TCU Horned Frogs vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, 3/21/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: TCU Horned Frogs vs Duke Blue Devils

Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026

Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, SC

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: TCU (+11)

The TCU Horned Frogs (22-11) are en route to Bon Secours Wellness Arena on Saturday where they will attempt to defeat the Duke Blue Devils (32-2) in the round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. Duke is 11-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under comes in at 140.5.

The TCU Horned Frogs played Ohio State and walked away with a win by a score of 66-64 in their last contest. TCU wrapped up the game with a 40.0% field goal percentage (24 of 60) and converted 9 out of their 23 3-point shots. From the charity stripe, the Horned Frogs converted 9 of their 14 attempts for a percentage of 64.3%. In terms of rebounding, they compiled 38 with 12 of them being of the offensive sort. They also distributed 12 assists in the matchup in addition to forcing 7 turnovers and earning 4 steals. Pertaining to defending, TCU allowed the other team to shoot 42.1% from the field on 24 of 57 shooting. Ohio State dished out 18 assists and had 4 steals in this contest. Additionally, Ohio State collected 28 boards (4 offensive, 24 defensive), but wasn't able to record a block. Ohio State ended up shooting 90.9% when shooting free throws by knocking down 10 of their 11 tries. They also converted 6 out of their 23 tries from downtown. When talking about personal fouls, the Horned Frogs finished with 13 while Ohio State racked up 10 personal fouls.

Micah Robinson is someone who was a major factor in this matchup. He notched 18 points on 6 out of 11 shooting. He played 37 mins played and also collected 5 boards. He finished shooting 54.5% from the floor but finished the game without an assist.

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TCU will enter this contest with a record of 22-11 so far this season. They are giving up possession 10.9 times per game and as a unit they commit 16.3 fouls per contest. As a team, TCU is pulling down 36.2 rebounds per contest and has tallied 516 dimes on the year, which ranks 70th in the nation in terms of passing the rock. The Horned Frogs are connecting on 33.1% on 3-pointers (244 of 737) and 70.8% from the charity stripe. They average 78.3 points per game (114th in Division 1) while shooting 44.8% from the field.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs are forcing 13.8 turnovers per contest while drawing 19.0 personal fouls. They rank 337th in college hoops in allowing assists with 522 relinquished this year. The Horned Frogs defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 44.6% (856 of 1,920) and they surrender 33.5 boards per game as a team. They surrender 33.7% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 126th in college hoops in points per game from their opponents (72.1).

When they last stepped on the court, the Duke Blue Devils went home victorious with a score of 71-65 when they played Siena. With respect to how they attacked the glass, Duke permitted Siena to snag 28 overall (9 on the offensive side). They went 34.6% from beyond the perimeter by connecting on 9 of 26 and walked away from this one shooting 6 of 6 at the free throw line (100.0%). The Blue Devils permitted Siena to make 25 of 65 tries from the field which gave them a rate of 38.5% for the contest. When the final whistle was blown, the Blue Devils shot 24 for 59 from the floor which had them at 40.7%. In regard to shots from beyond the arc, Duke made 5 of their 26 attempts (19.2%). They were able to make 18 of those for a rate of 85.7%. Siena had 16 personal fouls in the matchup which got the Blue Devils to the charity stripe for 21 shots. They also coughed up the ball 8 times, while getting 3 steals for the matchup. The Blue Devils were able to pull down 25 defensive boards and 14 offensive rebounds for a total of 39 for the matchup.

Cameron Boozer ended up being a factor for the Blue Devils for this contest. He earned 22 points in his 39 mins on the court and accumulated 3 assists for this contest. He buried 4 out of 11 for the contest giving him a rate of 36.4%, and tallied 13 rebounds.

Duke has a record of 32-2 on the campaign. The Blue Devils are committing 15.7 personal fouls every game and they connect on 72.4% from the charity stripe. They are assisting teammates 16.9 times per contest (30th in college) and they turn it over 10.5 times per contest. Duke has earned 2,798 pts so far this season (82.3 per contest) and they grab 40.3 rebounds per game. As an offensive unit, the Blue Devils are shooting 49.0% from the floor, which ranks 22nd in the country.

The Duke defense gives up 30.4% on shots from behind the 3-point line (273 of 897) and their opposition makes 71.7% of their free throw attempts. They allow 11.6 dimes and 29.4 rebounds every game, which ranks 48th and 7th in those categories on the defensive end. The Blue Devils on the defensive side of the court are 3rd in college hoops in points given up per game with 63.1. They are forcing their opponents into 12.2 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 39.2% from the field (9th in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take TCU (+11)

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