Vermont Catamounts vs UMBC Retrievers Prediction, 3/14/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Vermont Catamounts vs UMBC Retrievers

Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026

Location: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore, MD

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: UMBC (-3)

Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena is where the UMBC Retrievers (23-8) will try to defeat the Vermont Catamounts (22-11) on Saturday in the American East Finals. Vermont is 3-point dogs. The over/under is 137.5.

The Vermont Catamounts played NJIT and went home with a win by a final score of 63-54 in their last game. In the matter of fouls, the Catamounts finished with 11 while NJIT recorded 16 fouls. They buried 7 out of their 22 shots from three-point range. NJIT finished 71.4% at the charity stripe by burying 5 of their 7 tries. In addition, NJIT snagged 32 rebounds (10 offensive, 22 defensive), but didn't notch a rejection. NJIT recorded 7 dimes and had 7 steals in this matchup. In terms of defense, Vermont allowed their opponent to shoot 36.2% from the floor on 21 of 58 shooting. They also distributed 9 assists for the matchup in addition to forcing the opposition into 11 turnovers and earning 8 steals. In terms of rebounding, they collected 31 with 6 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the free throw line, the Catamounts knocked down 10 of their 15 attempts for a percentage of 66.7%. Vermont finished the contest having earned a 41.8% field goal percentage (23 of 55) and converted 7 of their 25 shots from downtown.

Sean Blake is someone who was a contributor for the matchup. He totaled 14 points on 5 out of 10 shooting. He played for 31 minutes and pulled down 5 boards. He went 50.0% from the field and recorded 2 dimes.

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Vermont will enter this game with a win-loss record of 22-11 for the year. They cough up possession 9.5 times per game and as a team they commit 16.8 personal fouls every game. As a team, Vermont is snagging 34.9 boards per contest and is sitting with 426 assists on the year, which has them ranked 224th in college hoops in terms of passing the rock. The Catamounts are hitting 34.5% on three-point attempts (287 of 832) and 71.9% from the free throw line. They average 73.8 points per game (236th in college hoops) while hitting 46.4% from the field.

On the defensive end, the Catamounts are forcing 9.7 turnovers per contest while drawing 16.8 personal fouls. They concede 35.1% on shots from downtown and they are 45th in Division 1 in points per game allowed (68.4). The Catamounts defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 42.8% (764 of 1,786) and they concede 31.2 boards per game as a group. They rank 59th in Division 1 in giving up assists to the opposition with 379 relinquished for the year.

The last time they took the hardwood, the UMBC Retrievers took home the win by a final score of 91-69 when they played UMass Lowell. Regarding team rebounding, UMBC permitted UMass Lowell to snag 34 overall (15 offensive). They wrapped up this game 34.6% from 3-point land by hitting 9 out of 26 and finished the game at 10 of 11 from the free throw line (90.9%). The Retrievers allowed UMass Lowell to make 25 of 69 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 36.2% for the game. When all was said and done, the Retrievers shot 33 for 61 from the field which gave them a rate of 54.1%. When talking about shooting from distance, UMBC buried 9 out of their 20 tries (45.0%). They were able to convert 16 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 72.7%. UMass Lowell was called for 14 personal fouls in this matchup which got the Retrievers to the charity stripe for 22 tries. They turned it over 6 times, while recording 10 steals for the contest. The Retrievers collected 25 defensive rebounds and 11 offensive boards for a total of 36 for the game.

Jah'Likai King ended up being a major contributor for the Retrievers in the matchup. He made 7 of 14 for the contest for a field goal percentage of 50.0%, and accumulated 4 rebounds. He tallied 24 points in his 33 minutes on the court and totaled 1 assist in the matchup.

UMBC has a mark of 23-8 for the year. The Retrievers are responsible for committing 13.4 personal fouls every game and they connect on 75.8% from the charity stripe. They are getting an assist 12.4 times per game (291st in college) and they lose possession via turnover 9.6 times per contest. UMBC has earned 2,365 points on the season (76.3 per game) and they pull in 35.6 boards per game. When it comes to executing on offense, the Retrievers are hitting on 47.3% from the field, which has them ranked 62nd in the country.

The Retrievers are ranked 31st in college in points allowed per contest with 67.3. They have forced 10.4 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 42.4% from the floor (77th in the country). The UMBC defense allows 31.5% on shots from beyond the arc (212 of 674) and their opponents are knocking down 68.1% of their free throw attempts. They have surrendered 10.5 dimes and 33.2 total rebounds per game, which has them ranked 10th and 101st in those categories on the defensive end.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take UMBC (-3)

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