Toledo Rockets vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, 11/5/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toledo Rockets vs Michigan State Spartans

Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026

Location: Breslin Center in East Lansing, MI

TV: Peacock

Odds/Point Spread: Toledo (+25.5)

The Toledo Rockets (19-15 last year) are traveling to Breslin Center on Thursday where they will go up against the Michigan State Spartans (27-8 last season). Michigan State is 25.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The total is set at 151.5.

The Toledo Rockets stepped onto the hardwood against Arkansas State and went home with a loss by a final score of 71-70 in their last game. Toledo finished the game having earned a 39.7% FG percentage (29 of 73) and knocked down 6 of their 27 shots from downtown. At the free throw line, the Rockets made 6 of 8 attempts for a rate of 75.0%. In reference to getting rebounds, they earned 44 with 14 of them being offensive. They also doled out 21 assists in this matchup in addition to creating 8 turnovers and having 7 steals. In reference to defense, Toledo allowed the other team to go 35.7% from the field on 25 of 70 shooting. Arkansas State distributed 15 assists and had 12 steals in the matchup. In addition, Arkansas State collected 44 boards (17 offensive, 27 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. Arkansas State finished the game at 43.5% when shooting free throws by burying 10 of 23 shots. They also knocked down 11 out of their 37 tries from beyond the arc. When it comes to personal fouls, the Rockets finished with 18 and Arkansas State had 15 personal fouls.

Angel Montas Jr. is someone who came through in this contest. He left the arena with 16 points on 7 out of 16 shooting. He saw the court for 26 mins and also collected 10 boards. He shot 43.8% from the floor and also distributed 3 assists.

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Toledo comes into this game after finishing with a record of 19-15 last season. They lost possession by turning the ball over 10.2 times per contest and as a group committed 14.8 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a squad, Toledo grabbed 34.0 boards per game and tallied 550 assists last season, which had them ranked 54th in Division 1 in terms of passing the rock. The Rockets shot 36.6% on shots from distance (246 of 673) and 75.9% from the free throw line. They averaged 81.0 points per contest (64th in college hoops) while going 48.9% from the floor.

When they were on defense, the Rockets were able to force 12.5 turnovers per contest while drawing 16.4 personal fouls. They conceded 33.9% from 3-point land while they were 256th in D-1 in points per game allowed (76.6). The Rockets gave up a shooting percentage of 46.9% (979 of 2,087) and they surrendered 34.9 rebounds per game as a unit. They were ranked 306th in D-1 in allowing assists to the opposition with 500 surrendered throughout last season.

In their last game, the Michigan State Spartans went home victorious with a score of 96-59 when they played Quinnipiac. The Spartans were able to snag 29 defensive rebounds and 14 offensive rebounds for a total of 43 for this game. They also turned it over 12 times, while recording 10 steals for this game. Quinnipiac committed 19 fouls in the matchup which got the Spartans to the free throw line for 26 attempts. They were able to bury 15 of those for a rate of 57.7%. When discussing shots from distance, Michigan State converted 9 out of 23 tries (39.1%). When the game finished, the Spartans went 36 for 62 from the floor which had them at 58.1%. The Spartans allowed Quinnipiac to make 20 out of their 56 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 35.7% in this game. They wrapped up this game 28.6% from behind the 3-point line by shooting 6 of 21 and ended up shooting 13 of 24 at the free throw line (54.2%). In reference to team rebounding, Michigan State allowed Quinnipiac to snag 23 in all (8 offensive).

Jeremy Fears Jr. pitched in for the Spartans for the contest. He converted 5 of 8 for the matchup giving him a rate of 62.5%, and tallied 1 rebound. He earned 13 points in his 26 mins of playing time and had 11 assists in this matchup.

Michigan State had a record of 27-8 last season. On the offensive side of the court, the Spartans hit 47.2% from the floor, which was ranked 60th in D-1. Michigan State totaled 2,758 pts throughout last season (78.8 per contest) and they grabbed 39.7 rebounds per game. Their rate of assisting teammates was at 18.6 times per game (4th in the nation) and they turned it over 11.6 times per game. The Spartans were responsible for committing 16.0 fouls per contest and they hit 76.4% from the free throw line.

The Michigan State defense allowed 33.0% on 3-point shots (303 of 919) and their opponents made 74.4% of their free throw attempts. They allowed 28.5 assists and 28.3 boards per contest, which had them ranked 347th and 1st in college. The Spartans on defense were ranked 41st in the country in points allowed per game with 68.3. They forced 10.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and allowed teams to shoot 41.3% from the field (39th in college hoops).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Toledo (+25.5)

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