UMass Minutemen vs Toledo Rockets Prediction, 3/13/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: UMass Minutemen vs Toledo Rockets

Date: Friday, March 13, 2026

Location: Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH

TV: CBSSN

Odds/Point Spread: UMass (+3)

Rocket Arena is where the Toledo Rockets (17-14) will take on the UMass Minutemen (16-15) on Friday in the MAC Semifinals. UMass opens this contest as 3-point dogs. The total comes in at 158.5.

The UMass Minutemen took the court against Ohio and earned the victory with a final of 94-82 in their last contest. When it comes to fouls, the Minutemen ended up with 21 and Ohio had 22 fouls. They also buried 5 out of their 28 attempts from distance. Ohio walked away from this one shooting 79.3% when shooting free throws by making 23 of 29 tries. Moreover, Ohio had 28 boards (10 offensive, 18 defensive), but wrapped up the game with no rejections. Ohio doled out 18 assists and had 5 steals for the contest. When talking about the defense, UMass let their opponent shoot 40.3% from the field on 27 out of 67 shooting. They also doled out 19 assists for the game in addition to creating 8 turnovers and getting 6 steals. In regard to pulling down rebounds, they earned a total of 33 with 8 of them being of the offensive variety. At the free throw line, the Minutemen made 27 of 35 shots for a rate of 77.1%. UMass wrapped up the game having earned a 52.6% field goal percentage (30 out of 57) and made 7 out of their 22 3-pointers.

Marcus Banks Jr. is one player who came through for the matchup. He went 53.3% from the floor and dished out 2 assists. He played 34 minutes and also snagged 1 board. He walked away with 31 points on 8 out of 15 shooting.

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UMass will take the court with a record of 16-15 so far this season. They are turning it over 13.1 times per contest and as a squad they commit 21.0 fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, UMass is pulling down 37.4 boards per game and has accumulated 538 dimes this year, which ranks 36th in Division 1 in terms of passing the rock. The Minutemen are shooting 35.4% on 3-pointers (241 of 680) and 67.4% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 80.5 points per game (78th in D-1) while hitting 46.9% from the field.

On defense, the Minutemen are able to force 12.4 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 19.1 fouls. They are surrendering 32.1% on 3-point shots while they are 279th in college hoops in PPG allowed (77.5). The Minutemen are giving up and opponent field goal percentage of 44.8% (791 of 1,767) and they surrender 32.3 boards per game as a unit. They currently rank 262nd in college in giving up assists to their opponents with 458 relinquished on the season.

In their last game, the Toledo Rockets got the victory with a final of 99-78 when they faced Buffalo. In reference to attacking the glass, Toledo allowed Buffalo to snag 29 overall (10 offensive). They finished 40.0% from distance by going 10 out of 25 and finished the game at 6 of 9 from the free throw line (66.7%). The Rockets permitted Buffalo to convert 31 out of 58 tries from the field which gave them a rate of 53.4% in this matchup. When all was said and done, the Rockets finished shooting 38 for 63 from the field which gave them a percentage of 60.3%. In terms of three-point shots, Toledo made 12 of their 24 tries (50.0%). They were able to knock down 11 of the free throw tries for a rate of 73.3%. Buffalo had 10 fouls in this contest which got the Rockets to the free throw line for a total of 15 tries. They also turned the ball over 6 times, while earning 9 steals in the game. The Rockets were able to corral 18 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive rebounds totaling 27 for this game.

Sonny Wilson ended up having an impact for the Rockets for this contest. He scored 24 points in his 36 mins on the court and added 4 assists in this contest. He buried 10 of 14 in the game giving him a field goal percentage of 71.4%, and added 4 rebounds.

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Toledo has a win-loss mark of 17-14 on the campaign. The Rockets are committing 14.9 personal fouls per contest and they go 76.8% from the charity stripe. They are earning an assist 16.1 times per game (59th in the country) and they turn it over 10.1 times per game. Toledo has scored 2,525 pts on the campaign (81.5 per game) and they average 34.1 boards per contest. As an offensive unit, the Rockets are connecting on 48.6% from the field, which is ranked 33rd in college.

The Toledo defense gives up 34.7% on shots from distance (263 of 759) and their opponents are knocking down 69.7% of their free throw shots. They have allowed 14.9 dimes and 34.9 boards per game, which has them ranked 287th and 220th in those categories on the defensive end. The Rockets on defense are ranked 258th in the country in points allowed per game with 76.8. They are forcing 12.7 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 46.9% from the field (321st in the country).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take UMass (+3)

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