South Florida Bulls vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, 3/19/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: USF Bulls vs Louisville Cardinals

Date: Thursday, March 19, 2026

Location: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: South Florida (+5)

The USF Bulls (25-8) are en route to KeyBank Center on Thursday where they will play the Louisville Cardinals (23-10) in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. South Florida opens as 5-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total has been set at 164.5.

The USF Bulls took the court against Wichita State and went home with a win by a final score of 70-55 in their last game. When it comes to personal fouls, the Bulls walked away with 20 and Wichita State finished the game with 19 personal fouls. They knocked down 4 of their 19 attempts from 3-point land. Wichita State shot 65.0% when shooting free throws by converting 13 of 20 attempts. In addition, Wichita State had 36 rebounds (10 offensive, 26 defensive), but didn't notch a block. Wichita State recorded 8 dimes and had 7 steals in this matchup. When it comes to defense, South Florida allowed the other team to shoot 33.9% from the floor on 19 out of 56 shooting. They also recorded 13 assists for the matchup while forcing the opposition into 13 turnovers and earning 10 steals. When it comes to rebounding, they earned 33 with 11 of them being offensive. From the free throw line, the Bulls buried 18 of 23 attempts for a rate of 78.3%. South Florida walked away from the contest with a 37.7% field goal percentage (23 of 61) and buried 6 of their 22 3-point shots.

Wes Enis is one player who was a major factor in this contest. He ended up going 33.3% from the floor and dished out 1 assist. He was on the hardwood for 40 minutes and grabbed 4 boards. He scored 19 points on 7 out of 21 shooting.

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South Florida comes into this game with a record of 25-8 for the season. They have an average of 87.7 points per game (8th in the country) while going 43.9% from the field. The Bulls are connecting on 33.2% on shots from distance (318 of 958) and 74.4% from the free throw line. As a unit, South Florida is pulling in 42.7 boards per game and has accumulated 567 dimes so far this year, which is 26th in D-1 in terms of passing. They turn it over 11.2 times per contest and as a group they are committing 19.5 personal fouls every game.

On the defensive end of the court, the Bulls have forced 14.3 turnovers per contest and they draw 19.7 personal fouls. They are giving up 33.9% on 3-point shots and they rank 231st in college in opponents PPG (75.5). The Bulls defense is giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 41.3% (839 of 2,033) and they concede 37.7 boards per game as a unit. They are currently ranked 178th in college in giving up assists to the opposition with 430 conceded this season.

The last time they took the court, the Louisville Cardinals took a defeat with a final score of 78-73 when they faced Miami. The Cardinals pulled down 25 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive rebounds totaling 34 for this game. They gave up possession of the ball 12 times, while earning 5 steals for this contest. Miami earned 17 fouls for the game which got the Cardinals to the free throw line for a total of 17 tries. They were able to make 13 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 76.5%. Regarding shots from beyond the perimeter, Louisville buried 6 of their 24 tries (25.0%). When the final whistle blew, the Cardinals went 27 for 56 from the floor which gave them a rate of 48.2%. The Cardinals permitted Miami to convert 27 out of their 58 tries from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 46.6% in this contest. They finished 38.5% from downtown via 5 of 13 and finished the contest at 19 of 29 at the free throw line (65.5%). Concerning cleaning the glass, Louisville allowed Miami to get 29 overall (9 offensive).

Ryan Conwell ended up having an impact for the Cardinals for the game. He made 8 out of 20 for the game giving him a rate of 40.0%, and accounted for 9 rebounds. He earned 22 points in his 38 minutes of playing time and had 3 assists in this game.

Louisville has a win-loss mark of 23-10 on the year. The Cardinals commit 18.4 fouls every game and they connect on 76.9% from the free throw line. They are dishing out assists 17.1 times per game (25th in Division 1) and they are giving up possession 11.6 times per game. Louisville has scored 2,797 pts for the year (84.8 per game) and they grab 38.5 rebounds per game. On the offensive side of the ball, the Cardinals are hitting on 47.0% from the floor, which ranks 69th in the country.

The Louisville defense allows 32.7% from downtown (251 of 768) and opponents are knocking down 71.2% of their shots from the free throw line. They have surrendered 12.2 dimes and 33.1 boards per contest, which ranks them 81st and 99th in college hoops. The Cardinals on defense are ranked 132nd in D-1 in points per game surrendered with 72.2. They are able to force 11.8 TO's every game and allow teams to shoot 42.4% from the floor (77th in the nation).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take South Florida (+5)

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