Tarleton State Texans vs California Baptist Lancers Prediction, 2/5/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tarleton State Texans vs California Baptist Lancers

Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026

Location: Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center in Riverside, CA

TV: ESPN+

The California Baptist Lancers (16-6) will try to defeat the Tarleton State Texans (11-11) at Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center on Thursday.

The Tarleton State Texans faced off with Utah Tech and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 65-59 in their last game. Tarleton State ended having earned a 34.4% field goal percentage (21 out of 61) and buried 3 out of their 23 shots from beyond the perimeter. From the charity stripe, the Texans converted 14 of their 17 shots for a percentage of 82.4%. With regard to getting rebounds, they earned 38 with 16 of them being offensive. They also recorded 6 dimes for the game while creating 12 turnovers and earning 7 steals. When talking about defense, Tarleton State allowed 50.0% from the field on 25 of 50 shooting. Utah Tech earned 11 assists and had 9 steals for the matchup. On top of that, Utah Tech pulled down 26 rebounds (5 offensive, 21 defensive), but wasn't able to record a rejection. Utah Tech finished the contest at 37.5% at the free throw line by converting 3 of their 8 attempts. They also buried 12 out of their 24 tries from beyond the arc. In reference to fouls, the Texans walked away with 11 while Utah Tech accounted for 13 fouls.

Camron McDowell is a guy who was important in the matchup. He ended up shooting 42.9% from the field but wasn't able to get an assist. He was on the hardwood for 30 mins played and also grabbed 5 boards. He was able to score 16 points on 6 out of 14 shooting.

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Tarleton State heads into this contest with a win-loss record of 11-11 this season. They turn it over 14.6 times per contest and as a unit they commit 20.0 fouls per contest. As a team, Tarleton State is grabbing 33.6 rebounds per game and has tallied 267 assists this year, which is 319th in college in terms of passing the ball. The Texans are shooting 32.3% on three-point shots (109 of 337) and 76.4% from the free throw line. They currently have an average of 78.0 points per contest (141st in the nation) while shooting 45.4% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Texans are able to force 18.7 turnovers per game while drawing 20.3 personal fouls. They rank 191st in the nation in giving up assists with 301 conceded on the season. The Texans are giving up an opponent FG percentage of 46.6% (543 of 1,166) and they relinquish 33.2 boards per game as a squad. They are conceding 35.3% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 200th in college in opponents PPG (74.3).

When they last stepped on the court, the California Baptist Lancers took home the win by a final score of 87-77 against UT Arlington. In the matter of rebounding, California Baptist permitted UT Arlington to pull down 41 in all (13 offensive). They shot 26.7% from distance by shooting 8 of 30 and ended up going 17 out of 21 at the free throw line (81.0%). The Lancers allowed UT Arlington to make 26 of 71 tries from the field which had them shooting 36.6% for the matchup. Overall, the Lancers finished shooting 28 for 61 from the floor which had them shooting 45.9%. When discussing 3-pointers, California Baptist converted 6 out of 20 tries (30.0%). They were able to make 25 of the free throws for a clip of 69.4%. UT Arlington committed 28 fouls for this contest which got the Lancers to the charity stripe for 36 attempts. They coughed up the ball 10 times, while getting 7 steals for the contest. The Lancers were able to corral 27 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive rebounds for a total of 36 for the matchup.

Dominique Daniels Jr. pitched in for the Lancers for the contest. He converted 8 out of 21 for the contest for a rate of 38.1%, and had 5 rebounds. He earned 28 points in his 40 minutes of playing time and earned 6 assists for this game.

California Baptist has a mark of 16-6 for the campaign. The Lancers are committing 18.9 fouls per game and they connect on 72.0% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 10.8 times per game (355th in the country) and they lose possession via turnover 12.6 times per game. California Baptist has accounted for 1,627 points for the year (74.0 per game) and they average 40.3 rebounds per contest. When it comes to offense, the Lancers are shooting 44.0% from the field, which has them ranked 258th in the nation.

The California Baptist defense gives up 30.4% on 3-point shots (129 of 425) and opponents are making 74.1% of their shots from the charity stripe. They concede 11.2 dimes and 31.9 total boards per game, which is ranked 34th and 52nd in those categories on the defensive end. The Lancers on the defensive end are ranked 73rd in college hoops in PPG allowed with 69.6. They are able to force 11.4 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 41.8% from the floor (72nd in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Tarleton State

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