Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils

Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC

TV: ESPN+

The Virginia Cavaliers (25-3) are traveling to Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday where they will take on the Duke Blue Devils (26-2).

The Virginia Cavaliers stepped onto the hardwood against North Carolina State and notched a win by a score of 90-61 in their last game. In reference to fouls, the Cavaliers left the arena with 15 and North Carolina State accumulated 14 fouls. They converted 9 out of their 33 attempts from beyond the arc. North Carolina State ended up shooting 80.0% at the free throw line by converting 12 of 15 attempts. Additionally, North Carolina State totaled 30 rebounds (12 offensive, 18 defensive), but didn't have a block. North Carolina State doled out 14 assists and had 8 steals for this contest. In reference to the defense, Virginia allowed 29.4% from the field on 20 out of 68 shooting. They also doled out 17 assists in this matchup in addition to forcing 10 turnovers and getting 7 steals. Pertaining to rebounding, they compiled 37 with 6 of them being of the offensive variety. When they shot from the free throw line, the Cavaliers knocked down 16 of 18 tries for a percentage of 88.9%. Virginia wrapped up the contest with a 53.4% field goal percentage (31 out of 58) and made 12 of their 26 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Thijs De Ridder is a guy who was important in the game. He ended up shooting 70.0% from the floor and distributed 2 assists. He played for 26 minutes played and grabbed 4 boards. He ended up walking away with 19 points on 7 of 10 shooting.

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Virginia comes into this contest with a win-loss record of 25-3 so far this year. They cough up possession 10.9 times per contest and as a unit are committing 18.0 fouls every game. As a unit, Virginia is grabbing 41.3 boards per contest and has tallied 475 dimes this season, which has them ranked 49th in the nation in terms of passing. The Cavaliers are shooting 36.3% from downtown (287 of 790) and 71.1% from the free throw line. They have an average of 82.3 pts per game (55th in D-1) while hitting 46.8% from the floor.

When they are on the defensive end, the Cavaliers have forced 11.0 turnovers every game while drawing 18.0 fouls. They currently rank 39th in college in allowing assists to the opposition with 323 conceded on the year. The Cavaliers defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 39.3% (651 of 1,655) and they surrender 32.5 rebounds per game as a unit. They are conceding 30.0% on shots from beyond the arc and they are 38th in college in PPG from their opponents (67.8).

For their last game, the Duke Blue Devils walked away with a victory by a final of 100-56 when they faced Notre Dame. With respect to rebounding, Duke allowed Notre Dame to pull down 26 in total (5 on the offensive glass). They finished 26.9% from distance by shooting 7 out of 26 and finished the game at 11 out of 19 at the free throw line (57.9%). The Blue Devils permitted Notre Dame to convert 19 out of their 52 attempts from the floor which gave them a rate of 36.5% for this game. Overall, the Blue Devils ended up going 27 out of 59 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 45.8%. In the matter of shots from beyond the arc, Duke made 12 out of 33 attempts (36.4%). They were able to knock down 34 of those for a rate of 89.5%. Notre Dame earned 21 fouls for the matchup which took the Blue Devils to the charity stripe for a total of 38 attempts. They coughed up the ball 8 times, while earning 11 steals in this game. The Blue Devils were able to collect 33 defensive rebounds and 14 offensive boards totaling 47 for this game.

Cameron Boozer ended up being a factor for the Blue Devils for the matchup. He made 5 out of 8 for the game giving him a rate of 62.5%, and accumulated 13 rebounds. He scored 24 points in his 24 minutes on the court and accumulated 2 assists in this contest.

Duke has a mark of 26-2 on the campaign. The Blue Devils are committing 15.7 personal fouls every game and they shoot 72.5% from the charity stripe. They are dishing out assists 17.1 times per game (32nd in college hoops) and they turn the ball over 10.7 times per game. Duke has accumulated 2,325 pts on the campaign (83.0 per game) and they average 40.0 rebounds per contest. On the offensive side of the ball, the Blue Devils are hitting on 49.8% from the floor, which is 18th in D-1.

The Blue Devils defensively are ranked 3rd in the country in PPG given up with 62.9. They are forcing 12.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and allow teams to shoot 39.2% from the floor (10th in D-1). The Duke defense surrenders 30.6% on 3-point shots (224 of 732) and their opposition makes 70.1% of their free throw attempts. They surrender 11.8 dimes and 29.6 total rebounds per game, ranking them 58th and 12th in those categories.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Duke

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