Texas Longhorns vs North Carolina State Wolfpack Prediction, 3/17/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Texas Longhorns vs NC State Wolfpack

Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Location: UD Arena in Dayton, OH

TV: truTV

Odds/Point Spread: North Carolina State (-2)

UD Arena is where the NC State Wolfpack (20-13) will try to defeat the Texas Longhorns (18-14) on Tuesday in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina State opens this matchup as 2-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under is 158.

The Texas Longhorns faced Ole Miss and took a loss by a score of 76-66 in their last contest. When it comes to fouls, the Longhorns walked away with 14 and Ole Miss totaled 17 fouls. They also knocked down 1 out of their 10 tries from 3-point land. Ole Miss finished 75.0% from the free throw line by converting 15 of their 20 attempts. In addition, Ole Miss collected 31 rebounds (6 offensive, 25 defensive), but didn't notch a block. Ole Miss dished out 9 assists and had 12 steals in the game. Concerning defending, Texas allowed their opponent to shoot 46.9% from the field on 30 of 64 shooting. They also dished out 12 assists for this game in addition to forcing the opposition into 3 turnovers and earning 1 steal. When discussing hauling in boards, they collected 35 with 8 of them being of the offensive sort. At the free throw line, the Longhorns made 21 of their 25 attempts for a percentage of 84.0%. Texas walked away from the game having earned a 35.2% FG percentage (19 out of 54) and made 7 of 20 three-point shots.

Dailyn Swain is someone who was a major contributor for this contest. He finished shooting 44.4% from the field and also dished out 4 assists. He played for 38 mins played and also totaled 12 rebounds. He recorded 22 points on 4 of 9 shooting.

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Texas heads into this matchup with a mark of 18-14 on the campaign. They turn it over 11.0 times per contest and as a unit are committing 18.8 fouls per game. As a team, Texas is collecting 37.7 boards per contest and has tallied 394 dimes so far this season, which ranks 295th in D-1 in terms of passing. The Longhorns are hitting 35.3% on three-point attempts (237 of 671) and 75.2% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 83.8 pts per contest (26th in the country) while shooting 48.6% from the field.

Defensively, the Longhorns have forced 9.4 turnovers every game and they draw 21.3 fouls. They give up 36.0% on shots from beyond the perimeter and they rank 260th in college in PPG allowed (76.8). The Longhorns defense is allowing and opponent field goal percentage of 44.9% (837 of 1,864) and they relinquish 30.3 boards per game as a team. They are 48th in the country in giving up assists with 381 conceded for the campaign.

The last time they took the court, the NC State Wolfpack took a loss by a final score of 81-74 against Virginia. The Wolfpack recorded 18 defensive rebounds and 7 offensive rebounds for a total of 25 for the contest. They also gave up possession of the ball 9 times, while earning 5 steals for the game. Virginia earned 17 personal fouls for the game which got the Wolfpack to the charity stripe for a total of 24 tries. They were able to knock down 21 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 87.5%. Regarding shots from beyond the arc, North Carolina State buried 11 out of 22 attempts (50.0%). At the conclusion of this game, the Wolfpack finished shooting 21 out of 57 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 36.8%. The Wolfpack permitted Virginia to knock down 29 of their 61 attempts from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 47.5% in the game. They shot 48.0% from three-point range by shooting 12 out of 25 and walked away from this one shooting 11 out of 14 from the charity stripe (78.6%). Concerning how they rebounded, North Carolina State permitted Virginia to get 32 in all (7 on the offensive glass).

Paul McNeil Jr. was important for the Wolfpack for the game. He buried 7 out of 15 for the contest giving him a rate of 46.7%, and accounted for 6 rebounds. He totaled 26 points in his 34 minutes on the hardwood and totaled 1 assist in this contest.

North Carolina State has a win-loss mark of 20-13 for the season. As an offense, the Wolfpack are connecting on 46.8% from the field, which has them ranked 81st in college. North Carolina State has accounted for 2,762 pts this year (83.7 per contest) and they average 34.5 rebounds per game. They are earning an assist 15.6 times per game (83rd in Division 1) and they are losing possession via turnover 9.2 times per contest. The Wolfpack are responsible for committing 18.2 personal fouls per contest and they hit 76.8% from the free throw line.

The North Carolina State defense concedes 35.6% on 3-point attempts (310 of 870) and opponents are connecting on 69.8% of their shots from the free throw line. They allow 12.9 assists and 35.5 rebounds per game, which has them ranked 142nd and 251st in the country. The Wolfpack on the defensive end are ranked 252nd in college hoops in PPG surrendered with 76.5. They have forced 12.8 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 45.0% from the field (232nd in college hoops).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take North Carolina State (-2)

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