North Carolina Tar Heels vs North Carolina State Wolfpack Prediction, 2/17/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs NC State Wolfpack

Date: Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Location: Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC

TV: ESPN+

The North Carolina Tar Heels (20-5) are hitting the road to Lenovo Center on Tuesday where they will go up against the NC State Wolfpack (18-8).

The North Carolina Tar Heels played Pittsburgh and earned the victory with a final of 79-65 in their last contest. North Carolina finished having earned a 46.7% FG percentage (28 of 60) and made 9 out of their 25 three-point shots. At the free throw line, the Tar Heels made 14 of their 17 tries for a rate of 82.4%. With respect to getting rebounds, they earned 26 with 5 of them being on the offensive end. They also distributed 18 dimes for the matchup in addition to forcing 11 turnovers and earning 5 steals. Regarding defending, North Carolina allowed the other team to shoot 47.3% from the floor on 26 of 55 shooting. Pittsburgh recorded 16 dimes and had 3 steals in this matchup. On top of that, Pittsburgh snagged 29 rebounds (6 offensive, 23 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. Pittsburgh shot 75.0% at the free throw line by converting 6 of 8 shots. They converted 7 of their 19 attempts from three-point range. When talking about fouls, the Tar Heels ended up with 9 and Pittsburgh recorded 16 fouls.

Jarin Stevenson is a guy who was a major contributor in the game. He finished the game shooting 85.7% from the floor and also earned 2 dimes. He was on the hardwood for 36 mins and pulled down 3 rebounds. He notched 19 points on 6 of 7 shooting.

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North Carolina will play this game with a record of 20-5 for the campaign. They turn it over 9.3 times per game and as a group are committing 14.4 fouls every game. As a team, North Carolina is snagging 38.8 boards per game and has racked up 421 assists on the year, which is 62nd in the nation in terms of passing. The Tar Heels are hitting 34.5% on 3-point shots (217 of 629) and 69.2% from the free throw line. They are averaging 81.8 points per outing (63rd in the country) while hitting 47.6% from the floor.

On defense, the Tar Heels are able to force 9.7 turnovers per game while drawing 18.3 fouls. They surrender 34.0% on 3-point shots and they are 91st in college hoops in points per game allowed (70.4). The Tar Heels defensively are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 41.0% (649 of 1,583) and they surrender 34.1 boards per game as a team. They rank 109th in D-1 in giving up assists with 325 relinquished this season.

The last time they took the hardwood, the NC State Wolfpack took a defeat with a final score of 77-76 when they faced Miami. The Wolfpack corralled 20 defensive rebounds and 7 offensive boards for a total of 27 in this game. They turned the ball over 10 times, while earning 6 steals for this game. Miami was called for 11 personal fouls for this game which took the Wolfpack to the charity stripe for a total of 15 attempts. They were able to convert 13 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 86.7%. In regard to shots from 3-point land, North Carolina State knocked down 9 out of 24 tries (37.5%). Overall, the Wolfpack shot 27 for 55 from the field which had them shooting 49.1%. The Wolfpack permitted Miami to convert 32 of 67 attempts from the field which left them shooting 47.8% for the matchup. They finished 17.6% from distance by shooting 3 of 17 and ended up shooting 10 out of 20 from the free throw line (50.0%). Concerning attacking the glass, North Carolina State permitted Miami to snag 37 overall (17 on the offensive side).

Matt Able ended up being a major contributor for the Wolfpack in this matchup. He made 6 of 10 for this contest for a field goal rate of 60.0%, and tallied 1 rebound. He accumulated 17 points in his 22 minutes on the court, but didn't record an assist.

North Carolina State has a mark of 18-8 on the campaign. The Wolfpack are responsible for committing 18.3 fouls every game while shooting 76.4% from the charity stripe. They are earning an assist 16.3 times per contest (53rd in college) and they cough up possession 9.7 times per contest. North Carolina State has totaled 2,209 points so far this season (85.0 per game) and they pull in 35.1 rebounds per game. As an offense, the Wolfpack are shooting 47.8% from the floor, which has them ranked 48th in Division 1.

The North Carolina State defense concedes 34.7% on shots from 3-point land (235 of 677) and their opposition makes 68.0% of their free throw attempts. They have relinquished 12.3 dimes and 35.2 total rebounds per game, which is ranked 93rd and 228th in those categories. The Wolfpack on the defensive side of the court are 204th in D-1 in PPG allowed with 74.4. They are forcing 13.5 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 43.9% from the field (179th in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take North Carolina State

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