Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, 1/21/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Location: Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC

TV: ESPN2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-8) are headed to Dean E. Smith Center on Wednesday where they will compete against the North Carolina Tar Heels (14-4).

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish faced Virginia Tech and took a loss by a final of 89-76 in their last contest. When talking about fouls, the Fighting Irish ended up finishing with 20 and Virginia Tech accumulated 17 fouls. They buried 7 out of their 20 attempts from 3-point range. Virginia Tech ended up going 87.5% from the free throw line by converting 28 of 32 attempts. Additionally, Virginia Tech collected 29 boards (8 offensive, 21 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. Virginia Tech recorded 12 dimes and had 6 steals for the contest. In terms of defending, Notre Dame let their opponent shoot 50.9% from the field on 27 out of 53 shooting. They also doled out 11 assists for the contest in addition to forcing the other team into 12 turnovers and earning 5 steals. With regard to hauling in boards, they compiled 26 with 10 of them being on the offensive end. From the free throw line, the Fighting Irish buried 16 of 21 attempts for a rate of 76.2%. Notre Dame wrapped up the game with a 44.3% FG percentage (27 of 61) and converted 6 of 24 3-point shots.

Brady Koehler is one guy who played a role for this game. He ended up going 71.4% from the floor and also dished out 1 assist. He was on the court for 22 minutes and snagged 3 rebounds. He racked up 17 points on 5 out of 7 shooting.

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Notre Dame comes into this game with a mark of 10-8 on the season. They lose possession by turning the ball over 12.2 times per game and as a team are committing 17.4 fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Notre Dame is pulling down 37.6 boards per game and has tallied 215 dimes for the campaign, which has them ranked 333rd in D-1 in terms of passing. The Fighting Irish are shooting 36.2% on three-point attempts (154 of 426) and 69.7% from the free throw line. They average 73.4 pts per contest (260th in the country) while going 45.5% from the field.

On defense, the Fighting Irish are forcing their opponents into 9.6 turnovers per game and they draw 17.3 personal fouls. They are ranked 67th in college in giving up assists to the opposition with 216 relinquished so far this year. The Fighting Irish defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 41.9% (425 of 1,015) and they surrender 30.9 rebounds per game as a team. They are giving up 31.0% on 3-point shots and they are 73rd in college hoops in points per game allowed (69.3).

For their last game, the North Carolina Tar Heels took a defeat with a final score of 84-78 when they played California. The Tar Heels pulled down 23 defensive boards and 6 offensive rebounds for a total of 29 for this contest. They also coughed up the ball 11 times, while getting 10 steals in the game. California committed 20 fouls in this contest which took the Tar Heels to the charity stripe for a total of 28 shots. They were able to knock down 17 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 60.7%. When discussing three-point shots, North Carolina converted 9 out of their 27 attempts (33.3%). When the final whistle blew, the Tar Heels shot 26 for 56 from the floor which had them shooting 46.4%. The Tar Heels allowed California to make 29 out of their 58 tries from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 50.0% in the matchup. They wrapped up this game 53.8% from beyond the arc by going 14 of 26 and finished the contest at 12 of 16 at the free throw line (75.0%). Regarding how they cleaned up the glass, North Carolina allowed California to snag 29 overall (4 offensive).

Caleb Wilson was important for the Tar Heels in the matchup. He buried 6 of 12 for this game for a rate of 50.0%, and had 5 rebounds. He tallied 17 points in his 34 minutes of playing time and tallied 4 dimes in this contest.

North Carolina has a mark of 14-4 on the season. When it comes to executing on offense, the Tar Heels are shooting 48.0% from the floor, which is ranked 58th in college hoops. North Carolina has tallied 1,475 points on the campaign (81.9 per game) and they average 40.5 boards per game. They are earning an assist 17.0 times per game (49th in the nation) and they lose possession via turnover 10.3 times per contest. The Tar Heels commit 14.8 fouls per game and they shoot 67.4% from the charity stripe.

The North Carolina defense allows 33.9% on three-point shots (150 of 442) and opponents are connecting on 70.0% of their free throw shots. They relinquish 12.8 dimes and 32.8 rebounds per game, which is ranked 131st and 85th in college hoops. The Tar Heels are ranked 80th in D-1 in PPG surrendered with 69.6. They are forcing 9.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 39.8% from the field (31st in college hoops).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Notre Dame

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