Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, 2/11/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Location: Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, MS

TV: ESPN+

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (11-12) will try to beat the Tennessee Volunteers (16-7) at Humphrey Coliseum on Wednesday.

The Tennessee Volunteers took the court against Kentucky and took a loss by a final of 74-71 in their last contest. In relation to fouls, the Volunteers ended up finishing with 20 and Kentucky racked up 21 fouls. They also buried 5 out of their 19 shots from distance. Kentucky finished the game shooting 59.1% at the free throw line by knocking down 13 of 22 shots. Moreover, Kentucky snagged 27 boards (7 offensive, 20 defensive), but wasn't able to put a block in the stat sheet. Kentucky recorded 16 assists and had 8 steals for the matchup. When discussing defending, Tennessee let their opponent shoot 50.0% from the floor on 28 out of 56 shooting. They also dished out 17 assists for the matchup while creating 9 turnovers and earning 8 steals. Pertaining to grabbing boards, they earned 45 with 19 of them being offensive. When they shot from the free throw line, the Volunteers converted 17 of 25 attempts for a rate of 68.0%. Tennessee ended the contest with a 37.1% FG percentage (23 of 62) and knocked down 8 of their 21 3-point shots.

Nate Ament is a player who was a factor in this game. He ended up going 58.8% from the floor and totaled 3 dimes. He played 35 mins played and also grabbed 8 rebounds. He ended up finishing with 29 points on 10 of 17 shooting.

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Tennessee enters this game with a mark of 16-7 for the campaign. They have an average of 81.7 points per outing (69th in college) while connecting on 47.1% from the field. The Volunteers are shooting 35.2% on shots beyond the perimeter (166 of 471) and 69.2% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Tennessee is collecting 43.1 rebounds per contest and has earned 402 assists this season, which ranks 48th in D-1 in terms of passing. They are turning it over 12.9 times per game and as a group they commit 18.4 fouls every game.

On the defensive end, the Volunteers are forcing their opponents into 11.6 turnovers per game and they draw 19.8 personal fouls. They are conceding 29.6% from 3-point land while they are 75th in college in opponents PPG (69.8). The Volunteers defense is giving up a field goal percentage of 40.4% (546 of 1,351) and they relinquish 30.0 rebounds per game as a team. They are 12th in the country in allowing assists to the opposition with 251 conceded so far this season.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Mississippi State Bulldogs took a defeat with a final score of 88-68 when they played Arkansas. The Bulldogs were able to collect 23 defensive rebounds and 7 offensive rebounds for a total of 30 for the matchup. They also coughed up the ball 10 times, while getting 3 steals for the contest. Arkansas committed 13 personal fouls for the game which took the Bulldogs to the charity stripe for a total of 14 shots. They were able to convert 9 of them for a clip of 64.3%. Pertaining to shooting from distance, Mississippi State buried 3 of their 15 tries (20.0%). Overall, the Bulldogs finished shooting 28 for 61 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 45.9%. The Bulldogs allowed Arkansas to make 36 of 69 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 52.2% for this game. They shot 36.4% from beyond the perimeter by shooting 8 of 22 and ended up going 8 of 12 from the free throw line (66.7%). In regard to how they cleaned up the glass, Mississippi State permitted Arkansas to pull down 34 in all (8 on the offensive side).

Josh Hubbard ended up being a major contributor for the Bulldogs for the matchup. He converted 7 out of 15 for this game for a field goal rate of 46.7%, but finished without a board. He tallied 16 points in his 33 minutes on the court and had 5 dimes for this game.

Mississippi State has a win-loss record of 11-12 so far this season. The Bulldogs are responsible for committing 15.8 fouls every game and they shoot 68.5% from the free throw line. They are dishing out assists 12.4 times per contest (298th in D-1) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 11.7 times per game. Mississippi State has accumulated 1,780 pts for the campaign (77.4 per game) and they snag 40.2 rebounds per contest. When it comes to offense, the Bulldogs are hitting on 44.3% from the floor, which has them ranked 242nd in the nation.

The Bulldogs are ranked 301st in college in points allowed per contest with 78.6. They are forcing 9.3 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 43.1% from the field (133rd in college hoops). The Mississippi State defense allows 30.4% on shots from beyond the arc (176 of 579) and their opponents are knocking down 73.9% of their shots from the free throw line. They surrender 13.7 dimes and 37.8 total rebounds per game, which has them ranked 207th and 332nd in D-1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Mississippi State

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