North Carolina Tar Heels vs California Golden Bears Prediction, 1/17/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs California Golden Bears

Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026

Location: Haas Pavilion in Berkeley, CA

TV: ACC Network

The California Golden Bears (13-5) will take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (14-3) at Haas Pavilion on Saturday.

The North Carolina Tar Heels stepped onto the hardwood against Stanford and took a loss by a score of 95-90 in their last game. North Carolina ended the game with a 58.2% FG percentage (32 out of 55) and buried 6 out of their 16 3-pointers. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Tar Heels made 20 of their 32 attempts for a percentage of 62.5%. In the matter of grabbing rebounds, they compiled 29 with 7 of them being offensive. They also distributed 7 assists in the matchup while forcing the opposition into 8 turnovers and earning 4 steals. Concerning defense, North Carolina allowed the other team to shoot 57.1% from the field on 32 of 56 shooting. Stanford dished out 20 assists and had 6 steals in this game. Furthermore, Stanford grabbed 22 rebounds (2 offensive, 20 defensive), but didn't notch a block. Stanford went 65.2% from the free throw line by burying 15 of 23 shots. They made 16 of their 28 attempts from beyond the arc. When it comes to personal fouls, the Tar Heels ended up with 17 and Stanford racked up 20 personal fouls.

Henri Veesaar is one player who was a major factor for the matchup. He was able to score 25 points on 9 of 10 shooting. He was on the court for 34 minutes and collected 9 rebounds. He went 90.0% from the field and also recorded 4 assists.

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North Carolina enters this matchup with a mark of 14-3 on the year. They are losing possession via turnover 10.2 times per contest and as a squad they commit 14.8 personal fouls per game. As a unit, North Carolina is pulling in 40.9 rebounds per game and has accounted for 290 dimes for the campaign, which is 62nd in D-1 in terms of passing. The Tar Heels are connecting on 33.8% on shots from downtown (144 of 426) and 67.9% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 82.2 pts per contest (86th in college) while going 48.1% from the field.

On defense, the Tar Heels are able to force 9.6 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 19.4 fouls. They rank 83rd in the nation in giving up assists to the opposition with 210 relinquished for the season. The Tar Heels defensively are giving up a shooting percentage of 39.3% (425 of 1,082) and they surrender 32.7 rebounds per game as a unit. They are giving up 32.7% on shots from beyond the perimeter and they are ranked 69th in college hoops in PPG allowed (68.7).

The last time they took the court, the California Golden Bears walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 71-56 against Duke. When talking about rebounds, California permitted Duke to grab 38 overall (11 on the offensive side). They finished 21.9% from distance by going 7 of 32 and walked away from this one shooting 8 out of 17 from the charity stripe (47.1%). The Golden Bears permitted Duke to make 28 out of their 62 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 45.2% in this contest. When the final whistle blew, the Golden Bears went 19 out of 52 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 36.5%. In regard to three-point shots, California made 5 of 23 tries (21.7%). They were able to convert 13 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 76.5%. Duke had 17 fouls for the contest which got the Golden Bears to the free throw line for 17 shots. They coughed up the ball 10 times, while recording 8 steals for the game. The Golden Bears earned 20 defensive boards and 2 offensive boards totaling 22 in the matchup.

Dai Dai Ames was important for the Golden Bears for this contest. He converted 8 of 12 for the matchup for a rate of 66.7%, but wasn't able to snag a board. He totaled 21 points in his 29 mins of playing time and tallied 2 dimes in the game.

California has a mark of 13-5 for the year. The Golden Bears are committing 18.2 fouls per contest and they hit 79.3% from the free throw line. Their rate of earning assists is at 14.4 times per game (180th in the country) and they are losing possession via turnover 9.7 times per game. California has earned 1,413 points on the year (78.5 per contest) and they grab 34.4 boards per game. When it comes to executing on offense, the Golden Bears are connecting on 45.0% from the floor, which is ranked 206th in the country.

The California defense allows 30.6% on shots from beyond the perimeter (135 of 441) and opponents are connecting on 67.6% of their free throw shots. They give up 14.2 dimes and 36.3 boards every game, which ranks 247th and 275th in college. The Golden Bears are ranked 94th in the nation in PPG given up with 70.1. They are able to force 12.3 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 41.9% from the field (92nd in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take North Carolina

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