North Carolina Tar Heels vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 1/3/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026

Location: Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX

TV: ESPN+

Moody Coliseum is the site where the SMU Mustangs (11-2) will take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (13-1) on Saturday.

The North Carolina Tar Heels stepped onto the hardwood against Florida State and took home the win by a score of 79-66 in their last contest. Regarding personal fouls, the Tar Heels ended up walking away with 14 while Florida State recorded 16 personal fouls. They converted 12 of 40 shots from downtown. Florida State ended up going 57.1% when shooting free throws by burying 8 of their 14 attempts. Additionally, Florida State snagged 32 rebounds (11 offensive, 21 defensive), but wrapped up the game with no rejections. Florida State recorded 13 assists and had 5 steals for this game. Pertaining to defending, North Carolina allowed their opponent to shoot 34.8% from the floor on 23 of 66 shooting. They also recorded 18 assists in this matchup while forcing the other team into 9 turnovers and earning 5 steals. Regarding hauling in boards, they earned 45 with 14 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the free throw line, the Tar Heels knocked down 14 of their 20 shots for a rate of 70.0%. North Carolina wrapped up the game with a 42.6% field goal percentage (29 out of 68) and knocked down 7 of 29 shots from downtown.

Caleb Wilson is one player who was important for this contest. He ended up finishing with 22 points on 9 out of 15 shooting. He saw the court for 36 mins and also snagged 16 rebounds. He ended up going 60.0% from the floor and totaled 6 assists.

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North Carolina enters this game with a win-loss record of 13-1 so far this season. They have an average of 81.2 points per outing (108th in the country) while connecting on 47.1% from the field. The Tar Heels are shooting 32.9% on shots from 3-point land (117 of 356) and 68.5% from the charity stripe. As a team, North Carolina is snagging 42.6 boards per contest and has racked up 242 dimes this season, which ranks 47th in D-1 in terms of passing. They are turning it over 9.9 times per game and as a unit they commit 14.9 personal fouls every game.

On the defensive end, the Tar Heels are forcing their opponents into 9.6 turnovers every game while drawing 19.3 personal fouls. They concede 28.2% on shots from beyond the arc while they are 17th in college in points per game allowed (63.7). The Tar Heels defensively are allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 36.1% (326 of 902) and they concede 34.1 boards per game as a squad. They are ranked 61st in college hoops in giving up assists to their opponents with 154 conceded for the year.

The last time they took the hardwood, the SMU Mustangs walked away with a victory by a final of 110-63 when they played CSU Fullerton. In the matter of rebounds, SMU permitted CSU Fullerton to collect 31 in total (11 on the offensive glass). They finished the game shooting 25.0% from three-point range by connecting on 8 of 32 and finished the contest at 15 of 22 from the charity stripe (68.2%). The Mustangs permitted CSU Fullerton to knock down 20 out of their 62 tries from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 32.3% in this matchup. When the game finished, the Mustangs ended up shooting 41 out of 77 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 53.2%. In terms of shots from beyond the arc, SMU buried 14 out of their 31 tries (45.2%). They were able to convert 14 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 73.7%. CSU Fullerton earned 13 fouls in this matchup which took the Mustangs to the free throw line for 19 shots. They turned it over 11 times, while recording 10 steals for the matchup. The Mustangs snagged 28 defensive rebounds and 13 offensive rebounds for a total of 41 for this game.

B.J. Edwards ended up being a major contributor for the Mustangs in the matchup. He buried 8 out of 10 in this game for a field goal rate of 80.0%, and had 11 rebounds. He earned 21 points in his 28 minutes on the hardwood and had 10 dimes for the contest.

SMU has a record of 11-2 this season. On the offensive side of the ball, the Mustangs are shooting 49.9% from the floor, which ranks them 28th in the nation. SMU has totaled 1,184 pts this season (91.1 per contest) and they pull down 40.2 rebounds per contest. Their rate of earning assists is at 19.0 times per game (19th in Division 1) and they are turning it over 11.6 times per game. The Mustangs commit 17.1 fouls every game and they connect on 76.7% from the charity stripe.

The Mustangs on the defensive end are ranked 259th in Division 1 in points given up per game with 76.5. They are able to force 14.8 TO's every game and allow teams to shoot 41.8% from the floor (97th in college hoops). The SMU defense allows 30.1% on shots from beyond the arc (107 of 355) and opponents are knocking down 71.9% of their shots from the charity stripe. They surrender 15.5 dimes and 35.2 total boards per game, which ranks them 301st and 224th in those categories on the defensive end.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take SMU

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