Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction, 1/7/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves

Date: Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Location: First National Bank Arena in Jonesboro, AR

TV: ESPN+

The Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-5) will play the Troy Trojans (10-5) at First National Bank Arena on Wednesday.

The Troy Trojans played South Alabama and took home the win by a score of 59-49 in their last contest. Troy finished the game having earned a 34.4% FG percentage (21 of 61) and made 13 out of their 42 shots from beyond the arc. At the free throw line, the Trojans buried 4 of 7 attempts for a percentage of 57.1%. When it comes to grabbing rebounds, they compiled 37 with 12 of them being of the offensive sort. They also distributed 17 assists in this contest while forcing the other team into 9 turnovers and getting 8 steals. In reference to defending, Troy allowed the other team to shoot 32.0% from the field on 16 of 50 shooting. South Alabama distributed 6 dimes and had 8 steals for this contest. Additionally, South Alabama snagged 36 boards (11 offensive, 25 defensive), but didn't have a block. South Alabama shot 66.7% at the charity stripe by making 14 of 21 tries. They made 3 of 18 shots from three-point range. Concerning personal fouls, the Trojans ended up with 15 and South Alabama racked up 7 personal fouls.

Thomas Dowd is a guy who was a contributor in this matchup. He notched 18 points on 7 out of 15 shooting. He played for 37 minutes and also totaled 15 boards. He finished 46.7% from the field and also recorded 2 assists.

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Troy will play this game with a win-loss record of 10-5 for the season. They have an average of 86.5 points per contest (45th in the country) while shooting 45.4% from the floor. The Trojans are hitting 34.6% on shots beyond the perimeter (152 of 439) and 72.5% from the free throw line. As a unit, Troy is pulling in 40.2 rebounds per contest and has accounted for 251 dimes this year, which ranks 65th in the nation in terms of passing the rock. They lose possession via turnover 13.1 times per contest and as a team they commit 18.1 fouls every game.

On defense, the Trojans are forcing 15.2 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 18.1 fouls. They give up 33.6% on shots from downtown and they rank 266th in D-1 in points per game from their opponents (76.8). The Trojans defense is giving up an opponent FG percentage of 42.9% (413 of 963) and they relinquish 37.5 rebounds per contest as a team. They currently rank 260th in the country in giving up assists to the opposition with 216 conceded this year.

When they last stepped on the court, the Arkansas State Red Wolves took a defeat with a final score of 78-74 when they played James Madison. The Red Wolves were able to snag 22 defensive rebounds and 19 offensive rebounds totaling 41 in this matchup. They turned the ball over 8 times, while earning 9 steals for the contest. James Madison committed 23 personal fouls for the contest which took the Red Wolves to the free throw line for 27 tries. They were able to make 16 of those for a clip of 59.3%. In relation to 3-point attempts, Arkansas State knocked down 8 out of their 32 tries (25.0%). Overall, the Red Wolves went 25 for 70 from the field which had them shooting 35.7%. The Red Wolves permitted James Madison to knock down 27 of 51 tries from the field which gave them a rate of 52.9% for the contest. They finished shooting 47.1% from downtown by going 8 of 17 and walked away from this one shooting 16 of 26 from the free throw line (61.5%). With respect to attacking the glass, Arkansas State allowed James Madison to grab 36 in all (7 offensive).

Kyle Hayman ended up being a major contributor for the Red Wolves for the game. He made 8 out of 15 for the game giving him a rate of 53.3%, and had 5 rebounds. He scored 23 points in his 25 mins on the court and earned 1 assist for the matchup.

Arkansas State has a win-loss mark of 10-5 for the season. The Red Wolves are responsible for committing 19.2 fouls per contest and they go 77.3% from the free throw line. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 14.8 times per game (152nd in the country) and they are giving up possession 13.9 times per game. Arkansas State has earned 1,247 pts for the campaign (83.1 per contest) and they collect 39.1 rebounds per game. In terms of offensive execution, the Red Wolves are hitting on 45.5% from the field, which is ranked 183rd in college.

The Red Wolves are ranked 297th in college in PPG given up with 78.0. They are forcing their opponents into 12.6 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 45.7% from the field (295th in college). The Arkansas State defense surrenders 33.2% from downtown (108 of 325) and their opponents are making 68.0% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have surrendered 13.2 dimes and 33.7 boards per game, which is 175th and 138th in those defensive categories.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Arkansas State

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