Tarleton State Texans vs California Baptist Lancers Prediction, 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tarleton State Texans vs California Baptist Lancers

Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Location: Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center in Riverside, CA

TV: ESPN+

Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center is the location where the California Baptist Lancers (20-8) will attempt to beat the Tarleton State Texans (14-15) on Saturday.

The Tarleton State Texans faced off with Utah Valley and ended up losing by a score of 79-72 in their last game. When talking about fouls, the Texans ended up finishing with 19 and Utah Valley racked up 17 fouls. They also knocked down 4 of their 16 shots from beyond the perimeter. Utah Valley went 67.9% from the charity stripe by knocking down 19 of their 28 attempts. In addition, Utah Valley had 34 rebounds (8 offensive, 26 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. Utah Valley distributed 19 dimes and had 6 steals for this game. When discussing defense, Tarleton State allowed their opponent to shoot 50.0% from the floor on 28 of 56 shooting. They also distributed 17 assists in the matchup while forcing 9 turnovers and getting 8 steals. When discussing pulling down rebounds, they collected 38 with 15 of them being of the offensive sort. At the charity stripe, the Texans made 10 of their 16 attempts for a rate of 62.5%. Tarleton State wrapped up the game having earned a 40.9% field goal percentage (27 out of 66) and converted 8 out of their 15 3-pointers.

Dior Johnson is a player who was a contributor in this contest. He notched 23 points on 8 out of 20 shooting. He was on the court for 30 mins and also pulled down 7 boards. He finished the game shooting 40.0% from the field and also distributed 4 dimes.

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Tarleton State comes into this one with a win-loss record of 14-15 this season. They are averaging 75.2 pts per game (202nd in D-1) while connecting on 45.5% from the floor. The Texans are shooting 32.1% on shots from beyond the arc (136 of 424) and 75.1% from the free throw line. As a team, Tarleton State is grabbing 32.8 boards per contest and has racked up 331 dimes for the campaign, which has them ranked 334th in Division 1 in terms of passing the rock. They are turning it over 14.4 times per contest and as a unit are committing 19.7 personal fouls on a nightly basis.

On defense, the Texans are forcing their opponents into 18.0 turnovers every game while drawing 19.4 personal fouls. They give up 34.4% on shots from distance and they are 156th in college in points per game allowed (73.0). The Texans defense is giving up and opponent field goal percentage of 44.9% (701 of 1,560) and they concede 34.6 boards per game as a team. They currently rank 204th in college in giving up assists to the opposition with 390 surrendered on the year.

In their last game, the California Baptist Lancers walked away with a victory by a final of 68-56 against UT Arlington. Regarding how they attacked the glass, California Baptist allowed UT Arlington to get 37 in total (13 on the offensive side). They shot 16.7% from three-point range by connecting on 3 out of 18 and finished the game at 11 out of 16 at the charity stripe (68.8%). The Lancers permitted UT Arlington to make 21 out of their 60 attempts from the field which had them at 35.0% in the matchup. When all was said and done, the Lancers finished the game shooting 26 out of 57 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 45.6%. In the matter of shots from beyond the perimeter, California Baptist knocked down 8 out of 20 attempts (40.0%). They were able to make 8 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 72.7%. UT Arlington had 13 fouls in the game which took the Lancers to the free throw line for 11 shots. They also gave up possession 8 times, while recording 2 steals for the matchup. The Lancers corralled 24 defensive rebounds and 8 offensive rebounds totaling 32 in this game.

Dominique Daniels Jr. ended up being a major contributor for the Lancers in this matchup. He earned 28 points in his 39 mins on the hardwood and added 4 assists in the matchup. He knocked down 11 of 22 in the game giving him a rate of 50.0%, and tallied 3 rebounds.

California Baptist has a win-loss record of 20-8 on the campaign. The Lancers commit 18.6 personal fouls every game and they shoot 71.8% from the charity stripe. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 10.4 times per contest (362nd in college hoops) and they are losing possession via turnover 12.4 times per contest. California Baptist has earned 2,010 points for the season (71.8 per game) and they collect 40.6 boards per game. As an offensive team, the Lancers are shooting 42.3% from the floor, which is ranked 320th in Division 1.

The Lancers on the defensive side of the court are 45th in college hoops in PPG surrendered with 68.1. They are forcing their opponents into 11.1 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 41.6% from the floor (57th in college). The California Baptist defense gives up 29.7% on 3-point attempts (155 of 522) and their opponents are connecting on 72.7% of their shots from the charity stripe. They give up 11.0 dimes and 32.9 total rebounds per game, which ranks them 28th and 80th in D-1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Tarleton State

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