UT Arlington Mavericks vs Tarleton State Texans Prediction, 3/5/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: UT Arlington Mavericks vs Tarleton State Texans

Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026

Location: Wisdom Gym in Stephenville, TX

TV: ESPN+

The Tarleton State Texans (14-16) will go up against the UT Arlington Mavericks (15-13) at Wisdom Gym on Thursday.

The UT Arlington Mavericks faced California Baptist and went home with a loss by a final score of 68-56 in their last contest. When it comes to personal fouls, the Mavericks finished with 13 and California Baptist finished the game with 16 personal fouls. They also converted 8 of 20 shots from downtown. California Baptist went 72.7% at the charity stripe by making 8 of 11 shots. Furthermore, California Baptist had 32 rebounds (8 offensive, 24 defensive), but wasn't able to record a block. California Baptist distributed 9 dimes and had 2 steals in this contest. With regard to defending, UT Arlington allowed the other team to go 45.6% from the floor on 26 out of 57 shooting. They also recorded 5 dimes for the matchup as well as forcing the other team into 8 turnovers and earning 5 steals. In regard to rebounding, they compiled 37 with 13 of them being on the offensive end. From the charity stripe, the Mavericks buried 11 of 16 tries for a percentage of 68.8%. UT Arlington finished the game with a 35.0% field goal percentage (21 out of 60) and knocked down 3 of their 18 3-pointers.

Casmir Chavis is a guy who was a major contributor for the game. He ended up scoring 15 points on 6 out of 11 shooting. He played 29 minutes played and snagged 6 rebounds. He finished the contest at 54.5% from the field and also earned 1 assist.

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UT Arlington comes into this one with a record of 15-13 this season. They are averaging 70.6 points per game (300th in college hoops) while connecting on 44.3% from the floor. The Mavericks are hitting 29.2% from downtown (142 of 486) and 70.7% from the free throw line. As a team, UT Arlington is pulling down 37.0 boards per game and has accumulated 346 dimes this season, which has them ranked 336th in Division 1 in terms of passing the rock. They lose possession by turning the ball over 14.0 times per contest and as a unit they are committing 18.9 fouls every game.

On the defensive end, the Mavericks are able to force 12.7 turnovers per game and they draw 18.2 personal fouls. They are conceding 27.3% on 3-point shots and they are 33rd in Division 1 in points per game allowed (67.4). Mavericks defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 42.2% (655 of 1,552) and they relinquish 31.7 boards per contest as a squad. They are ranked 22nd in college in allowing assists with 326 conceded so far this season.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Tarleton State Texans took a defeat with a final score of 82-67 against California Baptist. The Texans were able to snag 17 defensive boards and 16 offensive boards for a total of 33 for the game. They turned it over 17 times, while recording 5 steals in this matchup. California Baptist earned 21 personal fouls for the contest which got the Texans to the free throw line for a total of 23 shots. They were able to convert 18 of those for a clip of 78.3%. With regard to shooting from distance, Tarleton State made 3 out of 8 tries (37.5%). When this game wrapped up, the Texans ended up going 23 for 57 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 40.4%. The Texans permitted California Baptist to knock down 25 of their 59 tries from the floor which gave them a percentage of 42.4% for the matchup. They wrapped up this game 34.8% from distance by going 8 out of 23 and walked away from this one shooting 24 out of 29 from the charity stripe (82.8%). In regard to how they cleaned up the glass, Tarleton State allowed California Baptist to pull down 29 overall (14 offensive).

Dior Johnson ended up being a factor for the Texans for the contest. He tallied 24 points in his 29 minutes of playing time and added 3 dimes in this game. He converted 7 of 17 for the contest giving him a field goal percentage of 41.2%, and tallied 4 rebounds.

Tarleton State has a win-loss record of 14-16 so far this season. The Texans commit 19.7 fouls every game and they go 75.2% from the free throw line. They are getting an assist 11.4 times per contest (343rd in college hoops) and they are turning it over 14.5 times per contest. Tarleton State has tallied 2,247 points so far this season (74.9 per game) and they pull down 33.0 rebounds per game. As an offensive unit, the Texans are shooting 45.3% from the field, which ranks 186th in the nation.

The Texans on the defensive side of the court are 167th in Division 1 in points per game surrendered with 73.3. They are able to force 17.7 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 44.8% from the field (220th in D-1). The Tarleton State defense surrenders 34.5% on shots from behind the 3-point line (225 of 653) and their opposition knocks down 72.1% of their shots from the free throw line. They have relinquished 13.3 dimes and 34.6 rebounds per game, which has them ranked 173rd and 202nd in the nation.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take UT Arlington

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