North Dakota State Bison vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, 3/19/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Dakota State Bison vs Michigan State Spartans

Date: Thursday, March 19, 2026

Location: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: North Dakota State (+16)

The North Dakota State Bison (27-7) are traveling to KeyBank Center on Thursday where they will meet the Michigan State Spartans (25-7) in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. North Dakota State opens as 16-point dogs. The over/under is 143.5.

The North Dakota State Bison stepped onto the hardwood against North Dakota and earned the victory with a final of 70-62 in their last contest. In reference to personal fouls, the Bison finished with 14 while North Dakota had 18 personal fouls. They also converted 8 out of their 26 tries from 3-point range. North Dakota finished 82.4% at the free throw line by making 14 of 17 attempts. On top of that, North Dakota collected 31 rebounds (6 offensive, 25 defensive), but wasn't able to put a block in the stat sheet. North Dakota distributed 11 assists and had 8 steals in this matchup. In terms of the defense, North Dakota State allowed 36.4% from the field on 20 out of 55 shooting. They also recorded 12 dimes in the matchup in addition to forcing the other team into 7 turnovers and having 4 steals. In reference to pulling down rebounds, they compiled a total of 38 with 10 of them being of the offensive sort. From the free throw line, the Bison converted 10 of their 19 tries for a rate of 52.6%. North Dakota State wrapped up the game having earned a 44.6% field goal percentage (25 of 56) and knocked down 10 of their 23 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Damari Wheeler-Thomas is one player who was a contributor in the matchup. He shot 50.0% from the floor and totaled 1 assist. He played for 31 mins played and grabbed 6 boards. He was able to score 19 points on 8 out of 16 shooting.

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North Dakota State comes into this game with a mark of 27-7 for the year. They turn it over 10.8 times per game and as a group they commit 14.7 fouls per contest. As a team, North Dakota State is snagging 36.4 boards per contest and has 528 dimes for the campaign, which has them ranked 64th in the country in terms of passing. The Bison are connecting on 36.5% on 3-point shots (320 of 876) and 72.5% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 80.7 pts per game (70th in Division 1) while hitting 46.8% from the field.

When they are on the defensive end, the Bison are forcing 13.7 turnovers per game and they draw 16.0 personal fouls. They are giving up 33.5% from beyond the arc while they are 66th in college hoops in points per game from their opponents (69.6). The Bison defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 43.8% (842 of 1,924) and they concede 31.6 rebounds per game as a team. They currently rank 239th in the nation in giving up assists to the opposition with 456 surrendered for the season.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Michigan State Spartans walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 88-84 when they faced UCLA. Regarding team rebounding, Michigan State allowed UCLA to get 26 overall (6 on the offensive side). They finished 48.1% from distance by hitting 13 of 27 and finished the game at 15 of 19 from the free throw line (78.9%). The Spartans allowed UCLA to convert 30 out of their 54 tries from the field which gave them a rate of 55.6% for this game. At the conclusion of this game, the Spartans ended up shooting 28 out of 62 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 45.2%. Pertaining to shots from distance, Michigan State made 11 out of their 23 attempts (47.8%). They were able to make 17 of those for a rate of 77.3%. UCLA had 21 fouls in the matchup which took the Spartans to the free throw line for a total of 22 attempts. They also turned the ball over 12 times, while earning 3 steals in the game. The Spartans were able to snag 18 defensive boards and 14 offensive rebounds totaling 32 for the matchup.

Jeremy Fears Jr. ended up having an impact for the Spartans in the game. He buried 7 out of 14 for the matchup for a field goal rate of 50.0%, and had 1 rebound. He racked up 21 points in his 36 mins on the hardwood and had 13 assists in this contest.

Michigan State has a mark of 25-7 on the year. On the offensive side of the ball, the Spartans are shooting 47.1% from the floor, which ranks 66th in Division 1. Michigan State has earned 2,526 points this season (78.9 per game) and they grab 39.8 boards per game. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 18.5 times per game (6th in the country) and they are turning it over 11.5 times per game. The Spartans commit 16.3 fouls per contest and they shoot 76.3% from the free throw line.

The Spartans on defense are ranked 43rd in college hoops in points per game surrendered with 68.4. They are forcing their opponents into 9.9 turnovers on a nightly basis and allow teams to shoot 41.0% from the field (36th in Division 1). The Michigan State defense concedes 32.9% on shots from distance (275 of 836) and their opponents are making 75.1% of their shots from the free throw line. They surrender 13.2 dimes and 28.3 boards per contest, ranking them 166th and 1st in Division 1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take North Dakota State (+16)

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