UMass Minutemen vs Bowling Green Falcons Prediction, 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: UMass Minutemen vs Bowling Green Falcons

Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Location: Stroh Center in Bowling Green, OH

TV: ESPN+

Stroh Center is the location where the Bowling Green Falcons (16-13) will go up against the UMass Minutemen (15-14) on Saturday.

The UMass Minutemen played Ball State and took a loss by a score of 74-73 in their last game. With respect to fouls, the Minutemen ended up with 21 while Ball State finished the game with 14 fouls. They converted 6 of their 28 tries from long range. Ball State finished the game at 81.8% at the free throw line by making 18 of their 22 shots. Additionally, Ball State totaled 36 rebounds (12 offensive, 24 defensive), but wrapped up the game with no rejections. Ball State distributed 12 assists and had 6 steals for the game. When it comes to defending, UMass allowed 35.7% from the field on 25 out of 70 shooting. They also recorded 14 assists in this game while creating 8 turnovers and earning 4 steals. In relation to pulling down rebounds, they compiled a total of 45 with 14 of them being of the offensive variety. At the free throw line, the Minutemen made 13 of their 16 attempts for a rate of 81.3%. UMass walked away from the game with a 37.7% field goal percentage (26 of 69) and converted 8 of 27 three-point shots.

Isaiah Placide is one player who played a role in the game. He accumulated 19 points on 5 out of 9 shooting. He was on the court for 28 mins and also grabbed 6 boards. He ended up shooting 55.6% from the floor but finished the game without an assist.

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UMass heads into this game with a record of 15-14 this season. They average 80.6 pts per contest (75th in college) while hitting 46.9% from the floor. The Minutemen are connecting on 35.7% on 3-point shots (228 of 638) and 67.0% from the free throw line. As a unit, UMass is pulling down 37.7 boards per contest and has tallied 507 assists so far this season, which is 20th in college in terms of passing the ball. They lose possession via turnover 13.2 times per game and as a squad are committing 21.1 fouls per contest.

When they are on defense, the Minutemen are forcing their opponents into 12.7 turnovers per contest while drawing 19.2 fouls. They are giving up 32.5% from beyond the arc and they are 272nd in D-1 in PPG allowed (77.2). The Minutemen defense is giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 44.8% (737 of 1,644) and they relinquish 32.2 rebounds per game as a squad. They are 284th in the nation in giving up assists to their opponents with 426 conceded so far this season.

When they last stepped on the court, the Bowling Green Falcons walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 88-79 when they played Western Michigan. The Falcons were able to pull down 24 defensive rebounds and 6 offensive rebounds for a total of 30 for the contest. They also coughed it up 7 times, while getting 3 steals in the game. Western Michigan committed 27 personal fouls in the matchup which took the Falcons to the charity stripe for a total of 32 shots. They were able to knock down 21 of the free throw attempts for a clip of 65.6%. When discussing shooting from distance, Bowling Green converted 8 of 21 attempts (38.1%). When the game finished, the Falcons ended up going 25 out of 59 from the floor which had them shooting 42.4%. The Falcons allowed Western Michigan to convert 27 out of 56 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 48.2% in this matchup. They finished 43.8% from behind the 3-point line by going 7 of 16 and ended up shooting 27 out of 31 at the charity stripe (87.1%). With respect to rebounds, Bowling Green permitted Western Michigan to pull down 34 in total (5 offensive).

Sam Towns ended up being a factor for the Falcons for this contest. He earned 22 points in his 36 minutes on the court and had 1 assist in the game. He made 6 out of 15 in this game for a field goal percentage of 40.0%, and added 9 rebounds.

Bowling Green has a record of 16-13 this year. As an offense, the Falcons are connecting on 47.7% from the field, which ranks them 46th in college. Bowling Green has tallied 2,368 points for the campaign (81.7 per game) and they average 36.1 boards per game. They are dishing out assists 14.3 times per contest (156th in the country) and they are turning it over 11.7 times per game. The Falcons are committing 18.1 fouls every game and they shoot 73.2% from the free throw line.

The Bowling Green defense allows 34.1% on shots from 3-point land (239 of 700) and their opponents are converting on 72.3% of their shots from the charity stripe. They give up 13.1 assists and 33.5 boards per contest, which is ranked 159th and 126th in D-1. The Falcons on defense are ranked 120th in Division 1 in points given up per game with 71.8. They are forcing 15.1 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 43.3% from the floor (125th in Division 1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take UMass

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