaign. The Lobos defense is allowing a FG percentage of 40.7% (611 of 1,500) and they concede 34.2 rebounds per game as a group. They are conceding 29.2% from 3-point land and they rank 67th in D-1 in opponents points per game (69.2).

For their last game, the Fresno State Bulldogs went home defeated by a final of 92-82 when they faced Wyoming. The Bulldogs collected 17 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards for a total of 26 in this matchup. They gave up possession 8 times, while earning 6 steals for the matchup. Wyoming had 22 fouls in the matchup which took the Bulldogs to the charity stripe for a total of 24 shots. They were able to make 17 of those for a clip of 70.8%. Concerning shots from downtown, Fresno State converted 7 of their 15 attempts (46.7%). Overall, the Bulldogs shot 29 for 56 from the field which had them shooting 51.8%. The Bulldogs allowed Wyoming to make 34 of 63 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 54.0% for the matchup. They finished shooting 45.5% from 3-point land by shooting 15 out of 33 and ended up shooting 9 of 11 at the free throw line (81.8%). In reference to cleaning up the glass, Fresno State permitted Wyoming to snag 32 in total (12 offensive).

Wilson Jacques ended up being a major contributor for the Bulldogs for the game. He recorded 19 points in his 29 minutes on the court, but left the arena with no assists. He buried 7 out of 11 for the game giving him a field goal percentage of 63.6%, and added 12 rebounds.

Fresno State has a record of 12-14 so far this season. When it comes to offensive execution, the Bulldogs are connecting on 44.6% from the floor, which ranks them 219th in the nation. Fresno State has earned 1,925 pts for the season (74.0 per contest) and they grab 34.8 rebounds per game. Their rate of earning assists is at 13.3 times per game (236th in the nation) and they turn the ball over 13.1 times per contest. The Bulldogs commit 17.0 personal fouls per contest and they go 74.4% from the charity stripe.

The Bulldogs on the defensive side of the court are 140th in Division 1 in points per game surrendered with 72.6. They are able to force 13.6 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 44.1% from the field (185th in Division 1). The Fresno State defense allows 29.7% on shots from 3-point land (202 of 679) and their opposition knocks down 72.5% of their free throw attempts. They have surrendered 13.4 assists and 34.7 rebounds every game, which ranks them 182nd and 203rd in the country.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New Mexico

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