Pepperdine Waves vs St. Mary's Gaels Prediction, 2/11/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pepperdine Waves vs St. Mary's Gaels

Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Location: University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, CA

TV: ESPN+

University Credit Union Pavilion is the site where the St. Mary's Gaels (21-4) will try to beat the Pepperdine Waves (6-19) on Wednesday.

The Pepperdine Waves faced Pacific and took a loss by a score of 92-59 in their last contest. In the matter of fouls, the Waves ended up finishing with 13 while Pacific racked up 19 fouls. They made 14 of their 23 attempts from distance. Pacific finished shooting 80.0% at the charity stripe by making 12 of their 15 attempts. Moreover, Pacific snagged 43 boards (8 offensive, 35 defensive), but didn't have a block. Pacific earned 21 assists and had 8 steals for the contest. Concerning the defense, Pepperdine allowed the other team to shoot 53.2% from the field on 33 of 62 shooting. They also dished out 8 dimes in the game while forcing the other team into 9 turnovers and having 3 steals. Pertaining to hauling in rebounds, they earned 26 with 4 of them being offensive. At the free throw line, the Waves made 12 of their 21 attempts for a percentage of 57.1%. Pepperdine wrapped up the contest with a 35.7% field goal percentage (20 of 56) and knocked down 7 of 19 three-point attempts.

Aaron Clark is someone who had an impact for the game. He finished shooting 38.5% from the field and dished out 2 dimes. He was on the court for 29 minutes but didn't pull down any rebounds. He notched 17 points on 5 out of 13 shooting.

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Pepperdine comes into this game with a win-loss mark of 6-19 so far this season. They average 70.3 pts per contest (311th in Division 1) while going 42.3% from the field. The Waves are hitting 29.7% from downtown (166 of 559) and 76.1% from the free throw line. As a unit, Pepperdine is grabbing 33.4 rebounds per game and has 331 dimes on the season, which ranks 223rd in the nation in terms of passing the ball. They are giving up possession 13.2 times per contest and as a unit they are committing 15.0 fouls on a nightly basis.

On defense, the Waves are forcing 11.6 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 18.4 fouls. They concede 34.9% on three-point shots and they rank 296th in college hoops in PPG allowed (78.2). The Waves defense is allowing a FG percentage of 46.2% (709 of 1,533) and they concede 35.5 rebounds per game as a group. They are currently ranked 317th in college in giving up assists to the opposition with 377 relinquished so far this year.

When they last played, the St. Mary's Gaels walked away with a victory by a final of 79-54 when they faced San Francisco. The Gaels were able to collect 33 defensive rebounds and 10 offensive boards for a total of 43 for this contest. They gave up possession of the ball 5 times, while getting 4 steals for this contest. San Francisco committed 13 fouls in the game which got the Gaels to the charity stripe for 8 attempts. They were able to convert 6 of the free throws for a clip of 75.0%. Pertaining to shots from beyond the perimeter, St. Mary's made 9 out of 20 attempts (45.0%). When the game finished, the Gaels went 32 out of 67 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 47.8%. The Gaels permitted San Francisco to make 16 of 57 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 28.1% in this matchup. They shot 23.3% from downtown via 7 of 30 and ended up going 15 out of 16 at the free throw line (93.8%). Regarding how they cleaned up the glass, St. Mary's permitted San Francisco to collect 27 in total (5 offensive).

Paulius Murauskas was important for the Gaels in this game. He recorded 20 points in his 36 minutes on the court and had 4 assists in this contest. He knocked down 9 out of 18 for the contest for a rate of 50.0%, and had 8 rebounds.

St. Mary's has a mark of 21-4 for the campaign. The Gaels commit 15.8 personal fouls per contest and they shoot 81.4% from the charity stripe. They are dishing out assists 15.5 times per game (96th in D-1) and they lose possession via turnover 10.9 times per game. St. Mary's has scored 1,960 pts for the campaign (78.4 per game) and they pull in 39.8 boards per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Gaels are shooting 46.4% from the field, which ranks them 118th in the nation.

The St. Mary's defense concedes 29.9% on shots from distance (159 of 532) and their opposition knocks down 72.8% of their free throw shots. They have given up 12.8 assists and 29.0 rebounds per contest, which ranks 129th and 6th in college hoops. The Gaels on defense are ranked 12th in D-1 in points per game surrendered with 64.2. They are able to force 10.3 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 40.2% from the floor (28th in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take St. Mary's

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