SMU Mustangs vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, 3/7/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: SMU Mustangs vs Florida State Seminoles

Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026

Location: Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL

TV: ACC Network

Tucker Center is the location where the Florida State Seminoles (16-14) will take on the SMU Mustangs (19-11) on Saturday.

The SMU Mustangs played Miami and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 77-69 in their last contest. SMU wrapped up the game having earned a 41.3% FG percentage (26 out of 63) and made 8 of their 24 three-point attempts. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Mustangs made 9 of their 11 tries for a rate of 81.8%. In the matter of grabbing rebounds, they earned 31 with 11 of them being of the offensive variety. They also doled out 12 assists for this game as well as forcing the other team into 15 turnovers and earning 10 steals. With regard to the defense, SMU allowed the other team to shoot 47.4% from the field on 27 of 57 shooting. Miami recorded 20 assists and had 7 steals for the game. Moreover, Miami grabbed 34 rebounds (10 offensive, 24 defensive), but wasn't able to put a block in the stat sheet. Miami shot 66.7% from the charity stripe by burying 12 of 18 attempts. They made 11 of 18 tries from 3-point range. In the matter of fouls, the Mustangs ended up finishing with 13 and Miami totaled 7 fouls.

Jaron Pierre Jr. is a player who had an impact in the matchup. He shot 50.0% from the field and dished out 2 assists. He saw the court for 40 mins played and also pulled down 4 rebounds. He ended up with 27 points on 9 of 18 shooting.

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SMU will play this game with a record of 19-11 on the season. They average 85.2 pts per contest (20th in college) while connecting on 49.5% from the field. The Mustangs are connecting on 37.8% on shots beyond the perimeter (247 of 654) and 74.6% from the charity stripe. As a team, SMU is snagging 37.6 boards per contest and has totaled 518 dimes on the campaign, which ranks 28th in D-1 in terms of passing. They are turning it over 11.3 times per game and as a squad are committing 17.0 personal fouls every game.

On the defensive end of the court, the Mustangs are able to force 12.4 turnovers per game while drawing 17.5 fouls. They are giving up 33.9% on 3-point shots and they are ranked 296th in college in PPG allowed (78.0). The Mustangs defensively are allowing a field goal percentage of 43.3% (805 of 1,861) and they surrender 34.4 boards per game as a squad. They rank 337th in the nation in allowing assists with 493 conceded so far this season.

The last time they took the court, the Florida State Seminoles got the victory with a final of 75-74 when they played Pittsburgh. The Seminoles corralled 25 defensive boards and 9 offensive boards totaling 34 in this game. They turned it over 11 times, while getting 5 steals in the matchup. Pittsburgh committed 13 fouls for the game which got the Seminoles to the free throw line for 13 tries. They were able to knock down 8 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 61.5%. Regarding shots from distance, Florida State made 11 of 27 attempts (40.7%). Overall, the Seminoles ended up going 28 out of 58 from the field which had them at 48.3%. The Seminoles allowed Pittsburgh to make 26 of 63 tries from the floor which had them sitting at 41.3% in this contest. They finished the game shooting 33.3% from beyond the perimeter by shooting 9 out of 27 and walked away from this one shooting 13 of 17 from the free throw line (76.5%). Concerning cleaning the glass, Florida State allowed Pittsburgh to get 34 overall (13 on the offensive glass).

Chauncey Wiggins ended up being a major contributor for the Seminoles in this matchup. He totaled 18 points in his 31 mins on the court, but wasn't able to notch an assist. He converted 7 out of 10 in the matchup for a field goal percentage of 70.0%, and tallied 5 rebounds.

Florida State has a mark of 16-14 so far this season. On the offensive side of the ball, the Seminoles are connecting on 43.0% from the field, which is 303rd in the country. Florida State has 2,387 pts for the season (79.6 per game) and they pull down 36.2 rebounds per contest. They are earning an assist 14.2 times per game (156th in college) and they lose possession via turnover 11.1 times per game. The Seminoles commit 18.2 fouls every game while shooting 72.0% from the charity stripe.

The Seminoles defensively are ranked 282nd in the nation in points per game surrendered with 77.5. They are able to force 13.6 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 44.4% from the floor (195th in the nation). The Florida State defense surrenders 34.5% on shots from behind the 3-point line (280 of 812) and their opposition knocks down 71.8% of their shots from the free throw line. They give up 15.3 dimes and 38.0 rebounds every game, which has them ranked 305th and 344th in college.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Florida State

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