Vanderbilt Commodores vs Florida Gators Prediction, 3/14/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Florida Gators

Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026

Location: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Vanderbilt (+7)

The Vanderbilt Commodores (24-7) are en route to Bridgestone Arena on Saturday where they will meet the Florida Gators (25-6) in the SEC Semifinals. Vanderbilt opens as 7-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The total is 161.

The Vanderbilt Commodores faced off with Tennessee and earned the victory with a final of 86-82 in their last contest. Vanderbilt ended the contest having earned a 52.9% field goal percentage (27 out of 51) and buried 5 of their 10 shots from distance. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Commodores converted 27 of 32 attempts for a percentage of 84.4%. With respect to grabbing rebounds, they earned 31 with 7 of them being of the offensive sort. They also distributed 10 assists for this game in addition to forcing the other team into 11 turnovers and getting 8 steals. Pertaining to the defense, Vanderbilt allowed the other team to shoot 44.3% from the floor on 31 of 70 shooting. Tennessee doled out 15 assists and had 7 steals for the game. Moreover, Tennessee pulled down 38 rebounds (17 offensive, 21 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. Tennessee finished the game shooting 66.7% from the free throw line by making 14 of their 21 shots. They also made 6 of their 24 tries from beyond the perimeter. With respect to personal fouls, the Commodores ended up finishing with 19 while Tennessee recorded 21 personal fouls.

Tyler Tanner is a player who played a role for the game. He finished shooting 77.8% from the field and earned 3 assists. He was on the hardwood for 35 minutes and also snagged 3 boards. He walked away with 25 points on 7 out of 9 shooting.

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Vanderbilt comes into this game with a mark of 24-7 this year. They are losing possession via turnover 9.7 times per game and as a squad are committing 19.5 personal fouls per game. As a unit, Vanderbilt is grabbing 35.8 boards per contest and has accounted for 509 assists on the year, which has them ranked 75th in D-1 in terms of passing the rock. The Commodores are shooting 35.4% on shots from downtown (296 of 837) and 78.3% from the free throw line. They currently have an average of 86.9 points per contest (13th in D-1) while going 47.9% from the floor.

When they are on the defensive end, the Commodores are forcing 12.9 turnovers per contest while drawing 19.2 fouls. They are ranked 23rd in college in allowing assists with 350 surrendered so far this year. The Commodores defensively are allowing a shooting percentage of 42.5% (770 of 1,813) and they concede 34.5 rebounds per game as a unit. They give up 31.4% on shots from downtown while they are 220th in college in points per game allowed (75.1).

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Florida Gators took home the win by a final score of 84-77 when they played Kentucky. In reference to how they attacked the glass, Florida allowed Kentucky to get 32 overall (12 offensive). They went 34.8% from three-point range via 8 of 23 and ended up going 17 of 21 from the charity stripe (81.0%). The Gators allowed Kentucky to make 26 of their 66 tries from the field which gave them a percentage of 39.4% in this game. In all, the Gators finished the game shooting 28 for 61 from the field which had them at 45.9%. When discussing shooting from beyond the arc, Florida knocked down 8 of their 18 tries (44.4%). They were able to knock down 20 of the free throws for a percentage of 62.5%. Kentucky committed 25 personal fouls in the game which got the Gators to the charity stripe for 32 tries. They also gave up possession of the ball 9 times, while getting 7 steals in this contest. The Gators recorded 27 defensive rebounds and 11 offensive rebounds for a total of 38 for this game.

Thomas Haugh ended up being a major contributor for the Gators in this matchup. He scored 20 points in his 37 mins of playing time and had 3 assists in the matchup. He converted 7 of 14 in this game for a field goal rate of 50.0%, and totaled 9 rebounds.

Florida has a win-loss record of 25-6 for the year. The Gators have committed 17.6 fouls per game and they shoot 70.8% from the charity stripe. They are dishing out assists 16.9 times per contest (34th in the country) and they lose possession via turnover 11.7 times per game. Florida has scored 2,719 pts on the year (87.7 per game) and they pull down 45.5 boards per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Gators are shooting 48.2% from the floor, which has them ranked 37th in Division 1.

The Florida defense gives up 32.2% on 3-point attempts (206 of 639) and opponents are making 71.8% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have relinquished 10.9 dimes and 31.2 boards every game, which ranks them 21st and 29th in those defensive categories. The Gators are ranked 117th in college in PPG allowed with 71.7. They are forcing 11.2 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 40.6% from the floor (28th in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Vanderbilt (+7)

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