New Mexico State Aggies vs MTSU Blue Raiders Prediction, 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New Mexico State Aggies vs MTSU Blue Raiders

Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Location: Murphy Center in Murfreesboro, TN

TV: ESPN+

The New Mexico State Aggies (13-14) are headed to Murphy Center on Saturday where they will try to defeat the MTSU Blue Raiders (14-14).

The New Mexico State Aggies played Western Kentucky and took a loss by a score of 93-70 in their last game. New Mexico State walked away from the contest having earned a 32.8% field goal percentage (20 out of 61) and converted 5 out of their 30 3-pointers. At the free throw line, the Aggies converted 25 of their 34 shots for a rate of 73.5%. Concerning rebounding, they collected a total of 40 with 11 of them being of the offensive variety. They also doled out 13 dimes in this game in addition to forcing the other team into 9 turnovers and earning 4 steals. When it comes to the defense, New Mexico State allowed their opponent to shoot 50.8% from the field on 30 out of 59 shooting. Western Kentucky distributed 20 assists and had 9 steals for the matchup. In addition, Western Kentucky had 37 rebounds (4 offensive, 33 defensive), but didn't notch a rejection. Western Kentucky walked away from this one shooting 71.0% at the free throw line by burying 22 of 31 attempts. They made 11 out of their 25 tries from distance. Regarding fouls, the Aggies finished with 21 and Western Kentucky had 23 fouls.

Julius Mims is a player who was a major contributor in this matchup. He recorded 13 points on 4 of 8 shooting. He played for 27 mins and pulled down 10 boards. He went 50.0% from the field and also dished out 1 assist.

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New Mexico State comes into this one with a record of 13-14 on the season. They turn it over 10.6 times per game and as a team they commit 19.6 fouls every game. As a team, New Mexico State is pulling in 37.7 boards per game and has accounted for 367 assists so far this season, which has them ranked 265th in Division 1 in terms of passing. The Aggies are shooting 33.3% on shots from 3-point land (214 of 643) and 73.1% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 75.3 points per game (201st in Division 1) while hitting 43.2% from the field.

Defensively, the Aggies are forcing 11.1 turnovers every game while drawing 16.8 personal fouls. They are ranked 17th in college in allowing assists to the opposition with 305 relinquished this season. The Aggies defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 41.1% (624 of 1,520) and they concede 34.7 rebounds per contest as a squad. They are conceding 31.4% from 3-point land and they rank 113th in college hoops in PPG allowed (71.6).

For their last game, the MTSU Blue Raiders got the win with a final of 77-67 when they played UTEP. The Blue Raiders snagged 22 defensive boards and 11 offensive boards for a total of 33 for this contest. They coughed up the ball 13 times, while getting 6 steals in this contest. UTEP was called for 21 fouls for this contest which took the Blue Raiders to the charity stripe for 22 attempts. They were able to make 17 of the free throws for a rate of 77.3%. With regard to shots from beyond the arc, MTSU made 8 of their 24 tries (33.3%). Overall, the Blue Raiders ended up going 26 out of 58 from the floor which gave them a rate of 44.8%. The Blue Raiders permitted UTEP to make 23 of their 47 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 48.9% in the game. They finished shooting 45.0% from distance by hitting 9 of 20 and walked away from this one shooting 12 of 17 at the charity stripe (70.6%). In the matter of how they cleaned up the glass, MTSU allowed UTEP to grab 22 in total (3 offensive).

Kamari Lands ended up being a factor for the Blue Raiders for the matchup. He made 7 out of 14 in the matchup giving him a rate of 50.0%, but wasn't able to grab a board. He accumulated 22 points in his 27 minutes on the hardwood and tallied 1 assist in the matchup.

MTSU has a record of 14-14 for the year. The Blue Raiders commit 17.2 fouls every game and they shoot 69.2% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 14.4 times per game (150th in the nation) and they are turning it over 11.1 times per game. MTSU has tallied 2,111 points on the year (75.4 per game) and they grab 36.4 boards per contest. As an offensive team, the Blue Raiders are connecting on 44.4% from the floor, which has them ranked 235th in the country.

The MTSU defense surrenders 33.2% on three-point shots (190 of 572) and their opponents are making 74.1% of their shots from the free throw line. They relinquish 11.9 assists and 34.2 total boards per game, which ranks them 61st and 174th in college hoops. The Blue Raiders on the defensive end are ranked 145th in D-1 in points given up per game with 72.6. They are forcing 11.2 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 44.1% from the field (179th in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take MTSU

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