Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Liberty Flames Prediction, 3/7/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Liberty Flames

Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026

Location: Liberty Arena in Lynchburg, VA

TV: ESPN+

The Sam Houston State Bearkats (21-8) are headed to Liberty Arena on Saturday where they will attempt to beat the Liberty Flames (24-5).

The Sam Houston State Bearkats played Missouri State and went home with a win by a final score of 86-81 in their last contest. Sam Houston State finished the game with a 50.0% field goal percentage (29 out of 58) and made 6 out of their 13 shots from 3-point land. From the charity stripe, the Bearkats buried 22 of 28 shots for a percentage of 78.6%. In terms of rebounding, they earned 31 with 7 of them being of the offensive variety. They also doled out 11 assists in the matchup in addition to forcing the other team into 8 turnovers and having 4 steals. In reference to the defense, Sam Houston State allowed 48.4% from the field on 30 of 62 shooting. Missouri State totaled 17 dimes and had 5 steals for the contest. In addition, Missouri State collected 25 rebounds (8 offensive, 17 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. Missouri State finished 71.4% from the charity stripe by knocking down 15 of 21 attempts. They also buried 6 out of their 21 shots from distance. With respect to personal fouls, the Bearkats ended up finishing with 16 while Missouri State recorded 18 personal fouls.

Jacob Walker is one guy who played a role for this game. He finished the game at 61.5% from the field and also totaled 1 assist. He played 38 mins and collected 2 rebounds. He finished with 23 points on 8 of 13 shooting.

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Sam Houston State will enter this contest with a mark of 21-8 this season. They are averaging 83.4 points per game (37th in Division 1) while connecting on 47.2% from the field. The Bearkats are connecting on 37.2% on shots beyond the perimeter (247 of 664) and 73.5% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Sam Houston State is grabbing 40.7 boards per contest and has accounted for 452 dimes so far this season, which has them ranked 111th in Division 1 in terms of passing the rock. They lose possession by turning the ball over 11.9 times per contest and as a unit are committing 17.7 fouls on a nightly basis.

Defensively, the Bearkats are forcing their opponents into 11.6 turnovers per game and they draw 17.1 personal fouls. They are conceding 30.2% on shots from beyond the perimeter and they are 189th in the country in points per game allowed (74.0). The Bearkats are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 41.8% (741 of 1,772) and they surrender 33.9 boards per contest as a team. They are ranked 88th in D-1 in giving up assists to their opponents with 369 surrendered so far this season.

In their last game, the Liberty Flames went home victorious with a score of 81-78 against Jacksonville State. Concerning how they attacked the glass, Liberty permitted Jacksonville State to collect 26 in total (4 on the offensive side). They wrapped up this game 44.4% from beyond the arc by shooting 8 out of 18 and finished the contest at 14 out of 20 at the charity stripe (70.0%). The Flames allowed Jacksonville State to convert 28 of 55 tries from the floor which had them at 50.9% in this matchup. Overall, the Flames went 28 out of 50 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 56.0%. In reference to shooting from distance, Liberty buried 11 out of 25 attempts (44.0%). They were able to convert 14 of the free throws for a rate of 77.8%. Jacksonville State earned 16 personal fouls in the matchup which got the Flames to the free throw line for a total of 18 attempts. They turned it over 8 times, while getting 3 steals for this game. The Flames snagged 20 defensive rebounds and 1 offensive boards totaling 21 in the matchup.

Kaden Metheny was important for the Flames for this game. He buried 8 of 13 in this game for a rate of 61.5%, and had 2 rebounds. He accumulated 24 points in his 38 mins of playing time and accumulated 4 dimes in this contest.

Liberty has a mark of 24-5 on the year. When it comes to offensive execution, the Flames are connecting on 52.1% from the field, which is ranked 3rd in the country. Liberty has earned 2,282 pts on the year (78.7 per game) and they grab 29.1 rebounds per game. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 17.1 times per game (32nd in the country) and they are losing possession via turnover 9.0 times per game. The Flames have committed 14.0 personal fouls per game and they hit 70.3% from the charity stripe.

The Liberty defense surrenders 37.4% on 3-point shots (235 of 629) and opponents are making 72.3% of their foul shots. They concede 11.9 dimes and 33.1 total rebounds per game, which ranks them 63rd and 97th in those categories on the defensive end. The Flames on defense are ranked 74th in Division 1 in points given up per game with 69.9. They are able to force 11.5 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 44.6% from the field (210th in college hoops).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Liberty

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